Stock Market — Week 3

Matt Stein has your Week 3 stock market.

| 2 years ago
tom-brady

Stock Market — Week 3


tom-bradyA bevy of injuries to fantasy football stars overshadowed what was a rather interesting Week 2. Those owners who thought they had a dominant team with the likes of Robert Griffin III, A.J. Green and Jamaal Charles are now likely scrambling to find replacements on the waiver wire.

What ultimately made this past week so interesting in fantasy football were the struggles of some top players. Some of these issues were carried over from the first week of the season, while others were brand new struggles that need to be addressed.

Just like last week, we’re going to look at the stock of some of these struggling players. We’ll let you know whether they’re worth keeping your stock in, or if you should sell now while you still can.

SELL

Tom Brady – QB – New England Patriots

After a rocky first start against the Miami Dolphins, Brady bounced back to lead the Patriots to a win over the Minnesota Vikings. The problem for fantasy owners is that Brady hasn’t been “fantasy” good in either game.

He’s completing only 56.4 percent of his passes on the year to go along with 398 total passing yards. Sure, he hasn’t thrown an interception this year, but he’s also only tossed two touchdown passes, one in each game.

Brady’s 20.3 fantasy points on the year puts him behind fantasy studs like E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heck, Carson Palmer put up more points in his first game this year than Brady’s had in both games.

The problem with Brady is that he simply doesn’t have any weapons to throw to this year. All five of his top receivers have posted a negative grade for the season. Even when tight end Rob Gronkowski gets completely healthy, it’s hard to imagine Brady putting up major fantasy points.

Simply put, the Patriots no longer run their offense through Brady, and it’s absolutely time to sell him if you can.

Toby Gerhart – RB – Jacksonville Jaguars

One of the biggest risers during the offseason was Gerhart. The narrative was that Gerhart’s talents were hidden behind Adrian Peterson, he’d get fed the ball early and often in Jacksonville and finally prove to the world that he’s a legitimate RB1.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone that smoothly for Gerhart in his transition to a feature back. He’s currently the worst graded running back in the NFL by PFF, and his 3.7 fantasy points through two weeks are hilariously bad.

To make matters worse, the entire offense in Jacksonville looks pitiful through two games. They have the worst pass offense, second-worst run offense and the worst overall offense.

Gerhart is going to struggle to live up to his offseason hype, so sell him before it gets too late. 

Marques Colston – WR – New Orleans Saints

The No. 1 wide receiver for Drew Brees is always supposed to put up solid fantasy. For Colston, that’s been the case every year since he was drafted in the seventh round of the 2006 NFL draft.

This year, however, appears like it could be different for Colston and the Saints as a whole. Take his last game against the Cleveland Browns. With shutdown cornerback Joe Haden spending a good amount of time on tight end Jimmy Graham, Colston should have seen plenty of targets on Sunday. However, Colston saw exactly zero passes come his way during his 42 snaps on the field.

Combine that with the fact he only saw eight targets in Week 1, and Brees might want to spread the ball around a little too much this year. We also can’t forget about Colston’s two drops in Week 1, which are half as many drops as he had all of last year.

Now it’s certainly possible for a player to quickly turn things around in an offense like the one in New Orleans. For Colston, unfortunately, it’s more likely that things continue to trend downward during the 2014 season.

BUY

Nick Foles – QB – Philadelphia Eagles

If I were to ask 100 people who the worst graded PFF quarterback was through two games, no one would guess it was Foles. However, his -6.4 through Week 2 barely beats out Tony Romo and Matt Cassel.

The difference between Foles and Romo or Cassel is that Foles is a fantasy quarterback worth buying. His 8.0 yards per attempt is currently the eighth-most in the league. The fact that he plays in Chip Kelly’s high-scoring, fast-paced offense is another reason to buy Foles.

Sure, his three touchdowns and two interceptions leave quite a bit to be desired, but don’t be surprised if these numbers change for the better starting next week against the Washington Redskins.

Eddie Lacy – RB – Green Bay Packers

When you’re expected to be one of the top fantasy running backs and you’ve only rushed for 77 yards in two games, something has gone wrong. For Lacy, the problems he had are at least fixable.

For starters, Lacy has had a brutal two-game stretch to start the season. His first matchup was against the Seattle Seahawks, one of the best defenses in NFL history. Then he went up against the New York Jets, who currently are graded as the fifth-best run defense in the league.

Lacy gets a little easier matchup in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. Combine this with the fact that the Packers will remain committed to the run, and there’s no point in selling Lacy at this point.

  • Ian

    I disagree with your analysis of Brady. His low completion percentage is highly weighted toward the first week when he had to throw the ball 56 times. In Week 2, he completed 68% of his passes. Yes, he only has two scores on the season, but in Week 2 his defense played so effectively that all Brady had to do was manage the game and hand the ball off to Ridley to run the clock out.

    Rob Gronkowski is not the only receiver coming back from injury. Aaron Dobson is also working his way back to full speed. While you might grade all of Tom’s receivers negatively at the moment, the sample size is only two games. Once everyone has had a few more games under their belts, I think this offense will be humming and Brady will be a top 10 fantasy QB.

    • descender

      Brady’s completion percentage, yards and yards per attempt have been falling for 3 years. This is a trend that doesn’t like to go in reverse.

  • S

    Colston had “only” 8 targets in week 1. He may be declining, but an 8 target day is pretty good in that offense.