As with every week, I’ll be giving a primer of all Week 9 games, as well as highlighting the key match-ups. I’ll give you my picks and how confident I am in each, from a betting perspective. The confidence grade is on our patented -2 through +2 scale.
A positively graded prediction means that I feel good about the bet. If it’s zero, I’m on the fence. And if it’s negative, I really don’t like the line either way. For the season, I’m 27-21 on positively-graded picks against the spread, and 32-35-4 on all others.
Packers (-3) at Panthers
As bad as last week’s game was for Green Bay, I’m not giving up on the Packers yet. Their offensive line weakness on the edge is far less likely to get exploited this week against the Panthers edge rushers that have been around average this season. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had back-to-back negatively graded games since 2010. On the other side, Cam Newton has been doing it all for the Panthers offense, but I’m not sure he fits the blueprint for beating the Packers defense. Green Bay has been susceptible to accurate quarterbacks and short and intermediate routes. Newton’s 71.0 accuracy percentage is 23rd among quarterbacks and his 11.2 average depth of target is second highest.
Prediction: Packers 28, Panthers 24
Confidence grade: +0.5
Redskins at Patriots (-14)
What line is too high for the Pats in this one? As our own Jeff Dooley pointed out this week, Tom Brady is playing at the highest level of his career, even better than 2007. There hasn’t been anything a defense has thrown at him that Brady hasn’t had an answer for. And if the Jets and Bills couldn’t slow him down, the Redskins have little chance. So With the Pats all but guaranteed to put up 30+ points, the question becomes can Washington score in the mid-20’s to at least cover. They’ve scored 23 points or more in only three games this season. Against the Pats surprisingly good secondary that has only one player graded negatively, I don’t see the Redskins scoring enough to cover.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Redskins 21
Confidence grade: +0.5
Titans at Saints (-8)
Is it possible that the Saints are a legit contender this year? There are some glaring holes that have cost them, but there’s a lot more talent shining through on this roster than we thought through the first few weeks. Once Keenan Lewis can get healthy enough to relegate Brandon Browner, our lowest rated corner, to a more limited role their secondary will finally be competent. That being said their linebackers worry me a tad in this one. When Marcus Mariota is healthy, the Titans do a lot of things that put pressure on opposing linebackers. Quick play action, options, and Mariota’s ability to scramble will all stress a linebacker corps that has every member graded negatively this year.
Prediction: Saints 27, Titans 21
Confidence grade: -1
Dolphins at Bills (-3)
These teams have looked considerably different since Buffalo took the Dolphins to the woodshed in Miami for a 41-14 win. The Bills have lost three of their last four, although the ineptitude of E.J. Manuel played a big role in two of those losses. The Bills will have Tyrod Taylor back this week, but he won’t be facing the same team he saw in week 3. The Dolphins newfound offensive balance makes them much more dangerous. They’ve been doing a great job of getting Lamar Miller the ball out in space and that’s a bad matchup for Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown, who both rank among the bottom 10 at their respective linebacker positions.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 24
Confidence grade: +0.5
Rams at Vikings (-2)
The Todd Gurley train rolls into Minnesota this weekend where he faces a defense that has been among the stingiest in the NFL. The Vikings haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game all season long. The problem in Minnesota is that they’re only averaging 21 points per game, the 24th best in the league. So expect a low scoring affair in this one. What tips the scales for me is the play of the Vikings' linebackers this year against the run. Backup Audie Cole is filling in for Eric Kendricks and Gurley has made a living out of beating linebackers with the cutback on the Rams split zone runs.
Prediction: Rams 17, Vikings 14
Confidence grade: -0.5
Jaguars at Jets (-7)
The Jets defense is not nearly as bad as the last two weeks have suggested. Against a young quarterback like Blake Bortles, who is still mistake prone, I think they right the ship this week. The defining matchup in this one is the Jaguars offensive line, which is been in the bottom 10 for pass protection, facing the trio of Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, and Muhammad Wilkerson. While I still expect Todd Bowles to blitz heavily, those three should cause enough havoc for them to play more soft coverages on the outside and still be effective.
Prediction: Jets 27, Jaguars 17
Confidence grade: +0.5
Raiders at Steelers (-4.5)
Ben Roethlisberger definitely didn’t look 100 percent last week. With another week of healing, and without Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers offense should open up much more this week. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on this Raiders’ secondary to perform and I’m not confident they can hold up. The same thing can be said about Derek Carr against the Steelers secondary, but I’ll trust the veteran Roethlisberger at home.
Prediction: Steelers 35, Raiders 28
Confidence grade: -1.5
Giants (-3) at Buccaneers
Jameis Winston has graded out positively since his week 1 disaster and has already led the Bucs to more wins this season than they had in all of 2014. Doug Martin is our top graded running back at the moment and looks like the guy everyone expected he’d be after a fantastic rookie year. Jason Pierre-Paul might be back Sunday, but it’s unlikely that he’s back to a form already that can turn around a reeling defense. What worries me is the Giants deficiencies against the run of late. They have a team run defense grade of -28.6 over their last four games. If they let the Bucs protect Winston with a strong ground game, they’ll put up some points at home.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Giants 23
Confidence grade: 0
Falcons (-7) at 49ers
Blaine Gabbert is the starting quarterback for the 49ers Sunday.
Prediction: Falcons 21, 49ers 10
Confidence grade: +0.5
Broncos (-5) at Colts
The Last time these two teams met, Vontae Davis put together one of the best individual performances we’ve ever seen from a cornerback and the Colts advanced to the AFC Championship game. Now they both look like completely different teams. The Broncos defense is playing at a level we’ve never quite seen here at PFF. They rank in the top three in team run defense, pass rush, and pass coverage. That sort of dominance is unheard of. With Andrew Luck struggling to our second lowest quarterback grade this season, I don’t see how the Colts have much of a chance in this one.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Colts 20
Confidence grade: +1.5
Eagles (-2.5) at Cowboys
The Matt Cassel experiment has been about as successful as the Brandon Weeden experiment. Which is to say it’s been a nightmare. He just can’t get anything going down the field. In two games Cassel completed one pass targeted between 10-20 yards downfield. In their last meeting, the Cowboys employed a ton of man coverage and locked down the Eagles receivers, but everyone was locking down the Eagles then. Philadelphia’s offense has developed as the season has gone on, especially on the ground where they’ve run for over 150 yards in three straight games. Missing Jason Peters is a concern, especially with Greg Hardy manning the right end now for Dallas, but I think the Eagles still have success moving the ball.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Cowboys 16
Confidence grade: 0
Bears (-3.5) at Chargers
The Bears last four games have been decided by a total of nine points. The Chargers meanwhile have lost four straight games, but none by more than one score. So everything points to this one being a close game. Every weak I keep mentioning the Chargers fatal weakness: their offensive and defensive lines. Both of which grade extremely negatively. But the Bears lines themselves haven’t been proficient enough to make me believe they’ll exploit either of those weakness. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers have both been playing grading out slightly above average, so I’ll side with the home team in this one.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Bears 23
Confidence grade: -1
Season Record: 73-46 (59-56-4 ATS)
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