Spread picks and scores for every Week 14 game

Mike Renner makes spread picks and score predictions for every Week 14 game of the NFL season

| 11 months ago
(AP Photo/Joel Auerbach)

(AP Photo/Joel Auerbach)

Spread picks and scores for every Week 14 game

Bills (-1) at Eagles

Check out the above video to see the full explanation for this pick.

Prediction: Bills 24, Eagles 14
Confidence grade: +0.5

49ers at Browns (-1.5)

The 49ers have actually won two of their last four games, but this offense is still as dismal as any in the league. Besides being last in the league in scoring, they are also second to last in our overall offensive grades. Blaine Gabbert has been a step up from Colin Kaepernick, but his -4.6 passing grade doesn’t inspire confidence. I’ll side with Johnny Football in this one after he had the best game of his career (+2.3) in his last start against Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Browns 17, 49ers 13
Confidence grade: -1

Lions (-3) at Rams

Check out the above video to see the full explanation for this pick.

Prediction: Lions 20, Rams 10
Confidence grade: +1

Saints at Buccaneers (-4)

The New Orleans defense is a disaster and even though Drew Brees and the offense may be coming around, I don’t trust Brandon Browner, our lowest graded corner, to cover anyone on Tampa Bay at the moment. Jameis Winston has graded out as a top five quarterback over the past four weeks of the season and has been one of the most accurate deep passers in the NFL with a 42.2 accuracy percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield. This one looks like another classic Saints shootout and they don’t have the offensive weapons to win the high scoring games that they used to.

Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Saints 28
Confidence grade: 0

Titans at Jets (-7)

The Jets offense isn’t consistent enough for me to feel great spotting them a touchdown. Ryan Fitzpatrick has five games graded below -2.0 compared to only three at +2.0 or above. On the other side of the field, Marcus Mariota has graded positively in four of his last five games and is coming off his best outing of the season against Jacksonville. The Jets defensive line is too good for me to pick against them, but I don’t expect them to cover.

Prediction: Jets 24 Titans 20
Confidence grade: -1

Steelers at Bengals (-3)

The Steelers offense is as fun to watch as any in the NFL right now, and that’s bad news for the Bengals’ Dre Kirkpatrick. The fourth year corner has been a glaring weakness (-18.3 overall grade) on an otherwise stellar defense and he’ll have no place to hide against the Steelers deep receiving corps. Cincinnati got the best of Pittsburgh in their earlier matchup, but that was Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury. Big Ben has been the highest graded quarterback in the NFL since that game and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Bengals 28
Confidence grade: 0

Colts at Jaguars (Pick ‘Em)

Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a disastrous performance last Sunday night in Pittsburgh, but he wasn’t the only one who had a rough outing. The Colts secondary outside of Vontae Davis is a legitimate issue. Cornerback Greg Toler has given up 765 yards in coverage since returning from injury in week 5, the most in the NFL over that span by over 100 yards. That’s good news for Allen Robinson and Blake Bortles, who both have grades over +5.0 over their last three games.

Prediction: Jaguars 31, Colts 24
Confidence grade: -0.5

Chargers at Chiefs (-10)

The Chiefs are without Justin Houston again and that is just enough to push me away from picking them once again. The Chargers have no chance of running the ball with their offensive line still a disaster in our grading, but if Philip Rivers isn’t under quick pressure he can still move that offense by himself. Houston’s replacement, Dee Ford, has a -8.8 overall grade on 235 snaps this year. The Chargers have little chance to win, but I don’t see this as a blowout.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 17
Confidence grade: -1

Redskins at Bears (-3.5)

These two teams are very similar talent wise in my eyes, but heading into this one I give the edge to the Redskins because they have so much more on the line with the NFC East lead looming over them. Washington’s defensive line has to be one of the most underrated units in the NFL at them moment as they have five guys grading at +9.0 or higher. I anticipate Jay Cutler being under a good amount of pressure, and that doesn’t bode well for the Bears.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Bears 17
Confidence grade: -0.5

Falcons at Panthers (-9)

If they couldn’t stop the bleeding last week against the Bucs, there is little hope that this week’s game at Carolina will be any different. Atlanta has no one else that can get open besides Julio Jones and everyone knows it. Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson both have grades below -6.0 for the year. The Panthers are going to give help to Julio’s side and Matt Ryan is going to have a hard time finding anyone open against PFF’s top graded coverage defense. The only question is if the Panthers can score enough to cover and the way Cam Newton is playing right now I think they will.

Prediction: Panthers 30, Falcons 17
Confidence grade: -0.5

Seahawks (-12) at Ravens

We saw this scenario play out already earlier this year, except with Jimmy Clausen on the Bears. The Ravens have no realistic shot here and again the only question becomes by how much? I wrote earlier this week about how Russell Wilson has turned Seattle into an offensive juggernaut of late and I see him continuing his stellar play this weekend.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Ravens 9
Confidence grade: +0.5

Raiders at Broncos (-7)

Seven points seems fairly high, but if Brock Osweiler is on his game the Broncos are pretty close to unbeatable. The problem is that Osweiler has been inconsistent and his decision making has left a lot to be desired. The Raiders secondary has been much improved lately with the emergence of David Amerson (+4.8) at corner. Khalil Mack, our top ranked outside linebacker, should also have a big day against Denver’s pair of lowly graded tackles Ryan Harris and Michael Schofield. That being said, Denver’s defense is simply too good not to pick them to win, but I think it’s going to be close.

Prediction: Broncos 17, Raiders 16
Confidence grade: -0.5

Cowboys at Packers (-7)

Check out the above video to see the full explanation for this pick.

Prediction: Packers 27, Cowboys 13
Confidence grade: +0.5

Patriots (-3.5) at Texans

This line seems entirely too low if Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman truly are ready to play this weekend. The Texans defense has been fantastic of late, but no one was stopping the Patriots offense when it was actually at full strength. I don’t see any way the Texans offense that grades negatively in Passing, receiving, rushing, and run blocking can keep up.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Texans 20
Confidence grade: +0.5

Giants (-1.5) at Dolphins

The Dolphins offense has been scary bad over the past six games, having scored less than 21 points in all of them. That being said the Giants defense has been similarly futile with a bottom five grade in pass coverage and a bottom 10 grade in run defense. The difference for me is the Dolphins defensive line in this one. Olivier Vernon has been utterly dominant lately. His +27.7 grade over the last four weeks is by far the highest in the league and his 20 combined hits and sacks are four more than the next closest player. He should have a field day against Giants left tackle Ereck Flowers who has the lowest pass blocking grade of any left tackle this season.

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Giants 20
Confidence grade: -1.5


Season Record: 107-85 (94-96-2 ATS)


| Senior Analyst

Mike is a Senior Analyst at Pro Football Focus. His work has also been featured on The Washington Post, ESPN Insider, and 120 Sports.

  • fadguru

    I know the Bears are not looking like a playoff team, but Washington has issues winning on the road. That could be a looming factor for them going into this game.

    • crosseyedlemon

      The Skins may not be road warriors but the Bears are just 6-17-1 ATS over the past 24 home games. If I was forced to bet this game I’d probably play the UNDER.

  • crosseyedlemon

    The easiest pick on the board is obvious here. The Ravens have no reason to jeopardize a high spot on the draft board next season by winning games now.

  • ElyLake

    Has Renner had too much coffee? No issue with most of his picks, but he sounds like the guys who blurt out all the legal crap at high speed at the end of a radio commercial. Slow down, dude!

    • Mike Renner

      I definitely had too much coffee

  • evo34

    Cool it with the auto-play videos.. If I want to watch it, I’ll click on it. Christ.

  • geo2209

    Uhh maybe you haven’t seen it yet but Stephon Gilmore ain’t playing for Buffalo, and that is 3 day old news. So BUF has 1 good LB (Lawson) and 1 good CB (Darby) and decent safeties. That leaves enough room for Philly to attack whoever is on Jordan Matthews and/or run Ertz at the crappy LBs on the right side. This game could very well be a shootout.

    • crosseyedlemon

      It’s rather bizarre that the schedule makers would have the Bills playing 3 consecutive games against NFC East opponents in December. With the high flying Cardinals on deck for the Eagles this is a game they absolutely have to win to have any chance at the playoffs.