Sets, Snaps, & Stats: Week 15

Pat Thorman examines the fantasy impact of up-tempo offenses and other emerging trends after 15 weeks of NFL action.

| 3 years ago

Pat Thorman examines the fantasy impact of up-tempo offenses and other emerging trends after 15 weeks of NFL action.

Sets, Snaps, & Stats: Week 15


deangeloThe weekly Sets, Snaps and Stats report is a summary of participation, formation, target and other data mined by PFF’s game charters. Used with PFF Fantasy’s own signature stats, our aim – as always – is identifying relevant trends to provide out subscribers with a competitive advantage.

With 15 weeks of action already in the books, fantasy Super Bowl week is upon us. There are plenty of player notes to get to below, so let’s get right down to business…

Ranking

Week 15 Snaps

2013 Snaps (Avg/Gm)

Opponents (Avg/Gm)

1st

New Orleans (81)

Denver (72.3)

Philadelphia (73)

2nd

Tennessee (80)

New England (72)

Minnesota (70.2)

3rd

New England (78)

Buffalo (69.4)

New England (69.6)

4th

Minnesota (73)

Washington (69.1)

Cleveland (69.4)

5th

Oakland (73)

Houston (68.8)

Buffalo (69.2)

Week 15 marked the first time that New Orleans surpassed the 80 play mark. Actually it was the first time that they reached 75 plays, and it had much to do with trailing for most of the game in St. Louis. When their preferred game script is flipped the Saints tend to look especially disorganized. They use the entire play clock on most downs due to a tendency to make wholesale substitutions between snaps. They did finally bench left tackle liability Charles Brown (-13.6 pass block grade), and will replace him with rookie Terron Armstead. While it should only help, that it did not occur sooner should give pause …and Drew Brees owners the shakes.

Just outside the top five for most Week 15 plays sit the Jaguars and Bills, both with 72. Buffalo went up-tempo on 51.3 percent of snaps, their largest percentage since E.J. Manuel’s (initial) injury. Jacksonville finally stopped toying with the idea and used the no-huddle on 33.3 percent of their plays a week after that number was 14 percent. The Broncos overwhelmed the Titans with the hurry-up two weeks ago, and the Jags face them in Week 16. Obvious talent differences apply, but look for Chad Henne to push the tempo when Tennessee heads to Jacksonville.

Ranking

Week 15 Snaps

2013 Snaps (Avg/Gm)

Opponents (Avg/Gm)

32nd

Tampa Bay (50)

Dallas (60)

Carolina (58.9)

31st

Kansas City (51)

San Francisco (60.6)

Houston (59)

30th

N.Y. Giants (53)

N.Y. Giants (61.1)

San Diego (59.6)

29th

Denver (53)

St. Louis (61.1)

New Orleans (59.8)

28th

St. Louis (54)

Seattle (61.3)

DET/CHI (61.5)

Things continue to unravel for the Giants, and they could only manage 53 snaps against the Seahawks while in catch up mode for most of the afternoon. Over the last five weeks they have run 3.7 fewer plays than their seasonal average and have not run 70 plays since before their Week 9 bye. Considering they next play a Lions team that surrenders just 54.2 plays per home game, the streak will likely continue. Their defense has toughened up considerably and New York has allowed 3.2 fewer plays than their yearly per game average (65.4) over the last five weeks. There is just not very much fantasy goodness spilling out of Giants games at this point.

One week after setting their season high for snaps (91) against Tennessee, the Broncos dug a new floor. The 53 plays run against the Chargers were 13 fewer than their previous low set in Week 13 against the Chiefs. If the pattern continues they will hit at least 92 plays against a Houston team that has given up the second fewest plays per game on the season (59), but the 18th most (64.8) in the last five weeks. And if that bit of trivia means anything more to you than “things that make you go, hmmmm,” please send word.

Okay then, moving on….

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

The Browns have run 2.6 more plays over the last five weeks than a seasonal average that ranks as the ninth most in the league. The Jets have run 5.9 fewer plays than their yearly per game average (26th most), and given up 2.8 per game more during that same five week timeframe. This has a lot to do with New York remaining stout against the run, but watching their pass defense deteriorate to Kotite-level ineptitude. That works for the Browns, who like to throw even when the matchup says run. The only monkey wrench appears to be a forecast that calls for wind and rain, which actually may aid Geno Smith’s Accuracy Percentage (Acc. % 66.8; Last).

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Please note that penalty plays are removed from the snap totals and will differ from what is posted in our Premium Statistics game logs.

Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman



Pat Thorman is a lead writer for PFF Fantasy and a Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner.

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