Sell Devonta Freeman while you can

Mike Tagliere dives into the Week 4 fantasy stock market, and tells you why Karlos Williams needs to be on all of your fantasy teams.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Brad Penner)

(AP Photo/Brad Penner)

Sell Devonta Freeman while you can

Last week, a friend came over to talk about some football related things, daily fantasy sports (DFS) in particular. We were going through lineups and talking about the players we liked and disliked in Week 3.

We came across James Jones, who I happened to like as the games got closer, due to Davante Adams being nicked up and missing practice time. Jones had been in my “sell” section of this article just two short weeks ago.

He said to me, “Mike, I thought you didn’t like James Jones? He was in your ‘sell high’ piece right after Week 1!”

I’ve also had a few people ask me about certain players on Twitter, and why I would want to sell a player that has performed so well. There have also been questions about whether they should they drop a player because he was in my sell column.

Because a player shows up in my sell column doesn’t mean he should be dropped or even traded if you’re not getting proper value. The point of these buys and sells are so that you can maximize your dollar.

How do you think day traders make their money? They take their dollar and buy a stock. That stock goes up to $1.50, they sell it. It doesn’t mean it’s a bad stock, it’s just overvalued at that point. When that stock price drops back down to a dollar, they are buying again. They are making money.

It doesn’t always work out for them, but most of the time, it does. So let’s jump in and see who are we day trading this week.

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  • Mike Ryan

    Great advice on trades.

    — Says No one

    • Matt

      nice criticism… What don’t you like about his advice?

      • DrippingPP

        Probably a delusional and reactionary Freeman owner. Lots of that going around lately.

        • Justin Blalock

          How about the delusional and in-denial Coleman owners? Lots of those too, lately.

          Freeman is clearly overachieving, but he’s also not going anywhere. He’s a much more complete RB than Coleman, who has stiff hips, little power despite his size, and has no trust at all from the coaching staff on passing-downs (even when Freeman was injured, undrafted rookie Terron Ward was still subbing in for Coleman on passing-downs).

          When Coleman’s back, Freeman will still be the best RB to own in that Atlanta buzz-saw offense. He’ll be getting most of the red-zone carries and all the passing-down work. His weekly floor will be higher and he’ll be much more game-flow immune thanks to the projected passing-game usage (he’s a legit threat for 60+ receptions this year, committee or not).

          People were waaaaay too high on Coleman because of his college stats, dynasty and redraft. He’s a limited player. Freakish at beating pursuit angles, but that’s about it. Below-average vision, rarely breaks tackles, always needs his hips square to get forward, doesn’t run routes with any instinct and doesn’t catch with any body-control. He’s an overhyped future change-of-pace talent.

      • Mike Ryan

        I actually like Dalton and his weapons. Is he “Elite” no but for fantasy he’s a solid option. He has very good weapons on the outside and a great defense so he gets a lot of touches. I don’t like A. Luck, he turns the ball over way too much, he now has a right shoulder injury (his throwing shoulder). Is Dalton going to the Hall, no but he’s having a solid year and sometimes you can ride that out vs punting.

        Devonta Freeman I think is a steal at RB, he he gets a lot of touches, including catches and he is their featured option in the redzone. Let it play out and see how far he takes you. If he was a Gem a week ago let him start dropping in usage before bailing.

        • Greg Johnson

          If you wait until his usage drops, you’re not selling at his highest value now are you?

          • Mike Ryan

            Who’s usage is going to drop? Dalton is the starting QB and Freeman accounts for 4/5 rushing tds, 40% of the teams total Tds, he can catch out the backfield and not to mention Atl runs the ball frequently in the redzone. Hold tight to see how it plays out, could have a ball player. Reminds me of Peyton Hillis breakout year, wasn’t historically talented but I rode him to the ‘ship. Also I would like to see #’s support a theory vs “due to turn it around” or talk like that, especially at PFF.

  • anthony

    great stuff. i have freeman but no one will bite on him.. i have marshall and someone wants to trade for him for kelce, matt jones with either hurns or benjamin. would you take hurns or benjamin?

  • Justin Blalock

    Freeman probably is an ideal sell-high, but it does need to be sell HIGH. Don’t just sell for anything.

    I still see him retaining weekly RB2 value with Coleman back. Passing game and red-zone usage, likely game-flow immunity, at worst a share of early-down carries, and all of that in an ascending offense clicking with Kyle Shany as OC. Meanwhile Coleman will probably rely on breaking big runs with 10 or so carries a game to get an owner a good fantasy day.

    I certainly doubt Freeman can retain RB1 value with Coleman back. But considering few redraft teams actually drafted him to be their RB1/2 this year, Freeman breaking out as a probable solid RB2 going forward can perhaps make him the surprise piece that puts an already good line-up over the top for league-winning purposes.

    So if you sell him, get something legitimately tier 1. If you trade for something tier 2, unless you’re addressing a deficiency at another position, you’re probably just making a lateral move.

  • Justin Blalock

    Welp, two weeks later, two more demolitions, and Freeman’s schedule the rest of the year is heavenly, on paper. Especially check out the fantasy playoff weeks.

    Article faceplant.

    • Mike Ryan

      Freeman is carrying many teams to victory… full PPR and he’s getting 8 touches out the backfield with full usage. At some point he has to regress to the mean of TD’s… right?! But if Julio is hurt or nursing an injury I expect Freeman to continue his workload and production, but no way he continues this pace.

      • Justin Blalock

        Agreed. But his weekly average could drop off by 10 full points, and he’ll still be a fantasy league winning asset for many teams.