Is Darrelle Revis Slowing Down?

Are the Jets catching Darrelle Revis at the beginning of his decline? Sam Monson explores the early signs.

| 2 years ago
revis-decline-1

Is Darrelle Revis Slowing Down?


revis-decline-1NFL careers tend to resemble a bell curve. Most players start slowly enough, develop into their prime, peak, and then decline before eventually leaving the league, calling it a career or having the league do it for them.

There are exceptions to this. Some players start fast out of the gate, dominating from the outset. Some players walk away at the top, still in their prime. But most players, no matter how good, will see the final years of their career marked by a decline in play. How sharp that decline is and how good they were to begin with determines how long they have left before it’s time to move on.

Anybody that deals with personnel in the NFL is facing a constant juggling act of anticipating this decline and structuring contracts accordingly. When you sign a player that is approaching the usual years of decline, you must be acutely aware that he may at some point fail to live up to the contract he is signing.

That brings us to Darrelle Revis – the best paid corner in the game. I don’t just mean that in reference to the latest deal he signed with the Jets, but Revis has been a master at maximizing his dollar value throughout his career, and so returns to New York for a second stint under some pretty gaudy looking contract numbers.

Even if we ignore the headline figures – the contract is ostensibly a five-year $70 million deal – on the basis that the final two years are almost certainly entirely fictional, designed to make people look good and to play with the salary cap, Revis is going to be paid huge money for the next two to three seasons.

The question is will he justify that money, or are the Jets catching him at the beginning of his decline?

revis-decline-inset

I’ve dug myself a hole before by predicting declines, but there are signs already that Revis isn’t what he once was.

I’ll say up front that there are a bunch of mitigating circumstances to that. He has worked his way through multiple stops, schemes and coaches in rapid succession, is still not that far removed from major knee surgery, and even within the Patriots’ defense this season saw his role change and evolve as the year went on.

Also, it’s worth pointing out that Revis still played very well this year.

He finished the season as the fourth-ranked corner in both overall PFF and coverage grades. He notched 11 pass breakups and allowed just 51.9% of the passes sent his way to be caught while ranking at the sharp end of all of the advanced coverage metrics we track.

Only two corners went more coverage snaps per reception allowed than the 14.8 Revis managed. Only Richard Sherman was targeted less frequently and Revis’ 0.92 yards per coverage snap was good enough to rank eighth in the league.

So what’s the problem?

Well, despite all those numbers there was a lot of bad in his tape that you typically don’t find in a Revis season. Plays where he just got flat out beat.

Every cornerback gives up catches. They all give up a touchdown eventually. The 2009 performance from Revis was the best coverage display from a cornerback we have seen in a decade, and he still allowed 41 receptions, was beaten for two scores and 425 yards on the season. The difference between Revis this season and Revis in 2009 is that this season he gave up plays where he was nowhere. In 2009 when he got beat he was still all over the guy, in close coverage and making the receiver work for the play.

That all sounds a little vague and easy to dismiss, but if we go hunting in the tape for examples to back it up we don’t need to go very far into the season to get a great one. Revis looked terrified of Mike Wallace in the opening game of the season against Miami. He gave up monster cushions for most of the game and put himself in a position of needing to bite hard on the first move Wallace showed him, because he was so far off in coverage. That almost cost him big when Wallace gave him a double move in the second quarter. Take a look:

Revis

Revis bit hard on the first move and was torched by the second. Look at the route – it’s not devastating move from Wallace, Revis just took himself out of the play and was in absolutely no position to play the ball when it arrived, acting merely as spectator as Tannehill and Wallace failed to complete the deal between them.

We can all agree that’s a horrible play, but as I said earlier, everyone gets beat occasionally. Maybe It’s just one bad play in a fine season from Revis, after all I’ve already pointed out how good his grade and numbers were overall. I didn’t have any problem finding that bad a play in his tape. I quickly pulled out a list of a dozen ugly plays from his regular season in coverage from the PFF database.

Working through that cut up tape showed up a variety of different receivers giving Revis problems. Eric Decker beat him a couple of times, Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, and in the playoffs there was Steve Smith beating him badly for a score.

He was beaten in a variety of different routes and coverages, but one word kept coming to mind watching him on these plays: slow.

revis-decline-2What’s particularly interesting is that he looked slow in both ways – deep speed and quickness off the line. On a few routes players beat him immediately at the jam; Sanders, in particular, racking up a 17-yard gain by taking Revis out in the first step of his release. Revis has always been at his best when he can jam a receiver at the line, but he always had the speed and quickness to mirror him even when he couldn’t jam – say if they were off the line of scrimmage. That now seems less than a given.

Several times Revis struggled to match the release of his man when the receiver was off the line of scrimmage, giving them a free release into their route and putting him on the back foot, scrambling to make up position on the pattern and occasionally getting flagged for being too eager to do so.

Lastly, and perhaps most interestingly – I think Revis knows exactly where he is in terms of his speed and quickness. On a few of these plays you can see Revis trying to protect himself against the release, cheating in his technique to avoid having to try and stay with a receiver at the line.

This tape reel was a cut up of his worst play in coverage of 2014, so obviously it’s going to look bad, but the question is whether it’s showing the beginnings of something we should be concerned by for Revis. And I think it is.

His overall play was still excellent, and I would expect that to be true for 2015, but his aura of invincibility is dissolving. Players no longer fear getting stranded on Revis Island, because the tape shows you can now escape and make big plays.

Revis will be a fine corner again in 2015, but he’ll also be earning $16m, so you would certainly hope so. In 2016, he’ll be earning $17m, and the year after $15.3m. Somewhere along that timeline I think the decline in his physical skills is going to mean he no longer justifies that money. If it’s 2017 the Jets timed the contract perfectly, because just $6m of that year is guaranteed. If it’s before that, then the Jets miscalculated and could have a costly mistake on their hands.

 

Follow Sam on Twitter: @PFF_Sam

 

 

| Senior Analyst

Sam is a Senior Analyst at Pro Football Focus, as well as a contributor to ESPN.

  • davathon

    That’s one good thing you can say about the Dolphins signing Suh. They overpaid, but at least they got him in his prime. Suh may still be an up arrow guy, as talented as he is. Paying players as old as Revis is always a concern. Usually DBs have a little more shelf life though. I bet he’ll still be a top 5 CB for the next 2 years.

    • Jay

      yeah he will be good for a few years, IMO his game doesn’t rely on athleticism…He is a technician and players like that will last longer….Cromartie’s game to me is built more on athleticism and you will see a decline in his game sooner…..

      • Jeff

        Which is why his 4yr deal is essentially a 1yr – 7 million dollar deal

        • Tony Richardson

          I was under the impression Cromartie’s contract was guaranteed for 2 years 15 mill. so essentially a 2 year deal, am I mistaken?

          • Anonymous

            Yeah it’s actually only the first year guaranteed

  • ringlis44

    I said to a Jets fan that the two concerns I had with Revis after watching all Pats games this season was deep speed and close on in breaking routes.

    His top speed wasn’t there and he was susceptible to slants and digs defending a top end speed wideout.

    With average speed or average route runners, Revis is more than adequate in eliminating a receiver from the LOS to a 20 yd depth. Is it age or still recovery from the knee, I guess we’ll see this year.

    • McGeorge

      I agree with you, but Woody Johnson (the Jets owner) wanted him back.
      The Jets spent a huge amount of money in the off season, and I think it wasn’t spent well.

      • cousinrk

        It wasn’t spent well? How so exactly? They had the worst corner situation in the sport and signed 3 of them including the best on the market. They have a coach that requires having multiple corners for his system. You do know the Jets by league rule were required to spend almost all their cap room right? Because they didn’t spend a lot the last two years they were spending at 81% and league rules say you need to spend 88% over a 3 year period. So they Jets had to make that up. What free agents did they miss on? Or is this just a Pats fan trying to find any way to take a shot at the Jets?

        • Jay

          Just a Pats fan bro…They are all saying the same thing

          • McGeorge

            I’m not a Pats fan, though I do think Belichick is pretty damn smart and runs his team better than most.

          • SeattleSteve

            4 superbowls vs the jets this last decade.

            I’d take the pat’s fans advice on football matters.

        • McGeorge

          >> Or is this just a Pats fan trying to find any way to take a shot at the Jets?

          I wish I was a Pats fan, because they are well run. Sadly I’m not. I grew up near Shea stadium and have always followed the Jets.

          The Jets had a terrible CB situation, and were forced to spend some money. The figures you state are incorrect though. I’m ok with some forced spending, and getting Revis does fill a big hole, even if he’s over paid. I have more of a problem with throwing away 7.5MM/yr for 2 years on David Harris.

          The Jets aren’t going to contend this year, so they shouldn’t throw away all their money. Roll it forward, and in a few years if they drafted well, they will benefit from the unspent money. Spend enough to make the team “not atrocious” but not as much as they did.

          • Klaas Jan

            They had to spend 89% of their cap or face deductions from the NFL

          • McGeorge

            They have to spend 89% over 4 years.
            So they have to spend a certain excess this year, and could spend more excess next year.
            It was under Idzik that they failed to meet the floor, so they have an extra year.

          • joe

            Yup. Overpaid Harris.

      • Jay

        I don’t care how the money was spent. We had a need and we addressed it… the cap gets higher every year we will be fine…

        • McGeorge

          I care, because I follow teams long term.
          Crash and burn doesn’t cut it for me.

          The cap may stabilize at some point. A few years ago it was flatish for 2-3 years. Even if the cap rises, how much will it rise? It may not be 10MM/year. It may be a lot smaller.

          Spending money on David Harris is throwing money away that could better be used when the Jets are improved through drafting. Thats how to get the most value for your money, not through free agency.

          • RandomGuy

            They had a lot of cap room this year, didn’t they. So they had to spend a good portion of it.

          • McGeorge

            Yes, they needed to spend some, but not as much as they did.
            I can see signing Revis, since their secondary is terrible.
            But not some of the others, especially not Harris.
            Cromarties contract is just for 1 year, so that’s not the end of the world.

          • Dane Voeltz

            it’s 89% over 4 years, and the jets needed to spend about 97% this year to hit league minimums.

          • McGeorge

            I’m not saying they didn’t need to spend, just that they didn’t need to throw away money. And since it’s over 4 years they could have spent next year as well.

          • Anonymous

            They didn’t throw it away. They signed positions of need. It’s not like they spent big money on a defensive lineman when they already have 2 great young ones. They spent on positions they needed. Was there a middle linebacker available that is better than David Harris, that is well respected within the team that could easily fit into his role? If there was one better, how much did that player earn vs. what Harris earned?

            They actually upgraded at WR (Marshall > Harvin) while LOWERING the overall WR cap number.

          • Anonymous

            See my post above. They had to spend EXACTLY as much as they have. The 4 year cap spending is an 89% average. And in 2013 and 2014 they only spent 81% of their cap. Meaning in 2015 and 2016 they have to average 97% spending of their available cap space.

            Now that I do the numbers, they actually have $7 million MORE they have to spend. Some of that will be on draft picks, minimum contracts (vickerson, brewer, kellen davis, etc) and I presume the rest will be for Big Mo’s potential cap number increase.

          • McGeorge

            They need to spend something like 35MM over the floor to get up to the minimum spending amount. They’ve spent a lot more than that.

          • Anonymous

            Revis $16MM, Cromartie 7MM, Skrine $2.75MM, Harris 7.5MM, Carpenter $2.35MM, Gilchrist $3.125MM, = $39MM in spending. Then they cut Harvin which was a $3MM savings (Marshall vs. Harvin contracts) for $36MM. So like I said, they spent EXACTLY as much as they were supposed to.

            As of today, they have $11.8 million in cap space for draft picks and Big Mo. And then they still need to get to 97% of this year’s cap.

          • Corey Szczebak

            Only reason your in that situation is because you have the worst QB in the league you barely have to pay

          • Anonymous

            That’s fine. Hopefully they draft one who plays well and they can continue to pay on the cheap for a few years (aka. the Seahawks plan they’ve been executing for the past 4 seasons).

          • McGeorge

            They did have to spend a lot, but not all of it, some could have been spent next year.
            Throwing money away on David Harris is a waste. He’s not worth that kind of money.

          • Anonymous

            They still have about $12 million in cap space this season. And next season over $20 million (based on projected cap) with already 41 players under contract. Notice how all of their “overspends” are most of the guaranteed money in this year and next. That is because of the cap floor spending requirement. They’re in excellent cap situation both this season, next, and those beyond these two. Also, they could easily rework dbrickashaw’s contract to lower his $14 million cap number next season to free up even more room if they needed to next season.

            Big Mo’s cap number this season is already $7 million. They could even give him an extension that RAISES his cap number and still have $6 million to roll over after factoring in draft picks. Seems to me they spent EXACTLY what they were required to spend, and upgraded several positions of need with only surrendering 2 late round draft choices and getting one back.

            So please explain to me how they have put themselves in a bad cap situation. Revis and Harris are “overpays” only if you don’t take into context what they had to spend. Also, with Revis, that’s what he’s been earning and that’s what he’s been worth. So it’s only and overpay if he doesn’t perform to his usual level this year and next.

            http://www.overthecap.com

            Contrast that with the Patriots, who only have $6 million for this year and their 6th highest cap number is for a guy that’s not on the team anymore (Revis).

          • McGeorge

            I didn’t ever say they put them selves in a bad cap situation.
            I said they pissed away some money on mediocre players. They could have spent a little less this year, and signed more (and better) next year. I’d rather lose David Harris and then over pay Mo Wilkerson, rather than risk losing him.

            The Jets are still a mediocre team at best, no need to blow all their money trying for one extra win.

            They should make sure they spend the 89% minimum, and roll over the remaining 11%, year to year. Then if they draft well, they will have 30-45 Million for stud free agents in a couple of years.

          • Anonymous

            You seem like a smart guy but I’m not sure you’re grasping the whole “cap floor” thing. They physically can’t roll over 11% this year, because then they wouldn’t physically be able to spend enough next year in order to meet the 4 year average requirement.

            “They should make sure they spend the 89% minimum”…89% AVERAGE. Which is exactly what they are doing. I just showed you how they have enough money to pay Mo Wilkerson an “overpay” and still be in a good cap situation. The money HAD to be spent. They chose to spend it on their own guy in Harris.

            Otherwise they’d be “overpaying” someone else. Also, Harris is not mediocre. He’s not All-Pro, but he’s not mediocre. Other than that, who did they “overpay” that is mediocre? Skrine? Look what corners got. Byron freaking Maxwell got $10 million a year. So how is Skrine overpaid?

            Who would you rather have paid, since it’s established that someone had to be paid, that is not mediocre?

          • Klaas Jan

            The Jets spent a large amount of money, but the only money they have tied up long term (when factoring guarantees) are between Revis and Skrine. Obviously Revis will hit the decline at some point, but there’s a very large probability he will still be playing at a high level come the 2017 season. I agree they may have slightly overspent, but it’s nowhere near where everyone is making it out to be

          • Dane Voeltz

            It was also an overpayment to keep Harris away from Rex and Tannenbaum.

          • McGeorge

            Of course it was an over payment. Who cares where he goes, he’s slow.
            Let Rex have him for 6.5MM and ruin the Bills more than he has.

        • Corey Szczebak

          Cap goes up every year, but players also want more money every year so the cap increase doesnt matter.

          • eYeDEF

            Except that’s not true. In 2012 the cap stayed relatively flat at 120 mil and in 2011 the cap actually went down from the uncapped year in 2010. That forced the players in the subsequent free agent periods to take far cheaper deals than they were expecting.

      • http://nflbuddha.blogspot.ca/ Frank Cole

        New York Jets 3 at New England Patriots 45

        Monday, December 6, 2010

        The staring corners, now 5 years older, were Revis & Cro’

        • Anonymous

          Same season:

          New York Jets 28 at New England Patriots 14….in the playoffs.

        • Dan Weinberg

          Right on the money, the Pats trolls are here!

  • Gary Brand

    Can you provide the reel?

  • Eag97a

    Revis might be declining or not we will see it soon enough but I’m sure despite his monstrous contract he will provide some value to the Jets barring an unforseen injury, the main problem of the Jets amongst others is the QB situation and the offense and I know this article isn’t about that but Revis’ contract and salary cap implications does impact that side of the ball.

    • Klaas Jan

      They can afford Revis’ contract because they have very little money tied up at the QB position. The Jets will likely look to draft a QB in this upcoming draft or the following one, so they can get away with paying Revis that large sum because they will most likely have a veteran QB on a small contract or a rookie also on a small contract.

  • Anonymous

    Couple things:

    1. Comparing Revis’s 2009 season to anything or anyone else for that matter isn’t fair because as you said, it’s the best season basically ever by a corner. At least since advanced coverage metrics have been around.

    2. Out of 1,000 coverage snaps, that you were able to pull out a handful of bad plays doesn’t necessarily mean he is declining. In 2010, he gave up 4 TD’s, didn’t have a single INT and was still unanimous first team All-Pro. In 2011 he gave up 3 TD’s. The point is there is going to be bad plays, no one NEVER gets beat, even you point this out about 2009.

    3. I didn’t see a “loss of aura of invicibility”. I certainly saw Russell Wilson afraid to throw at him. I saw the Bills and Vikings afraid to throw at him. The teams that weren’t afraid to throw at him were punished: Bears, Bengals, Lions.

    Compare his coverage grades from 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013 to this year. Don’t compare the superhuman performance of 2009. He got beat a few times. He also got unlucky a few times too. The TD Wallace did catch on him he actually deflected the pass. He also had a pick against AJ Green that was called back for a penalty unrelated to him.

    The point is, you can find plays like the one you showed in every season for every corner. That doesn’t mean they are declining. He just received 42 of 50 first team All-Pro votes. He’s still the best CB in the NFL. Whether he stays that way for the next 3 years I don’t know. But I didn’t see a decline from 2014 compared to 2011-2012. If anything, he actually got BETTER from 2013 compared to 2014 (and he ranked 1st in coverage metrics in 2013 playing injured).

    • Darnell

      I believe Wilson threw a TD on him actually

      • anon

        when the ref ran into Revis…

      • Anonymous

        And that was the only pass he threw in his direction the entire game, it was for 3 yards and the referee picked him. As a matter of fact, that play actually prove the point further. Baldwin had to run 5 yards clear of the tackle box before Wilson would even look at him. And Revis had stopped even pursuing by then.

    • Mauha Deeb

      Revus looks slow now and is late to catch up from his mistakes. Now that his island is gone, he will be targeted more often and those 10 or so bad plays will turn into 20-30.

      • Anonymous

        I think you completely missed the point of what I said. Even in 2009 there was “10 or so bad plays”. Does that mean he was “slowing down” then?

        Ask AJ Green or Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin if they think he’s slowing down.

        Sure they see the bad plays on tape, but they also see hundreds and hundreds of good ones. The receivers get paid too, they’re going to win some. You know what else they’re gonna find on tape, the Lions couldn’t complete a back shoulder to Calvin freaking Johnson against a “slowing down” Revis. Should be the easiest TD in all of football and Revis defended it perfectly. I’m certain there will be QB’s afraid to throw at him, and those that aren’t, he’ll make them pay more than they make him pay.

        Like Marshawn so eloquently said, “I know imma get got, but I’m gon’ get mine more than I get got, doe”.

        • Mauha Deeb

          In 2009 he was targeted 111 times. This past year he was targeted the second least yet had about the same amount of bad plays if not more.

          His targets will increase now due to teams realizing his new weaknesses. He is still good, but he shouldn’t be trusted alone on an island anymore. He just doesn’t have the speed to make up anymore.

          • Anonymous

            Disagree. When did he get torched when he was trusted on an island this year? Jordy TD, that Wallace GIF, and the Steve Smith TD in the playoffs. Those stand out to me.

            But how many plays did he win against Tate, Green, Jordy (caught 2 passes), Cobb, Baldiwn, anyone on the Colts, Steve Smith caught 1 pass against him. That means he shouldn’t be trusted? I doubt his targets will increase based on Mike Wallace getting him on a double move or Steve Smith, one of the toughest receivers ever catching one TD on him. We’ll see. I’ll meet you back here at the end of the season.

            Like I said already, 2009 is not a fair comparison. Comparing that to anything ANYONE has done since could suggest they are slowing down. Was Revis slowing down then in 2010 when he gave up 4 TD’s, was the least targeted CB in football and didn’t get a single INT? Yet he was still the unanimously voted and regarded as best CB in the game and he was. Corners get beat every now and then, that doesn’t mean they are slowing down.

          • Mauha Deeb

            Revis’s play and speed shows he is slowing down. He wasn’t slowing down in 2010. He slowed down with the Bucs and even more so with the pats. Be it from injury or age, he is playing differently and not to his previous levels. He isn’t nearly as aggressive at the line as he used to be. His speed is fading. He is smart enough and trains hard enough to make up for a lot of it, but he isn’t going to be an island anymore. Hasn’t been one for a couple years.

          • Anonymous

            “He isn’t going to be on an island anymore. Hasn’t been for a couple years”…in 2013, they played a Tampa-2 zone, so I would agree they didn’t use him on an island then, which was generally accepted as a dumb way to use a $16MM corner.

            Last year, they used him in a vast majority of ways, but in SEVERAL games he was used on an island. Did you watch any of the Pats playoffs games? He was used on an island in all of them and gave up 3 catches in 3 games. He was used on an island twice against Watkins, against AJ Green, Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry.

            So unless you watched all the games don’t tell me “he wasn’t used on an island” last year because he absolutely was.

            Like I said about his previous level’s 2009 is not a fair comparison for anyone. His coverage grades are the same for 2014 vs 2010 for example.

          • eYeDEF

            I think you missed the point of the article about why Sam thinks he’s slowing down. Citing the numbers is irrelevant because tape trumps all. He directly compared the tape from the times Revis got beat in 2009 to the times he got beat this past season and noticed he was significantly slower:

            despite all those numbers there was a lot of bad in his tape that you typically don’t find in a Revis season. Plays where he just got flat out beat … the difference between Revis this season and Revis in 2009 is that this season he gave up plays where he was nowhere. In 2009 when he got beat he was still all over the guy, in close coverage and making the receiver work for the play … He was beaten in a variety of different routes and coverages, but one word kept coming to mind watching him on these plays: slow.

            Nor is it right to throw out his 2009 season for comparison just because it might have been the greatest season ever by a cornerback. I also don’t understand your point of repeatedly bringing up 2010. No one said he was slowing down in 2010 even if his numbers weren’t as good as 2009. Why? Because again this isn’t about the numbers. Revis plays at such an exceptionally high level that even if he’s “slowing down” he’s still one of the best in the game. This is strictly about the tape and what it reveals when compared to his younger self. Sam didn’t bring up any tape from 2010 but I would bet the tape wouldn’t reveal him being slow in coverage like he was this past season when he got flat out beat and nowhere near his guy. That would be because in 2010 he wasn’t slowing down.

          • Anonymous

            1. Sam shows exactly ONE play where he was “nowhere near” in coverage. Let’s see the reel then if that’s going to be your argument that “tape trumps all”, then let’s see the tape. Where are the plays that he was no where near?

            2. I keep bringing up 2010 because I distinctly remember him being “nowhere near” against Randy Moss and Ted Ginn Jr for TD’s, yet he still had the best overall coverage grade. Corners get beat. And I’m saying I didn’t see any “extra” plays that he got beat this season vs. any others (except 2009). I’m not throwing away 2009, I’m just saying comparing a guy’s career year and then suggesting he’s slowing down because he’s not putting up career numbers is not correct. Is Richard Sherman slowing down then because didn’t get 8 picks this year and gave up more TD’s than last year? Was Michael Jordan slowing down because he didn’t average 35, 8, and 8 ever again after 1987?

            Also, the coverage grades matter, because they are based on the tape. So his overall coverage grade is based on the numbers of times he got beat in coverage, that’s how it works. Which is why saying “despite the coverage grade, there was a lot of bad in his tape”…okay where are the plays then? Shouldn’t that “a lot of bad” been negatively affecting his coverage grade then?

            I’d like to see this analysis redone with a) showing all the examples of bad plays from 2014 b) comparing coverage grades from year to year c) targets, completions, percentage, PBU’s, TD’s allowed for each year.

          • Anonymous

            And also, you said: “He directly compared the tape from the times Revis got beat in 2009 to the times he got beat this past season”….my point is “directly compare” the tape from 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013 as well as 2009 to this past season and then decide if he’s slowing down. Include targets, catches allowed, TD’s allowed, PBU’s INTs, AND then watch the tape, and then decide.

            As an avid Revis fan and Jets fan, I’ve watched almost every snap of his. There’s no denying that he actually played better this season than last (a year farther removed from his injury). So how is that slowing down? Point is, it’s an incomplete analysis used to suggest he played worse this year that in 2009, which everyone in the history of cornerbacks graded under advanced coverage metrics played worse.

          • eYeDEF

            Again, you’re obsessing over advanced metrics when tape trumps all. I suggest you look at the tape so you at least have a legit basis to refute him if you don’t agree.

          • Anonymous

            Thank you for the feedback. I’m saying I have looked at the tape and I don’t disagree. You ignored my point about 2009. I’m not saying to throw it away. I’m saying comparing a career year to others, every other year is going to look like he’s “slowing down”. Okay I was off on Sherman’s TD’s remains, but my point still remains. He was the least targeted last year and had 8 picks, was one of the least targeted this year. Same number of TD’s allowed, and less picks. So is he slowing down? Also, Revis gave up 2 regular season TD’s and 2 in the playoffs.

            Since you asked:

            2014 with Tampa:

            http://presnapreads.com/2014/02/26/darrelle-revis-the-numbers-the-tape-the-verdict-2014/

            2011 (last healthy year with Jets):

            http://presnapreads.com/2013/04/22/darrelle-revis-all-22-tape-how-good-was-tampa-bay-buccaneers-cornerback-before-injury/

            2014 with Pats:

            http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2392332-is-new-york-jets-cornerback-darrelle-revis-past-his-prime

            They don’t have 2010, 2009, or 2008 available, but as you can see, the numbers from each of the last 3 healthy seasons aren’t all that different.

            And to the person that said Revis isn’t used on an island, please look of that still-shot of Jordy Nelson and him and NO ONE anywhere near them…by the way he got a PBU on that play.

          • Anonymous

            And yes, I’m saying Monson is misrepresenting the total number of bad plays by only showing the most obvious one of them. If he’s already done the legwork to pour over all the plays, it should have been easy enough to provide them, good and bad.

          • eYeDEF

            Time and length constraints. PFF usually doesn’t go to FO levels of depth in their articles for mass consumption. They seem to be targeting a less geeky audience. Their bread and butter is the revenue they generate from NFL teams paying them for their inside analysis and specialized sig stats and their analysts seem more devoted to that work because … well they know who butters their bread. So if you’re saying he’s deliberately misrepresenting Revis what is your opinion on the plays he’s described where he didn’t include a gif. That’s a hefty charge.

          • Anonymous

            See my comment above I addressed this too. Would love to continue this debate with you, you seem very knowledgeable. Respect.

          • eYeDEF

            Oh yeah, I’ve definitely read all of Fahey’s stuff. He’s great. But I guess my point is that pointing to Fahey’s year to year breakdown and citing the difference or similarity in his numbers from year to year doesn’t really do much to confirm or refute Sam’s observations one way or another because like I was saying, tape trumps all. This is where I disagree when you say that “compared to 2009 every other year is going to look like he’s slowing down”. If you look only at stats, sure. But that’s not what I’m talking about. The tape is what matters. Watching how he moves on the field, his speed and recovery time, did he look noticeably slower, etc in a direct side by side visual comparison is what counts. My guess is that there really wasn’t a significant slowdown in his quickness, speed, fluidity, etc on the field between 2009 and 2010.

            So I didn’t see you acknowledge that you had directly compared this past season’s tape of Sam’s cited plays to 2009, just that as a Jets fan you’ve seen every play … which I didn’t doubt but assumed you were referring to when you saw them live. If I’m reading you right this time you’re saying you have compared them and don’t disagree but think it’s incomplete because he played better this year than his Tampa year (which I completely agree with from some of the tape I pulled of him in Tampa, he was better this year even though he was still plenty elite playing in Tampa’s zone) so if it’s true you have looked at the cited examples from this past season, have you looked at the tape from 2010, 2011, or 2008? How is the comparison to 2014? Because it really starts with comparing other years like 2010 and 2008 to determine whether he looks closer to 2009 or 2014 first. My assumption is that he’d look closer to his career year in those surrounding years than 2014.

            Sam does acknowledge mitigating circumstances for his slower look this season:

            I’ll say up front that there are a bunch of mitigating circumstances to that. He has worked his way through multiple stops, schemes and coaches in rapid succession, is still not that far removed from major knee surgery, and even within the Patriots’ defense this season saw his role change and evolve as the year went on.

            So I do acknowledge you have a point, which is why it’s possible Sam’s drawing the wrong conclusions with what he sees. I think there’s several competing theories here if you don’t disagree that he’s not moving as well as in the past pre-injury (excluding 2009 if you want I’m interested in what he looks like in 2008, 2010,2011 too. And again, not advanced metrics or stats but how well he moved on the field); 1) he’s really slowing down, 2) he’s never completely regained his pre-injury form 3) he’s taking far longer to recover from his knee surgery than expected 4) his rapidly changing roles in the different schemes the last two years have prevented him from being as sharp as he was pre-injury.

            Because if you acknowledge that he was slower this past season than his pre-injury form and you’re arguing that it’s not age slowing down, it’s fair to speculate why he hasn’t looked as sharp.

          • Anonymous

            Thanks again for the feedback and I’d love to continue this debate with you off of this forum if we can do that somehow. To clarify a couple things, I had a typo, I was saying a don’t *agree* with Monson on this (like I didn’t agree with him about Brady either).

            To answer a couple of your questions, I had the breakdown of 2009 and 2010 (2008 wasn’t available), I just don’t know what I did with them. Perhaps I got rid of them being bitter when he left the Jets, haha but I guess I’m a hypocrite in that I request a comparison of all seasons and can’t produce it myself, lol. At least I had 3 seasons worth.

            I guess also saying he’s deliberately misrepresenting the data is a bit harsh, I’m just saying the analysis is conveniently incomplete and that looking at a players banner year versus others makes it seem like it’s a sharp dropoff. Basically it’s easy to say: “his coverage grade was +32.9 in 2009 and he never got torched and it was +16 this year and oh look at this double move from Mike Wallace and a few others I don’t feel like showing you, so he must be slowing down”.

            If you look at that breakdown I gave of 2011 and 2014, you’ll see they are EXTREMELY similar (both years he was first team All-Pro), which is basically my argument. Don’t just use 2009, use the whole body of work. I wish I had the breakdowns of 2009 and 2010 but sadly I don’t know what I did with them anymore. But in extremely incomplete summary, 2009 obviously stands far ahead of the rest, but every other year is still extremely good with obviously some fluctuations season to season. 2011 and 2014, for example are better than 2010 and 2013 overall, but I don’t see any drop in production or “slowing down”.

            Now, if you want to argue that he physically doesn’t run the 40 as fast, well it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a 30 year old guy with an ACL injury doesn’t run as fast as he did when he was 24 and had never been injured; but I don’t presume that to be what Monson is talking about, I believe he means “slowing down” to be “playing worse and getting beaten more often”, which I didn’t see. He got beat, in 2014, just about as often as any other season (except 2009) which suggests that he’s still playing at his career average level; his career average being first team All-Pro lol. The guy is unbelievable and I believe it to be impressive that even though he had amazing physical gifts, his game was never based on that, which is why he’s able to excel still in the back half of his prime.

          • eYeDEF

            but I don’t presume that to be what Monson is talking about, I believe he means “slowing down” to be “playing worse and getting beaten more often”, which I didn’t see.

            You see this is where I think you completely misread the article and misunderstood what Sam was saying if this is what you thought he said. I didn’t get that at all. Nowhere in the article did he say he was “getting beaten more often”. I suggest you re-read the article, at least the first half, to get a better sense of what he’s saying and doing. In fact, he goes to great pains to spell out that Revis is still playing at an extremely high level as reflected in the stats. Here’s the key sentence that you seem to have completely misinterpreted:

            Well, despite all those numbers there was a lot of bad in his tape that you typically don’t find in a Revis season. Plays where he just got flat out beat.

            You see that? I added the emphasis in bold. He’s specifically talking about the tape, not the stats. You keep citing stats as if that’s supposed to mean something that’s supposed to refute Sam’s argument. But like I said the first time, the stats are totally irrelevant because it has nothing to do with what he’s arguing. Nowhere does he say that Revis gets beat “more”. He spells it out again here. Please read it closely:

            The difference between Revis this season and Revis in 2009 is that this season he gave up plays where he was nowhere. In 2009 when he got beat he was still all over the guy, in close coverage and making the receiver work for the play.

            See that? It’s not that he got beat more. It’s how he got beat. This is where I think you keep missing his point. Nowhere does he argue that the poor plays he defines in the rest of his article are either reflective in his stats or represent a greater volume of plays. He’s strictly going by the handful of times Revis got beat in 2014 and comparing them to the handful of times he got beat from 2009. So if you disagree with him, the only way you can mount a credible defense is comparing the tape side by side and pointing out where he is wrong.

            I thought it was pretty clear that Sam was talking about looking for “signs” that Revis was slowing down from age that could not be discerned by looking at his stats because he plays at such a high level. What struck him more than anything was how much slower Revis appeared to him from the tape on the plays he got beat compared to the plays he got beat in 2009. I think in your zeal to defend Revis you’ve been too quick to misinterpret his criticism as being about his overall performance so I want to make this very clear. His criticism is reserved strictly to how he visually looked in those handful of plays he got beat in comparison to when he got beat in 2009. Nothing more. Nowhere does he ever suggest “slowing down” means “getting beat more often”.

            So you really shouldn’t have a problem with what he saw on tape since you admit that it doesn’t take a genius to figure out a 30 year old after an ACL injury is going to have lost a step compared to his 24 year old self. It also doesn’t take a genius to figure out that his physical athleticism will continue to decline as he gets older and it will result in a hit in his overall performance regardless of what adjustments he makes in his game. So when Sam says “slowing down” he’s specifically asking the question as to whether there are visual signs Revis has hit his physical peak and begun his decline. The bottom line is that all cornerbacks, no matter how great, are pretty much done by the age of 34. The only ones that continue to have a career are converted to safety after that with the ONLY possible exception to the rule being Darrell Green who continued to start all 16 games a season until he was 39. But I’m hesitant to say there was no significant drop off in his play much earlier than that until I can find some tape on Green at various stages in his career.

            So that means we KNOW Revis is going to suffer a decline in his play like every other cornerback has over the next three seasons before he hits 34. It’s just a question of when. It’s not unreasonable to conclude after seeing tape of a dramatically slower Revis on the plays he got beat that he has in fact reached his physical peak and begun his decline. He might have been able to compensate and adapt well enough so far that it doesn’t affect his overall performance or affect his numbers. It might even be the wrong conclusion because, like I mentioned, it could be that he’s just never regained his pre-injury form … not that he’s in his physical decline. Unfortunately, that’s a question that can’t be answered by looking at the tape we have so far. The confluence of events such as the age he was at the time of his injury and that he was initially slow to get up to speed in Tampa as he gradually got stronger as the season progressed, then hitting 29 in a year he should have been fully physically recovered muddies the waters too much. But at some point in the next 3 seasons he’ll find himself no longer to adapt his game to overcome the affects of aging such that it won’t affect his on field performance. That’s a certainty. If Sam is right, then we should see it as soon as this season.

          • Anonymous

            This is my fundamental argument and I’m glad you pointed it out:

            “The difference between Revis this season and Revis in 2009 is that this season he gave up plays where he was nowhere. In 2009 when he got beat he was still all over the guy, in close coverage and making the receiver work for the play….His criticism is reserved strictly to how he visually looked in those handful of plays he got beat in comparison to when he got beat in 2009. Nothing more. Nowhere does he ever suggest “slowing down” means “getting beat more often”.”

            My argument is comparing ANYTHING (tape, raw numbers, etc) to 2009 is not a fair comparison, because it was his banner year, and he’s never replicated that again and I don’t think anyone ever will. That season was a one off. What he should have done was used examples from 2010, 2008, 2011 and compared the times he got beat in those seasons to 2014 to see how he got beat and how often. Had he done that, he wouldn’t be noticing a dropoff is my whole point. Yes he probably doesn’t run as fast anymore, but he’s found a way to be just as effective (apart from 2009).

            The pre-snap reads I provided doesn’t provide all the reels of the plays he got beat, but it gives you an idea of the success rate and the role he was being used. And to me 2011 and 2014 look identical.

            2010: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dRz9WCgXRU

            Then Monson said “players no longer fear getting stranded on Revis Island because if they look at the tape they see you can make big plays”….well I saw plenty of QB’s afraid to throw in his direction, despite “all this bad tape” that’s supposedly out there, and sure some guys made some plays, but again, the success rate of throwing at him was as low as any other season, except 2009 of course. And as for this season, the teams that weren’t afraid to throw at him and went after him more than a couple times in a game were the games he put up his best numbers (Lions, Bengals, Bears).

            You’re right, it is inevitable that he’s going to decline at some point, and maybe he never lives up to that contract, maybe the decline starts in 2015 (although as a Jet fan my best case scenario is he plays at this level for the next 3 seasons), but I didn’t see that decline start this past season as we can both agree he actually improved from 2013 to 2014.

          • eYeDEF

            My argument is comparing ANYTHING (tape, raw numbers, etc) to 2009 is not a fair comparison, because it was his banner year, and he’s never replicated that again and I don’t think anyone ever will. That season was a one off.

            You see I don’t find that to be a compelling argument as to why how fast and fluid he moves on the field “can’t be compared” to how he’s moving now. Would it logical to assume during his “banner year” that he was significantly faster and more fluid than in 2008 or 2010? I don’t think that’s a reasonable assumption at all. Loss of speed from age happens over gradual spectrum over a number of years. Barring injury, we won’t see guys be significantly quicker one year and then suddenly lose that quickness the next. That’s not how speed and agility typically deteriorate, and it’s definitely not anything that can be expected from a guy going from 24 to 25 to 26. Fluctuations in physical speed and agility like that just don’t happen unless he juiced in 2009 only. I would prefer not to think that though and I don’t think that’s what you’re arguing.

            I agree that you have a good point that additional years would be useful because larger sample sizes are always better to get a more accurate picture. If I were making a prediction like that I would be sure to do the legwork on the other years to be absolutely sure the plays I’m saying Revis looks like he’s “slowing down” are in fact specific to 2014 more exclusively than the other years outside of 2009. If on the other years from the handful of plays he got burned he was nowhere close to his man that might suggest he could be reading too much into the plays he got burned on this past season. He sort of implies that he looked at some other years but I wish he would have included more info on what he saw.

            One thing I’ll point out on the replays of the Ted Ginn clip is it’s hard to tell how he let Ginn get behind him because the lame end zone camera angle they cut to on replays just as they go toe to toe off the line. Because the only normal shot we have at the snap is of him in the bottom left corner and the camera pans away so quick you can’t tell but it looks like he’s mirroring him step for step off the LoS before it cuts to the end zone angle. It looks like he beat him with an inside move from the end zone angle, but without a better view it’s impossible to tell whether he bit on a fake or just got flat beat.
            It’s true he wasn’t very close to his man at the end, but after looking up the Sanders clip I’d have to say that Sam does have a point too.
            Since it was nowhere to be found online I pulled the tape myself and uploaded the clip to youtube (you’re welcome Sam) have a look:

            http://youtu.be/fCp1x5OmXak

            Dude! Revis looked far worse on that play than the Ginn reception from the replay shots. He was like a mile behind Sanders just 17 yards up on a crossing route before Sanders turned up field for 5 YAC. The replays show just how far off Sanders he was. I seriously can’t recall seeing Revis look that bad on a mid range sub 20 yard crossing route can you?

          • Anonymous

            I remember some specific plays yes, Brandon Marshall got him on a crosser like that in the famous 100 yd pick-6 game against the Dolphins. Thing about that Sanders play is there’s a lot of traffic, he has to run through some junk. I’m not making excuses because in the end he was “nowhere” as Sam put it, and thank you for pulling up the tape. I just didn’t see that as a play he’s never gotten beaten on in the past and I didn’t see that as something he regularly got beat on. Look how he handled Golden Tate on a similar play where there wasn’t any traffic:

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gAZTQuNNVs

            Again, even if there is a physical decline starting, my point is that it hasn’t YET affected his overall play (this is proven by the numbers), and I don’t agree with Monson that “people aren’t scared of getting stranded on Revis Island anymore because they’ll see you can make plays”. I’m saying there’s not any EXTRA bad plays in the tape than from previous years (outside of 2009), there’s not extra plays where you’re thinking “wow he got smoked on that one”, and the success rate against him is as low as ever.

            And for the notion of “there’s a lot of bad tape you typically don’t find in a Revis season”, using 2009 to make that claim isn’t fair. Seems like we mostly agree, while where we’re hung up is that the physical decline is affecting the production. Thanks for the debate.

          • eYeDEF

            No, I get that part of your point and I think it’s valid. No doubt QBs were afraid to throw at him so it really doesn’t matter if WRs think they can beat him unless they’re absolutely wide open (like when Revis ran into the ref) or they’ve got a QB that implicitly trusts that they’ll get open like I think Brady has with Edelman. But I don’t think there are many QBs that implicitly trust their top wideout to get open on Revis. He looked sharp on Tate in that play no doubt. And Stafford’s the kind of QB that will just keep forcing balls to his top two receiving options whether they’re open or not. I’m glad you noted the Marshall crosser, thanks, I’ll have to see if I can find that.

          • Anonymous

            I thought I had it, but sadly I don’t. I’ve been trying to scour databases to find it again but I couldn’t. I did find an image in the 2011 pre snap reads of Miles Austin getting him on one too.

            http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1287092-darrelle-revis-breaking-down-the-tape-on-the-new-york-jets-star-cornerback

            And the success rate against crossing routes is one of his lowest success percentages (for obvious reasons, it’s one of the “man coverage beating” routes because of all the bodies in the way”. Again don’t have a lot of images, but Revis’s success rate was 67% in 2013 and 68% in 2014 (same). Pre snap reads didn’t break it down by routes run prior to that.

          • eYeDEF

            While he only showed the clip of one play he carefully documented a list of other plays after that where Revis got burned and looked slow. So I don’t really understand your question of “where are the other plays?” because he spells it all out. I’m sure if you wanted to you could find those plays he’s describing and watch them yourself. I’ve found Sam to be a fair, accurate, and thorough analyst and probably the most informative of the analysts I regularly read on this site. He’s done tons of articles on CB analysis over the years and I have no reason to doubt his conclusions. He provided one clip and carefully described the other plays while including his reasoning in simple to understand English. What you’re suggesting; that he’s either deliberately misrepresenting Revis in this article or suffers from chronically bad judgement when it comes to comparing cornerback play I find a real reach. Since he carefully cites the instances he’s talking about it would be absurd in my opinion for him to misrepresent the tape. But if you think he is, you’re more than welcome to do the legwork and try to call him out using the sources he cites. If you do, I’d be really interested in learning what you find and why your opinion on those plays differs from his.

            And no, I don’t see how “a lot of bad” would be necessarily affect the coverage grade. We don’t know how exactly they do the breakdown on cornerbacking grades because we don’t know what their proprietary formula is. They don’t release that info. We don’t know if they grade all failed coverages equally or on a spectrum and if on a spectrum what the parameters are and by how much. And unless and until we do, we can’t draw any conclusions assessing how the tape translates to PFF grades. Right now you’re just blindly speculating.

            You do have to check your facts though. Sherman didn’t give up more touchdowns this year than last. He gave up one TD in ’13 and one in ’14. Revis gave up 4 this year and 4 last year.

      • Anonymous

        And also, it EXACTLY WAS about a handful of plays. The entire article is based on the premise that based on these handful of plays it looks like he’s slowing down. But then there is no comparison against other seasons other than a super human one, no information about overall coverage metrics from this season vs. others. Just “here’s a couple plays where he got beat, so he could be slowing down”. And really they only showed the GIF of one play, a play Monson has already used this season.

    • Tony Richrdson

      As an avid Revis follower I agree with your post. 2009 was literally unbelievable.

  • http://nflbuddha.blogspot.ca/ Frank Cole

    Do you really think the Patriots would have let him go so easily if it was not true? He cost them the Packer game (giving up that TD to Nelson just before the half) and looked terrible on the TD he gave up in the Super Bowl to one of Seattle’s no-name receivers (It was kind of sad watching him try to blame the official – This was Revis!). That mistake would have cost them the championship in not for Butler’s heroics. It will be fun to watch Brady & McDaniels exploit him twice this year.

    • eYeDEF

      I think they would have been hard pressed to keep Revis regardless. There was no way they could have picked up his 20 mil option that included a 5 mil signing bonus and count 25 mil against the cap this season while they’re 11 million over the cap. They were reportedly willing to pay him just as much as the Jets over the next three years but were not willing to guarantee all of his 39 mil salary over that time which the Jets were willing to do. Plus that’s fully guaranteed even if he suffers a non-football related injury where he’s completely at fault and can’t play, he still gets paid by the Jets. The Pats weren’t willing to extend the guarantees that far. Even if Revis didn’t show any signs of slowing I don’t believe the Pats were in a position to guarantee him that much or would have. They’ve never broken the bank for one player, not even Brady (although they arguably might have if Brady wasn’t so generous as to forfeit between 30-40 mil in career earnings so far so the Pats could build a better team around him) it’s hard to see them breaking the bank for Revis even if he was playing close to his peak. Not only would they be reluctant to do so, but they literally couldn’t without cutting key players and racking up dead money while leaving no room to sign anyone else.

    • Anonymous

      I think it speaks to the level of greatness of a player that out of an entire season, you remember 2 bad plays. It’s pretty safe to say that no receiver on the patriots is going to “exploit” darrelle revis, we’ll see.

      He gave up exactly one catch in the SB and you’re hating on him for it. Typical homer now that he’s not on your team. Also, a decent part of the blame for that Jordy TD falls at the feet of your $9MM per year safety. That was a horrible angle. It was a slant (that Revis got beat on we get it) that should have been a 15 yard gain max.

      • eYeDEF

        If he’s lost some of his speed as this article surmises, then Julian Edelman has as good a chance of exploiting him as anyone if Revis were covering him alone in man. Edelman’s quickness out of his breaks is unmatched in the league, which is why he’s such a tough cover and draws bracket coverage from double teams. If Edelman can get by Revis’s press relatively unscathed, he’d have a good shot to exploit him.

        • Anonymous

          There was some footage of Patriots training camp this past year where Edelman was struggling mightly to shake Revis, Brady even threw a pick 6. Obviously we don’t have the film of their one on one’s in practice but it cuts both ways, Edelman will know Revis’s strengths and weaknesses. Revis will know Edelman’s and he’ll have a good understanding of the Patriots playbook and what type of routes Brady likes to throw to Edelman. Should be a good matchup.

          • eYeDEF

            Sounds like Revis jammed him at the line enough to disrupt his timing. That would explain the Brady pick. I’m pretty sure when they go against him the Pats will give Edelman plenty of assistance at the line to neutralize Revis’s press though, most likely playing off the LoS so he doesn’t have a chance to press. Not even Revis can match Edelman’s quickness out of his breaks. In college both ran elite short shuttles but Edelman finished nearly 2/10ths of a second fast than Revis, which is a lot, and that’s assuming Revis hasn’t lost anything from age.

          • Anonymous

            Yeah, it’ll be a fun matchup. Edelman is “Welker 2.0″ and Revis never really struggled against Welker even when they moved him around to try and get him some space. I don’t know if Edelman is quicker than Welker was, but now Revis has intimate, close up view/knowledge of their playbook so that’ll be a big factor.

          • eYeDEF

            Edelman is the superior athlete for sure. He only dropped to the 7th round because he was super raw at receiver since he played QB for the most part in college. He was drafted based on his outstanding athleticism. Welker went undrafted. The only measurable that stood out for Welker was his elite short shuttle time but Edelman was still one tenth of a second faster and ranks in the 99th percentile of every player that’s ever been timed there. Welker got open in the pros because he was quick out of his breaks but also because he had this great head fake move he’d use to shake his defenders before breaking the other way. Revis wouldn’t bite. Edelman poses a greater challenge because he gives no hint of which way he’ll break. That’s how he tied Tharold Simon up in knots trying to single cover him in the SB. Teams find they have to put two guys in bracket coverage, one on either side of him to account for which way he might go. So Revis will have his work cut out for him.

            I don’t put too much stock of having familiarity with BB’s playbook. He’s too thorough of a coach to not change things up when they play Revis. If Revis is familiar with routes with Edelman breaking in one direction more often than another, I think it’d be a bad idea for him to try to jump the route in anticipation because surely BB’s not dumb enough to play the same routes Revis is familiar playing covering Edelman in practice. If Revis guesses wrong, he’d get smoked. The Pats also run a very complex offensive scheme that is difficult for the offensive players to master, let alone a defensive player.

            It also cuts both ways because any familiarity Revis might have with the Pats would be neutralized by them having familiarity facing him in practice every day. Brady will be familiar with his weaknesses and the most optimal conditions when throwing his way. I don’t think Brady will test him a lot, but I don’t think he’ll shy away from throwing at him if he spots him trying to single cover Edelman in man either. It’ll be fun to watch but if I were forced to wager I could see Edelman making some key grabs on Revis. But if it were an earlier, quicker version of Revis say from 2008 I wouldn’t make that bet.

          • Anonymous

            I don’t know, has anyone ever consistently “made key grabs” against Revis since 2008? Sure some people caught a TD on him, or made a key play (Steve Smith, for example, that was his only catch against Revis), but consistently?

            You make it seems like Edelman is un-guardable because of his quickness. If that were the case, he’d be putting up more given he has an elite QB on a team that throws the ball 600 times a season. It’s not like this guy is Antonio Brown (who Revis will also face this season). Revis has been facing the Patriots for years, and now spent a year with them. There’s probably not a single defensive player in the league understands their scheme better than Revis. Any play where Edelman isn’t lined up in a bunch or stacked, and Revis is able to get his hands on him, he’s done.

            “I don’t think Brady will test him a lot, but I don’t think he’ll shy away from throwing at him if he spots him trying to single cover Edelman in man either”…If Revis is assigned to Edelman, you can pretty much guarantee it’ll be single coverage in man, so you’re saying Brady will go after him then.

          • eYeDEF

            If he can beat Revis’s jam. That would be the key and I’m not saying that’s any easy feat to accomplish. That’s why I see the Patriots being well aware of that and running stunts like switches and rubs to prevent contact before five yards out or have Edelman start his release from behind the LoS so there’s no chance of getting a jam while he’s trying to get out of his stance.

            I’m not at all saying Edelman is elite or uncoverable by anyone. I could see any number of the better smaller, quicker slot cornerbacks contain him in single coverage. Someone like Chris Harris Jr who doesn’t play press at all and relies solely on technique and putting himself in superior positioning when mirroring to throw a guy off his route tree and out-leverage his targets when the ball is thrown his way I’m sure wouldn’t have too many problems with Edelman, nor did he when he held him to 27 yards when he was covering him this past season. Seattle didn’t have that type of personnel on their active roster since Kam’s MCL tear in the last practice before the SB forced them to make Burley inactive so they would have someone who could step in for Kam if he couldn’t go. That was a mistake since they didn’t have that type of cover corner that matches up well with him in single coverage. Plus Edelman still drops the ball way too damn much to be considered anywhere close to elite in my opinion. But what I am saying is that the first type of receiver that Revis will start having problems with when he starts to slow down to the point it affects his numbers will be the smaller, quicker receivers like Edelman and Sanders if he can’t get his jam on them. I’m not saying that’s going to come next season or that he’ll get burned on a consistent basis. Personally, I don’t think we’ll see that. 30 in my opinion is still a good age for an elite cornerback to play at a very high level. I don’t think we’ll see one guy consistently beat him either. But we know he’ll get burned at least a handful of times next year just like all corners do, so if we were trying to predict by who or if we were going to start seeing cracks in the armor, I could see at least one of the two games they play Edelman catching some balls on Revis because I don’t see Revis having an answer to the speed out of his breaks once he gets by his press. What I am saying about Edelman is that he only really blossomed in the back half of this season. He only really figured out how to finally play the position and run the full route tree last year when he excelled for the first time as a backup or playing out of the slot this past season was his first as a full time starter. But the first half of the season he looked like raw sewage during the time Brady was trying to figure out what it was he was trying to figure out. When they got on the same page again he picked up where he left off in his backup performance last season as one of the toughest covers because many teams don’t have the personnel to guard a guy like him so they’re forced to use bracket coverage on him. I see him as a player still on the rise, a late bloomer due to his late start at the position, but someone that will make a name for himself far bigger than it is now especially if he can get his drops under control because his consistently high catch rate shows that it’s not like he has bad hands. But his quickness out of his breaks really hasn’t been seen before even by Welker who was elite but not quite as elite at Edelman out of his breaks and it’s the quick receivers Revis will have problems first. The top physical receivers Revis should be able to handle to a much later age with his strength and superior press technique like against Calvin and Dez and those guys.

          • Anonymous

            Okay I’m following you now on this, and it’s gonna be a fun season to watch to see how Revis plays back in a Jets uniform. They have some great receivers of all different types lined up for this season. In no particular order, he’ll be facing:

            Dez, Odell, DeSean/Garcon for the NFC East. Edelman, Watkins, and Jarvis Landry/Kenny Stills twice each. Plus some potential plays against Gronk (they’ve done it in the past and in Pats training camp some I heard). Thought they were gonna face Pitt (Anotonio Brown) but sadly not. Dwayne Bowe, Ty Hilton/Moncrief, Possibly Amari Cooper if Oakland drafts him. DeAndre Hopkins. Jordan Mathews. Hell of a lineup.

          • eYeDEF

            Yeah it should be a blast. Those are some fantastic match ups. Wow. Well, still 5 months to go. I guess this is what the off season is for, debating over how things are going to play out when the season starts. :)

          • Anonymous

            Agreed. As a Jets fan, I hope he stays as good as ever while makings those big bucks!

            One thing I respect about Revis is, as money hungry as he’s always been, he’s never let it affect his play on the field. His next great challenge: living up to that contract. If anyone can, it’s him.

          • eYeDEF

            Yeah I have no doubt that whenever his decline comes, it won’t be because of lack of effort. He’s a pro’s pro.

            The Jets are just so close if you had a halfway competent QB you could make a run. As creative as I try to get my imagination to go there, I still can’t see it with Geno regardless of how well he played in the finale.

          • Anonymous

            Yeah I’ve never been a big Geno fan. They were on the cusp in Revis’s first go round. Just as Sanchez looked like he was prepared to take “the next step” a la when Big Ben, Eli and most recently Russell Wilson did it, he fell off the cliff, Revis got injured and the whole thing blew up in Rex’s face.

            But they were SO close then.

            They’re following a similar path now, one the Seahawks also followed (obviously to greater effect because they won it all), but yeah they badly are in need of a QB to play reasonably well to have a chance. They don’t need a truly elite one, but if they could just get one that would turn the ball over less than once a game (right now now they’re at about 2 per game which is HORRIBLE), they have a chance to compete this year, especially given their schedule.

            I’m cautiously optimistic, but obviously love that they’re aggressively trying to improve the roster without completely putting themselves in a bad cap situation in the future.

  • Corey Szczebak

    As a Pats fan we all know about Sam Monson. Last year he predicted Brady was on the decline and his Hall of Fame caliber play was over. That was obviously very wrong as Brady played some of his best football of his career the final 8 games of the season onto winning his 4th ring. Monson obviously gets off on reporting negative articles about super stars he thinks are in decline when in all reality its just a guess. Yes, Revis got beat more than usual last year, but as you said, he was only 2 years removed from his ACL surgery and played for 3 different defensive coordinators in 3 straight seasons. Also, Monson lives in Europe, what the hell does he know about the NFL? He’s a numbers cruncher in the wrong sport because football isnt like baseball. Numbers dont tell the whole story in the NFL