ReFo: Broncos @ Seahawks, Week 3

In a Super Bowl rematch, the Seahawks needed overtime to best the Broncos in a compelling encounter. Steve Palazzolo breaks it down.

| 2 years ago

In a Super Bowl rematch, the Seahawks needed overtime to best the Broncos in a compelling encounter. Steve Palazzolo breaks it down.

ReFo: Broncos @ Seahawks, Week 3


2014-REFO-WK03-DEN@SEAThe Super Bowl rematch between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks was headed toward familiar territory until Denver’s defense sparked a comeback with a safety and an interception, helping quarterback Peyton Manning nearly pull off the upset in spectacular fashion.

Denver fell short in the end, however, as the Seahawks held on to win by playing keep-away in overtime with an impressive touchdown drive. Seattle had offensive woes of their own, but they stepped up when needed with a 13-play, 80-yard game-winning drive.

Despite the loss, the Broncos have to be encouraged by a defensive effort that gave them a chance to win, while Seattle’s defense lived up to their reputation, at least for the first 59 minutes of regulation. The hard-fought battle showed, if nothing else, that these two teams are still among the premier in the league, and another rematch is certainly a possibility down the road.

Here’s a look at the key performances from the game.

Denver – Performances of Note

Emmanuel Sanders, WR: +3.0

Breakdown: Denver’s most reliable target, Sanders was on the same page with Manning for much of the afternoon. He finished with 11 catches for 149 yards, and he got open a variety of ways, whether running deeps outs and comebacks, post routes, or even slipping up the seam for a big 42-yard gain on Denver’s final drive. Sanders has now caught 25 of his 33 targets this season (75.8 percent) as he’s more than aptly replaced departed wide receiver Eric Decker.

Signature Stat: Eight of Sanders’ 11 catches went for first downs.

Von Miller, OLB, +3.9

Breakdown: Perhaps the first “vintage” Von Miller performance of the season, he made an impact in the running game (+4.0) and as a pass rusher (+1.8). His four run stops led the Broncos and he picked up a sack and eight hurries on his 35 pass rushes. This was the type of performance Broncos fans are used to seeing from Miller.

Signature Play: It may go down as a simple run stop, but it was an impressive play by Miller with 53 seconds left in the first half. Seattle was looking to set up the cutback for running back Marshawn Lynch, but Miller shed the backside cut from tight end Zach Miller and wrapped up the league’s most difficult running back to tackle for the 1-yard gain.

Manuel Ramirez, C: -3.0

Breakdown: It’s been a bit of a slow start to the season for the Broncos pivot man as Ramirez struggled as both a run blocker (-1.3) and as a pass blocker (-1.8). He gave up a hit and three hurries on 51 pass block attempts and failed to create much movement in the running game.

Signature Play: On a key 3rd-and-5 early in the fourth quarter, Ramirez was bullrushed by linebacker Bobby Wagner, forcing an errant throw from Manning.

Seattle – Performances of Note

Kam Chancellor, SS: +4.7; Earl Thomas, FS: +4.1

Breakdown: The Seahawks’ safety duo was excellent, whether making game-changing plays, or simply making the plays in front of them. Thomas forced a fumble on Denver’s first play from scrimmage and nearly had another one, but it was ruled an incompletion and a pass defensed. Chancellor made what appeared to be the game-sealing interception before Manning’s late-game heroics, and he nearly had one in the middle of the third quarter on an ill-advised pass.

Signature Stat: Chancellor tied for the team lead with four stops while Thomas came in right behind him with three.

Russell Wilson, QB: -1.6 (-2.2 Passing)

Breakdown: With three straight negatives to start the season, Wilson is hitting a slump similar to his late-season hiccup last December. The raw stats look good once again (passer rating of 99.9), but he’s thrown the ball into coverage more often than he did in his first two seasons. An offensive pass interference bailed him out in the second quarter as he forced a pass right to cornerback Aqib Talib, but he wasn’t as lucky early in the fourth as he misread the coverage and threw one right to Talib again for a tipped interception to CB Chris Harris.

Signature Plays: In a day filled with easy passes on boot action, it’s the big plays that stood out. Whether the two ill-advised throws to Talib or the perfect 39-yard touchdown pass to WR Ricardo Lockette, it was an inconsistent effort for Wilson.

Justin Britt, RT: -4.4

Breakdown: After an impressive start to the season for the second-round rookie, Britt struggled with the unenvious task of going up against Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware for much of the day. He let Miller get inside him multiple times in the running game and he surrendered a sack and five hurries in pass protection.

Signature Play: Ware ran right around Britt for his sack at the 14:08 mark of the fourth quarter.

PFF Game Ball

The Seahawks’ safeties made an impact from start to finish, so Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are splitting the game ball in this one.

 

| Senior Analyst

Steve is a senior analyst at Pro Football Focus. His work has been featured on ESPN Insider, NBC Sports, and 120 Sports.

  • Jon

    Wilson completed 70% of his passes, and by all accounts except yours was playing at an MVP level. To watch that game and not only say he wasn’t average, but actually hurt the Seahawks, is astounding. Makes one question your methodology.

    • Jay

      That isn’t there point. You can complete 90% of your passes and not make any plays. He had a perfect throw to Lockett and a few other good throws by design but for the most part he held the ball too long and didn’t show the pocket presence we come to expect from him. Watch the games don’t focus on what the media tells you. This website is here to seperate fact from fiction and it is a great tool.

      • Jon

        I watched the whole game. He was brilliant in overtime, and quite good during regulation. He’s always held the ball longer than most starting QBs–something which allows him to extend plays, and open up running lanes for himself. I find their ratings on RW shocking, and does make me question the legitimacy of this site. I find myself agreeing with the Viking head coach’s recent comments on PFF.

        • atyler2011

          With all due respect, Jay. This same site gave RW one of the highest cumulative grades, in the first two seasons, for any starting qbs for the past few years. I didn’t hear any complaints from the 12s then. Let be honest. We all love RW because he is a winner and clutch but he hasn’t played like he did in the first two years. I don’t know what it is but he is making very bad decisions, especially throws outside the number. He should have had at least 3 to 4 interceptions w/ bad decisions but his receivers bailed him out until today when they didn’t have a chance to do so.

          • flyerhawk

            Wait. Wilson should have had 4 interceptions yesterday? Are you being serious

          • atyler2011

            Over the 3 games. At least 2 in the first game when ZM and I believe, DB, bailed him out. I didn’t watch the SD game so I can’t say. But yesterday, RL saved him a potential picked-6 but he was not as lucky w/ the actual interception.

          • [email protected]

            Throwing 4 passes that “could” have been intercepted in 3 games is good. Jay Cutler could have been picked off 5 times last night if the Jets had any DB’s.

          • Dohkay

            You don’t want to use Jay Cutler to make your argument,

          • [email protected]

            A lot of people think Jay Cutler is a better QB than Russell Wilson (Ron Jaworski).

          • Dohkay

            Jaws is arguably the dumbest “expert” there is. His ranking of Joe Flacco as the 4th best QB in the NFL after he won the SB tells you all you need to know.

          • [email protected]

            So you’re agreeing with me that WIlson is better than Cutler? Thats strange considering all you do here is trash on Russell Wilson. I’d like to hear your list of QB’s ahead of Wilson.

          • Dohkay

            Oh come on, that’s not all I do! It’s just more entertaining because there seems to be many more Hawks fans patrolling the boards who can’t stand it when someone criticizes the Golden Boy.

            1. Manning
            2. Rodgers
            3. Brees
            4. Brady
            5. Rivers
            6. Luck
            7. Stafford (admitted homer pick)
            8. Ryan
            9. Russell
            10. Romo

          • [email protected]

            So you’re saying he’s 9th best right now? How is he overrated then? He’s just starting his third year and he’s still getting better and everybody ahead of him has peaked (except for Luck who is overrated).

          • Dohkay

            Look at the people who come here complaining about his grade as if he’s the reason the Hawks won this game (or the SB for that matter). The story of this game is the defense once again shutting down the best offense we’ve seen the past few years.

            Holding Peyton and Co. to 18 offensive points (7 courtesy of a 19-yard field thanks to a RW turnover) is the reason the Hawks won. It’s usually the reason they always win.

            He is a good QB who looks elite and puts up elite efficiency numbers thanks to his system and the fact that he can count on needing to score 17 to win in over 60% of his games. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that if he was in Dallas or New York and Eli or Romo were in Seattle they’d still gamble away more games and cost the Hawks whereas he would at least put up similar stats and wins in their place.

          • [email protected]

            You can take any 1 player from a great team and say they werent the reason that they won. Torture is bad, stop torturing logic.

          • Dohkay

            I’m not even going to respond to that.

            If I take Earl Thomas away and replace him with an average safety does it impact the game more than replacing Wilson with an average QB? I say yes. You say no. Right?

          • [email protected]

            They still win the superbowl because the offense put up 43 points in 3 quarters. So they didnt need Earl Thomas to win the superbowl?

          • Dohkay

            Easy now, you’re sounding a bit foolish when you say that. The offense accounted for 20 points of the 36 points put up in the first 3 quarters (they had a safety, KR TD, and INT Ret TD). The first TD drive started on the Broncos 37 (i.e. already in FG range). The second TD drive on the Hawks 42. Nice short fields help as well.

            Keep in mind the 2013 Broncos averaged 38 points a game and gave up 24 on defense. Do you see why I’m not as impressed with Wilson putting up 20 points through 3 quarters now?

          • [email protected]

            I told you to stop torturing logic, i’m going to report you to Amnesty International. The offense scored on every meaningful possession in the game and they won by 35. They would have won without any one player.

          • Dohkay

            I disagree and since neither one is budging I say we leave it where it is.

          • [email protected]

            It doesnt matter if you disagree, my point was that you could make the argument. I dont agree either.

          • eYeDEF

            Either scenario, the hawks lose the game probably by a large margin. I’m not sure how you can necessarily say one would impact the game more than the other. An average QB doesn’t make the final gwd, nor does he likely throw the touchdown pass to Lockette. That’s 13 points right there. Without Earl Thomas it’s doubtful the Seahawks would remain in a single high cover 3 scheme. They’d like go cover 2 to mitigate the shortcomings of their free safety. Would it result in 13 more points by Manning? Maybe. Would it be significantly more than 13 points? It’s pretty hard to say that conclusively and I’m not sure how you can.

          • Dohkay

            Wilson is closer to average at his position than Thomas (who most agree is the best safety in the game). Teams already do stack the box against Lynch which is why you get one on one match ups on the outside like on the throw to Lockette. Average NFL QBs are capable of throwing a deep ball. I’m not suggesting we replace him with Ponder or Some garbage QB. Last time I checked guys like Romo, Cutler, etc. had successfully complete a few deep balls in their careers.

            Manning has averaged almost 40 PPG against defenses not named Seattle. When he plays Seattle he doesn’t even average half that. ET is a major reason why.

          • eYeDEF

            You missed my point. Wilson demands a spy on defense to ensure he doesn’t break off long runs. That takes a man away from being able to stack the box against Lynch or provide extra coverage. That doesn’t happen with an average QB. Lockette would have been less likely to face single coverage against an average QB because there’d be one more man free to drop in coverage should that QB rear back to pass. Wilson dropped a perfect pass over Talib hitting Lockette in stride that allowed him to break it for the touchdown. I’m not sure an average QB does that. You’re also making the assumption that with an average free safety replacing Thomas, it turns the Seattle D into an average D that Manning scores 40 ppg on. I don’t believe that’s the case, the defense is far more stacked than the offense. I believe they’d still be above average. OTOH if you replace Wilson with an average QB the offense becomes truly pedestrian. You’d have a quarterback without the mobility to escape the onslaught from the terrible offensive line play. You’d have Lynch and Harvin. That’s it. Last year you’d just have Lynch and while Seattle had a bottom 5 offensive line. An average QB would get murdered back there. Defense you’d still have elite players at a number of other positions without Earl. That’s why I don’t see how you can possibly conclude that an average QB wouldn’t be as detrimental in Wilson’s place as an average safety in Thomas’ place.

          • Dohkay

            Sure he is mobile and most QBs are not. That certainly demands extra attention and that’s a credit to Wilson. I think you’re taking Lynch for granted though. 2,800+ yards on a 4.5 YPC in 2012 and 2013 is bested only by Peterson, Morris, and Charles. Couple that with the need to only score 16 points a game on average to win and I think an average QB could manage just fine, even with a shoddy o-line (Romo and Cutler have plenty of experience with shoddy o-lines by the way).

            I’m not suggesting Manning would drop 40 on a defense without ET but I’d venture a guess he is closer to 40 than he is to 13 (his average the last two games against Seattle).

          • [email protected]

            Russell Wilson is the difference between Marshawn Lynch averaging 4.2 yards per carry (his career best) to 5.0 yards per carry in 2012. Russell Wilson ‘blocks’ a player on most running plays because they have to account for him. The line was decimated by injuries in 2013 look for Lynch to get back close to 5 yards a carry in 2014.

          • Dohkay

            #statementwithnothingtobackitup

          • [email protected]

            What is to back up? Russell Wilson was the only change in the Seattle offense between 2011 and 2012. His ability to run read option makes Lynch better.

            Do you think Alfred Morris is really that good? Or was he also reaping the benefits of the read option in 2012?

            Shady McCoy just happened to have a career year almost exactly like Marshawn Lynch’s 2012 in 2013. Its a coincidence that that was when they just happened to start running read option?

          • Dohkay

            Wilson had 130 yards rushing through the first 10 games of his career. I don’t think teams went into that season saying “We need to stop this rookie QB!” Also, even IF they spied Wilson every play, a spy would be in the box and thus another defender that Lynch has to get by. That’s not exactly a favorable matchup for a RB to have another guy in the box.

            Alfred Morris played in the infamous zone blocking scheme of Mike Shanahan. Go check out the list of 1,000 yard rushers from Denver in the 2000s. Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson come to mind…

            Shady McCoy also got the boost of playing in Chip Kelly’s offense which so far has taken the NFL by storm. Teams don’t seem to have an answer for it.

          • [email protected]

            Just because i say that a fork is good to eat with, that doesnt mean that a spoon wouldn’t also work. I never said zone read was the only way to run the ball. I said it IS a way to run the ball.

          • [email protected]

            Defensive coordinators don’t want to see this offense in the NFL -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUByFJv1ZKo
            -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MnkLB0PmLw

          • [email protected]

            I like how you arbitrarily cut it off at 10 games in his rookie year. What happened after that? OH YEAH, THATS WHEN THEY STARTED TO USE THE ZONE READ.

          • eYeDEF

            This is odd. Just the other day you were saying Wilson was ‘mediocre’. Now it appears you’ve upgraded your assessment of him to being a ‘good QB’. That sounds like a flip flop. Or maybe you’re starting to see the light after being pummeled with the reality.

          • Dohkay

            I should have clarified… He is good in the offensive system he’s in. I still consider the group of QBs he’s with in my rankings (Cutler, Romo, Smith, etc.) mediocre in that they are replaceable. The same cannot be said about the guys in front of him.

            By the way, I’m being “pummeled” by a bunch of Hawks fans. Nobody else has disagreed with me about Wilson who doesn’t routinely comment on Hawks blogs. I wouldn’t call that reality. It’s called bias.

          • eYeDEF

            I didn’t have a problem with what you were saying until you described him as ‘mediocre’ when he’s been anything but mediocre. I wouldn’t yet put him on par with the top 5 on your list. But to say your admitted homer pick is not replaceable while Wilson is doesn’t quite sync with reality either. I’m also not sure what you see in Matt Ryan that makes him irreplaceable while Wilson is replaceable.

          • Dohkay

            Both of those players have to score at least a TD more per game than Wilson. They don’t have the luxury of an elite defense to bail them out if they have an off game. Both have thrown for 4000 plus yards and 30 plus TDs.

          • eYeDEF

            Let’s look a little deeper into your contention that Wilson’s defense is there to bail him out when he has an off game. That happened once last season, in the game against Houston. Outside of that it didn’t happen because unlike the other two QBs you mentioned he just doesn’t have many ‘off games’. That would seem to make him much more irreplaceable than those two.

          • Dohkay

            I’ve already detailed this out in a separate comment. I’ll try to find it and reply to you tomorrow.

          • Dohkay

            In addition to the Houston game which you mentioned, he’s won games such as:

            9/15/13 (SF) – Wins 29-3 going 8-19, 142 yards 1 TD, 1 INT and 10 rushes for 33 yards

            1/1/14 (NO – Playoffs) – Wins 23-15 going 9-18, 100 yards, 0 TDs or INTs and 3 rushes for 16 yards

            Hell, the guy has had 13 games out of 40 career games where his defense has allowed net points of 9 or less (accounting for defensive scores). Stafford has had 5 such games out of 65 career games.

          • ninskidog

            You picked the two worst games from last year. What about the most important regular season game in Seahawks history? Week 13 against the Saints, how did that go? You pick stats to suit your argument and neglect the real truth, you know it. I like Matthew but he is nowhere near the NFL qb that Wilson is. Wilson’s team is better also but don’t short change Russell becauseof it. Stafford is an arm, Russell is a complete qb with a great arm

          • Dohkay

            If you read the thread you’d understand why I picked those games out. It’s kind of funny though how you get mad about me picking 3 games out and then you pull out some BS about the most important game in the hawks regular season as proof that he’s a god or something.

            Matthew doesn’t have a 1500 yard back, hes never had a top 10 defense much less the number 1 defense that Wilson has had for both of his seasons. He also was drafted by the worst team in NFL history…

          • [email protected]

            How many 1500 yard seasons did Lynch have before Russell Wilson got there? Its his ability to run the ball and run the read option that makes Beastmode really devastating. The way Russell Wilson plays he makes everybody around him better especially the running backs. Its funny how the Seahawks receivers went from 15th in drops to #1 the year that Russell Wilson arrived?

            Having a number one defense is not just the defense. Its also the offense not turning the ball over and running clock. The Seahawks aren’t a #1 defense with Stafford.

          • Dohkay

            The guy ran for 1200 yards with T Jack. If you want me to credit Wilson for 300 more yards I won’t argue since T Jack is god awful. Using drops for your argument about making WRs better is puzzling to me since it doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with QB play. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have had teams lead the league in drops and drop percentage. Is that on them?

          • [email protected]

            It was 386 more yards, at .8 more yards per carry. Thats a significant difference. As far as drops go, he throws a very accurate and catch-able ball. His father was nearly an NFL receiver and he will throw it where his receivers want it. I think people mistake this for accuracy at times. When he was throwing to Braylon Edwards he would throw it short and high. He throws it backdoor to Jermaine Kearse. He throws it behind Doug Baldin on crossing routes, Doug likes it there he spins and turns up field.

          • Dohkay

            Now we are bringing up his dad and his athletic traits too. I’m officially done debating with Hawks fans for a week. Good chat.

          • [email protected]

            You dont think throwing a nice catchable ball with touch decreases drops? Doesn’t Stafford lead the league in drops every year because he throws it so damn hard?

          • ninskidog

            Dude, Stafford is a great fantasy qb and barely an average actual qb. If Wilson threw it 730 times he would have 6200 yards and 50+ TD’s. Ryan was good last year and his team won 4 games or so, he really carries his team. In a few years you will beg for your team to trade Stafford for Wilson, but it will cost them at least 4 first round draft picks. Lol

          • Dohkay

            Dude insightful stuff lol bro right?

      • atyler2011

        Agree. But I don’t think holding the ball too long is one of them. The receivers are not consistently open and at times he is trying to hard to make big plays (i.e. comment above), instead of taking what the defense gives you, especially in the second half of the game. He is not playing well at all. And it seems he is forcing the issue when it is not necessary. That what makes him so good in the first two seasons. He is playing like a rookie in making decisions. It is very unlike RW.

        • Jay

          I should have made myself more clear. I don’t have a problem when he holds the ball while moving. My problem is when he holds the ball too long in the pocket. Like when he was sacked deep in his own territory near the goal line. He didn’t feel Miller at all and got sacked which nearly led to a fumble recovery by Denver. Hope that clears up my thoughts.

          • atyler2011

            To be fair, at the goal line, DM was eaten up JB like cookie monster eating his cookie and he didn’t have a chance. Time to pass was less than 2 seconds for that particular attempt. But I do agree, at times, he does hold the ball a bit longer but his receivers need to get open too. We don’t have the best of route-running wide receivers corps. So I believe that is why our scheme is pretty “simple” in the context of short and quick out and fly routes. If you look last year pass distribution, our scheme was pretty much “going deep”, more than the league average, w/ deeper drop and route. We also had one of the lowest time in time to pass under the 2 seconds category (almost double the league average- 14.7% vs. 9.3%) I don’t know the pass distribution up to this point of the season but I do believe they are probably shorter drop w/ shorter route. We haven’t had one pass over 40+ yards yet. Last year we were one of the leaders in the league in that particular category. But we are on pace w/ last year under the 20+ yards play.

      • Jon

        Any QB who completes 90% of their passes will have made plays. Extend your logic further–why not use 99% then? 100%? Is a QB who passes for 100% of his passes not having a positive impact on his team? Poor reasoning, but I do understand the point you’re trying to make.

        • Jay

          Throwing 8 screen passes in a game and completing 8 is 100%. But making a completion on a screen in itself is not a good play. That is the point I am making.

          • [email protected]

            Why you hating on Peyton?

      • asdf

        “held the ball too long”. Put on the All-22 when it’s available. Nobody was open downfield. Denver has a terrific CB trio. Getting rid of it just for the sake of satisfying people who like quick releases would have resulted in more interceptions. Other QBs throw it away, Wilson scrambles. But people just assume “oh he’d rather tuck and run” instead of stay in a pocket that isn’t actually a pocket but an amoeba getting invaded by foreign bodies instantly off the snap

      • [email protected]

        Yes, this website is a tool.

    • Dohkay

      24-34, 258 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT with 9 rushes for 40 yards = MVP level. Yikes.

      Let’s go to the 4th quarter and check on Mr. Wilson… Up 17-3, Wilson takes a sack at his own 1-yard line which sets up a
      safety on the next play to cut the lead to 17-5. The defense steps up
      and forces a punt after kicking off to Denver and Wilson’s first play of
      the next drive, up 17-5, is an INT setting up Manning from the SEA 19
      leading to their first TD and cutting the lead to 17-12.

      So, through 3 quarters his defense had surrendered 3 points to Denver and then in a span of 4 minutes the score is 17-12 thanks almost solely to Wilson. MVP level, indeed.

      • RA

        I didnt realize that wilson was also responsible for his own blocks. Interesting.

        • Dohkay

          What I’m about to tell you may blow your mind so please make sure you’re sitting. Quarterbacks can in fact change the protection scheme pre-snap, call audibles to adjust for the pass rush, etc.

          Fun reading: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-quarterbacks-true-sack-rate

          • atyler2011

            That is a pretty interesting stats. We can see clearly, under the different combination of rooted causes for sacks, RW was under heavy pressure (the numbers would have had been higher if it was not for his great escape ability) Those numbers tell you a couple of things- 1) we have a lousy OL, 2) our wide receivers are indeed “pedestrian” in running precise and good route but pretty in good on deeper route like fly pattern. The guy took a beating and I believe it was one of the biggest factors that he “tailed off” toward the end of the season. You can only face so much pressure and take so many hits, granted not too many “salacious” ones because of his high football IQ in knowing how to protect himself. But I don’t care how good you are if you are consistently harassed and pressurized, it will get to you. All qbs will attest to that condition.

          • Dohkay

            https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/signature.php?tab=signature&season=2014&stype=r&pos=qbt&teamid=-1&filter=50

            Wilson has the highest time in the pocket before throwing this year which was also the highest in 2013 and 2012. I’ll grant you that your o-line isn’t very good, at least when it comes to pass blocking, but Seattle is able to offset that with misdirection and a run game. This year they’ve been putting Percy in motion and faking the jet sweep which freezes defenders who already have to maintain their gaps to account for Wilson scrambling (which is a credit to Wilson). That gives him more time in the pocket which allows for separation for his receivers.

            I think his receivers are very underrated and while it hurts to lose Tate they effectively replaced him with Percy who is now healthy (for the time-being). Still, Wilson generates a lot of big plays by holding on to the ball but with it comes the risk of big sacks like he took on Sunday.

          • atyler2011

            Actually, our running game gets all the recognition because of volume, not from efficiency perspective. That is our philosophy and scheme wise. We do it because it involves being physical and toughness. Did you know, the Colts have a higher adjusted net rushed per attempt last year than the Hawks? They had the same yards per attempt as well. Nobody would point out that they are a physical team, at least on the offensive of the ball. The problem was they didn’t or want to commit to the run. Actually, efficiency wise, AL is the best running quarterback. He is pretty good in that facet of his game. Seattle commits to its identity by running a lot. Our receivers are o.k, outside of PH, consider that most of them are undrafted or low picks. They are good in “broken plays” because they spend and work together in the off season w/ RS, not necessary the best or precise route-running receiving corps. Yes, it is true that RW is taking a lot of negative plays, in sack, but we also produce a lot of big plays (i.e. 20+ yard), as a percentage and raw numbers. I believe we were second, only to the Eagles, under such category.

          • Dohkay

            Do you know why the Colts don’t rush more? Their defense doesn’t allow them to. They have given up an average of 24.0 PPG compared to Seattle’s 15.7 over the past 2+ seasons (playoffs included). It’s awfully hard to rush the ball 30 times a game and win when you give up that many points. You’ll note a similar trend for the Hawks offense when the defense gives up more than 24 points per game on the rare occasions that it happens.

          • [email protected]

            The Colts are 4-8 when Andrew Luck throws 40 or more passes. Their defense would give up less PPG if they ran the ball more. Its called running clock and shortening the game. The Seahawks are a #1 defense in part because of their offense.

          • Dohkay

            Right. Has nothing to do with the fact that the average points allowed in those games is 34 including 5 games where the defense gave up 40+. Also has nothing to do with the fact that

            Donald Brown and Trent Richardson are the RBs (and Vic Ballard in 2012 – woo hoo!). Their career numbers total 1,311 rushes for 5,004 yards and a whopping 3.8 YPC (for reference, Lynch checks in at 1,805 for 7,623 and a 4.2 YPC).

            The Colts haven’t had a 1,000 yard rusher since 2007 even with PM throwing the ball which one would think opens up the running game since stacking the box against that guy is a poor decision.

            Of course I don’t expect you to grasp that. You’re the same guy that thinks a 1,200 yard season on 4.2 YPC from Lynch when he had T-Jack was merely average. Must be nice.

          • [email protected]

            1200 and 4.2 is a nice year. Its not in the same league as 1600 and 5.0

          • Dohkay

            Almost like the year AP went for 2,097 yards on 6.0 YPC (both by far career highs) thanks to the threat of Christian Ponder at QB.

          • [email protected]

            Donald Brown averaged 5 yards a carry for Indy. I think they just dont like winning football games. Hand him the ball.

          • Dohkay

            RIght? He’s so good he was picked up by San Diego to be their 3rd string RB. If that’s the best you’ve got I’m out. Have a good one.

          • [email protected]

            Some teams would rather throw the football than win. Indy and San Diego are two of them.

          • [email protected]

            Thats an interesting point. Christian Ponder is a mobile quarterback. I think we can throw out the idea that a pocket passer makes your running game better. Michael Vick’s Atlanta teams led the league in rushing every year.

        • jacklaughing

          Don’t bother arguing with this guy. He’s a Russell Wilson troll with a big hard-on for Andrew Luck. He’ll argue the same points endlessly.

          • Dohkay

            Oh look, another Hawks homer who can’t bare the thought that his QB gets more credit than he deserves! By the way, I have a hard-on for Matt Stafford (I’m a Lions fan), not Andrew Luck. I just recognize actual talent when I see it and can give credit to an opposing QB that truly deserves it instead of heaping praise on a QB who is the 3rd or 4th most valuable player on his own team at best.

          • [email protected]

            This is why statistics are bogus. Time to throw has nothing to do with pass protection. You might not realize this but Russell Wilson is pretty fast and evasive.

          • Dohkay

            Did I say that? Let me restate it one more time. “I’ll grant you that your o-line isn’t very good, at least when it comes
            to pass blocking, but Seattle is able to offset that with misdirection
            and a run game.”

          • [email protected]

            My bad. I dont get your point though. Why bring up a statistic that you know is meaningless?

          • Dohkay

            It’s not meaningless. He doesn’t get that much time thanks to spectacular blocking but rather the scheme. Seattle is able to run a lot of zone reads and play action passes thanks to Lynch, Harvin, and of course, the speed/mobility of Wilson. The more time he has to throw, the more time his WRs have to get open and the more likely that pass coverage breaks down.

            It’s an enormous advantage afforded to him thanks to the players around him. Teams have to respect Lynch and Harvin and he gets favorable matchups in the passing game and the extra time to attack them.

          • [email protected]

            Oh i see what you’re saying. You’re wrong. The time to throw isn’t related to time to pressure. Especially with a QB like Russell Wilson. He was the most pressured and still managed the longest time to throw.

      • Aethelred

        Yes, obviously Wilson is not even on the MVP radar right now. I don’t see the point of declaring candidates so early in the season to begin with, but for any number of reasons,, Wilson is not off to a stellar start. The OP is apparently dead-set on denying it. Fine. The stat line for the game shows otherwise, as you point out. Everything below it goes too far in the other direction. You selectively focus on a few miserable minutes of the game for Wilson to make him look far worse than he actually was. He had some stretches where he played very well, too. And pinning all of the blame on Wilson for what happened in those four minutes is also silly. He made a terrible decision on the INT, no argument there. He held onto the ball too long on the sack. In both cases, though, the terrible play calling put him in unnecessarily situations. Passing deep inside your own territory when Lynch is averaging something like 6 yds/carry is a stupid way to go, especially when you’re up two scores late in the game and the defense has to be more aggressive. Wilson had a couple major lapses, but no way was he “almost solely” responsible for those nine points.

        • Dohkay

          I’m not going to blame the coaches for deciding to throw a few passes early in the 4th quarter, especially when the opposing QB is capable of ripping off an 80-yard TD drive in under a minute. Don’t get me wrong, a 14-point lead looked relatively safe up to that point but everybody knows Manning is more than capable of scoring and scoring quickly (which he showed once again).

          If we’re to believe that Wilson truly is an elite QB than Carroll should (and apparently does) trust him to make smart decisions with the ball in key situations. He trusted him to do so and Wilson made two awful decisions that enabled Manning to get back into the game.

          • Aethelred

            OK. Passing in that situation makes very little sense to me. In any game, a team with a sizable lead in the 4th wants to eat up clock. Throwing a few passes isn’t a necessarily bad, and makes sense plenty of times to keep a drive alive and the clock rolling. But inside your own ten, the risk of giving up points to the D goes way up. On average, a turnover is about twice as likely on a passing play. And Lynch’s YPC was far above average. Put that all together and there’s a strong case against passing.

            I’m not trying to tell you that Wilson is an elite QB or MVP material or whatever measuring stick you want to use. I think he’s had a rocky start, too. He’s just not the only person responsible for those bad plays or the nine points they resulted in.

          • Dohkay

            Up to that point Lynch had 46 yards on 12 carries (just under 4 ypc). Furthermore, from the start of the 3rd quarter Seattle handed the ball off to Lynch (and Turbin once) 7 times for a total of 5 yards. Denver was shutting down the run especially in the second half when they knew Seattle wanted to control the clock and keep Peyton on the sidelines.

            Again, I’m not going to fault Carroll for trusting Wilson. He has proven himself a sound decision maker in the past as he rarely turns the ball over (though he has a penchant for holding the ball too long and taking sacks). In this case he did the opposite of what he usually does with a big lead. Also, we don’t know for sure that the sidelines called those plays. For all we know, Wilson saw what appeared to be favorable matchups for a pass and audibled to it. Either way he’s an NFL QB and at this point a veteran NFL QB who should have made a smarter play.

          • atyler2011

            Taking too many sacks involved a lot of factors. See comment above. Study the details of that particular breakdown by FO. If you look at PFF’s last year pass distribution, under the time to pass category, our average was almost double the league in the less than 2 seconds category (14.9 vs. 9.3) As you look at that chart, it gets better when he extended the play under the 5 to 6 seconds. BTW, his grade was also higher under the category. Also under TTT, his ratings went off the chart under most of the “longer duration” categories. He is truly dangerous when extending plays outside the pocket.

          • Dohkay

            I’m not arguing that him extending plays with his feet isn’t beneficial to his team. However, when you have a big lead you don’t need a big play and it cost them on Sunday. A smarter QB recognizes the rush and makes a quick throw rather than hanging on to the ball and taking a sack at your own goal-line. If the game is on the line and they need a big play then obviously that’s fine but at that point they don’t need the SC Top 10 play by him, just a positive yardage play that keeps the clock moving.

          • atyler2011

            I’d agree w/ you on the interception but not on the sack itself. I blame it on the play calling, at that point with the field position, but they trust RW so they made the call, when knowingly your tackle is getting beaten up like a drum the whole game. I believe RW probably has less than 2 seconds for that particular attempt. Denver probably would not have scored the safety if ML just ran straight, instead of laterally as he often does in trying to break tackles, not smart when you are on a one-yard line. Regarding to questioning RW’s intelligence is very insulting. I would not make that “assessment”, as some source of an expert, on anyone intelligence when considering you have a “man thing” for MS, and even AL for that matter (i.e 7 ints in the playoffs really?)

          • Dohkay

            http://www.denverbroncos.com/multimedia/videos/Ware-sacks-Russell-Wilson/dbb63d0e-0368-401e-8f3e-fa421b2d6fc1

            He had more than 2 seconds. Fair point on the ML run but either way that’s setting up a punt at the back of the endzone and potential block or at the very worst good field position (although given Ryan’s day punting he’d probably have pinned him back at the 20!).

            I’m not questioning his intelligence but on this particular play he seems to forget the game situation. It happens, but a SB winning 3 year vet is expected to know better.

            As for your INT comments, consider the game was 31-10 with 16 minutes remaining in the game before Luck threw the first INT against KC. He was not responsible for the deficit and he was solely responsible for them winning that game even with his 3 INTs. His first 2 INTs in NE hurt him obviously but his final 2 come when they’re down 14 with 13 minutes left in the game.

            So 5 of his 7 INTs came when he was trailing by 2 TDs or more which is when you’d expect INTs to happen as you need to throw and throw some more to score quickly. Russell has needed to score more than 17 points in one of his five playoff games and it’s also his only loss in the playoffs. Don’t blame Luck for Indy losing those games.

          • atyler2011

            Fair point. We can agree to disagree on that. I’d hold him more “accountable” w/ the interception rather than
            the sack due to the circumstance regarding to the play calling and execution. He had more time to make the decision in the interception situation rather than on the sack. Regarding to AL’s interceptions, which I should not have brought it up, because it has no bearing to what we are talking about. But if we are discussing it right now then I am not quite sure where you get the information about the timing of those interceptions. Yes, it is true that they were behind by the score of 31-10. But the timings are not accurate. His 1st one came at 13:09 in the second quarter, 2nd on the first play, at the start of the 3rd quarter, and the third came at the 9:10 mark. Yes, he is not responsible for
            the deficit but he did have the opportunities to keep his team close. In the KC game, both teams had the same number of possessions at 5, before the interception,
            that gave KC one extra possession before the half. You can make the argument that their defense stink but to say AL has had no “impact”, at that point, of the game is more than “misleading”. To be fair, they did score on 2 of the 5 drives, one td and one filed goal, which is not a bad percentage at 40% (they did have one fumble so at 50%, which is pretty good) But he can help the team by scoring touchdown themselves on those drives, instead of having one field goal. Now, let’s look at the NE game, his 1st interception came in the first quarter after 3 plays and there were no score, at their own 29. NE scored right afterward. So he was responsible for that particular score by giving NE a very short field at the two yard line, after the return. The second came, after they scored a touchdown and a field goal, at around the 2 minutes warning. NE couldn’t take advantage, so no harm no foul. The half time score was relatively close at 21-12. The game was still in reach, after the 3rd quarter, at 29-22. Going to the fourth quarter, the Colts could not do anything w/ their continued drive and NE scored on its following drive to make it 36-22, still in reach, with about 13 minutes to go. The third one came, after the NE’s score, on the first play. NE scored right afterward w/ Blount’s long run. At that point, the game was basically over at 43-22. The 4th one was meaningless. So I am not quite sure where you’d think AL somehow has no bearing on the outcome of each game regarding to his interceptions. We know that you like AL, which is fine, but when it comes to making mistakes, you and the national media seem to be impervious to the facts. AL is a very good young qb but to put him above the rest is ridiculous at this point of his career. Everyone already put him into the HOF before taking any professional snaps. You know the talking points about how he has performed under pressure and how good he is, that might be true, but the numbers do not bear out. Here is a little tidbit for you- according to PFF’s grades, he graded out at 2.1, which is average, against the blitz and 1 at pressure; qb ratings, from playing behind, is at 78.2, and lower when faced higher deficits, between 9-16 points, at 72.75. Red zone is at 82. Here is RW’s numbers facing the same situations- 21.5 (1st) against blitz and 4.5 (3rd) against pressure; 101.08 ratings when playing from behind, and his ratings is actually higher at higher deficits at 113.45. His red zone is 98.25. All these numbers are career average. Regarding to this RW vs. AL discussion, which I am tired of talking, but it is such an eerie similar path between PM and TB (i.e. first pick vs low pick, high expectations vs. no expectations, had to prove themselves etc.) We shall see in a few years. Just enjoy their abilities and skills at the moment. They are both good football players but more importantly very good people and great ambassadors to the game for the next generation of qbs.

          • Dohkay

            KC Game – KC scores TDs on four of their first five drives with a FG on the one drive they didn’t score a TD. Luck scores a TD on his first drive, goes 3 and out on the second, hands off to Richardson on the first play of the third drive and Richardson fumbles it away, gets a FG on his fourth drive, and finally throws his first INT with 20 seconds remaining in the first half down 31-10. I’m not sure where you are getting your info on his INTs but his first INT doesn’t come until almost the end of the half.

            Now – if you want to fault the guy for going 3 and out on his second drive of the day be my guest, but he scored points on 2 of his first 4 drives and really one of those drives he couldn’t do anything because Richardson fumbled on the first play. His fifth drive starts with 1:50 remaining in the half down 31-10. His defense gave him about as big of a hole as possible. Consider that Wilson’s defense has given up more than 31 in a game only once (@ Indy in 2013). Imagine having that much in a half!

            Luck of course throws a pick to start the third quarter putting them down 38-10 before leading TD drives of 80 and 41 yards before throwing his 3rd pick while trailing 38-24 which leads to a FG. Two of his three INTs lead to 10 points – that’s on him. He follows it with an 80 yard TD drive, 90 yard TD drive and one more 80 yard TD drive to take the lead with 4 minutes to go. I think he made up for his two costly errors that came trailing by three and two TDs respectively.

            As for NE… Like I said, his first two INTs definitely cost him. The first turned into 7 for NE via a good return and short field, and his second likely wiped out a potential FG since they had 1st and 10 at the NE 39 with a minute left in the half. Only scoring on 2 of his 6 drives in the first half and turning one of those drives into 7 for the opposition hurt him.

            Second half he goes FG, TD to bring the score to 22-29, then trades punts with NE twice before Blount rips off a 70 yard TD to make it 22-36 with 13 minutes to go. Then he throws INT #3 which pretty much seals the deal when NE scores via another short field to make it 22-43. INT #4 comes with 40 seconds left in the game down 21 points.

            I don’t fault his 3 INTs in KC because again, he was down 21 points before throwing one despite scoring on 2 of his first 4 drives with one being a fumble by the RB. Even if he scores on all 3 he’s down 31-21 starting his 5th drive. That’s pretty hard to blame AL there.

            In NE, his first two are bad and no doubt cost them the game. His 3rd came down two scores with 13 minutes left in the game which is obvious passing situation pretty much every play and the defense knows he needs to score quickly as time is running out and they’re down 14. The fourth one is basically a garbage time INT.

            I’ll address your other points about comparing him to RW tomorrow as I’ve had enough debate for one day. Cheers!

          • atyler2011

            I don’t know why you needed to reiterate the whole plays sequence as I did. The fact of the matter is both games were still in “play” and not as a “desperate” situation that you made it out to be. If the situation requires you to be “clutch:” then be it. That is the definition of clutch right, making plays when the opponent knows that you need to make them. That is the separation between ordinary, good, and great players.- perform under pressurized situations. Also, I don’t buy into the argument that he needed to pass when in fact the game plan was to pass. Their pass/run ratio was 61/39 percentage wise during the season and KC defense was a “wreck” toward the end of the season. They were second to last in pass defense from week 12 to 17. AL did not take advantage of that particular weakness. And it showed at the end when the Colts won the game. That said, AL has been very good in terms of comebacks and GWDs, leading the league for the last 2 years with 11 combined, RW is second w/ 10. Good luck w/ the research. Enjoy the discussion.

          • Dohkay

            So let me get this straight. Down 31-10 in the playoffs when your defense has surrendered 31 points on five drives is not a desperate situation? What is? How many times have teams come back from 21 points at halftime? What’s the percentage on that one? My guess is it’s very low, hence a desperate situation.

            As for your GWD comments, I’m not a fan of that metric. It credits GWDs that can start in the 3Q and end in the 4Q which leaves 10+ minutes on the clock. By that measure we should look at game clinching 3Q drives too, right?

            Either way, both are indeed very good. I prefer to look at drives that start with less than 5:00 in the 4th quarter as my measure of a “clutch” GWD. By that measure, RW has 4 (though one was blown by his defense in Atlanta in the playoffs) while AL has 5 (though one was blown by his defense against JAX in 2012).

            I’m not a fan of counting OT wins either since it’s dependant on either winning a coin-flip or having your defense stop the opposing team. AL is 1 for 1 in OT (he won the coin flip). RW is 5 for 5 in OT (3 coin flips won and the other 2 times the defense didn’t give up points on the opening drive).

            Throw in the number of failed GWD’s and AL has 1 while RW has 4. It’s tough to draw a line in the sand on those and makes for great debate but I think we can both agree that they are pretty much equal in terms of clutch.

          • atyler2011

            But my point is if he is that good then he did have the same opportunities to match KC’s scoring. So what is the difference between trailing 31-10 in the first half and the second half? He just happened to play better in the second half. So is that the product of his own plays or KC defense? Probably a combination of both like what I’ve indicated from my previous post (i.e Indy game plan and KC deficiency in defense) You used the measurement in “passing the ball more” to justify the “desperation” situation. We can use each the preferable metric to make our case, which is fine, but at the final analysis we have to look at the whole “enchilada” as the measurement. From my perspective, each player has specific skills and talents and he or she probably can perform at the high level in certain situations. But to measure yourself as good or great then you have to be the “total package”, which means you have to be well-rounded in all situations. For example, I can be very confident to say Michael Vick is the greatest running back quarterback of all time based on his production and style. But is he one of the best qbs? Not even close. I tend to agree w/ you about the comebacks and GWDs metric, alone as a “clutch” measurement. For instance, Mark Sanchez, in his first two or three seasons (I am not quite sure), had 14 and the clear leader in this category. But we all know the only thing that people associate him with is the butt-fumble guy. I do feel sorry for him when anyone is trying to google about MS. Enjoy the discussion.

          • Dohkay

            Fun with splits for their careers…

            Final Score Margin +- 7 points: Wilson has 25 TDs, 15 INTs on 521 attempts along with 2 rushing TDs on 115 attempts. Luck has 32 TDs, 13 INTs on 703 attempts along with 7 rushing TDs on 80 rushing attempts. Passer rating favors Wilson at 89.7 vs 85.5 for Luck.

            Fourth quarter +-7 points: Wilson has 8 TDs, 6 INTs on 143 attempts along with 1 rushing TD on 143 attemps. Luck has 6 TDs, 3 INTs on 35 attempts along with 2 rushing TDs on 37 attempts. Passer rating favors Luck at 84.3 vs 81.9 for Wilson.

            Now, where Wilson truly shines is when the final margin is +- 15 points. He has 27 TDs, 5 INTs on 313 attempts along with 3 rushing TDs on 77 attempts. Luck has 15 TDs, 15 INTs on 457 attempts along with 3 rushing TDs on 39 attempts. Passer rating favors Wilson 116.7 to 79.0. Both had 14 such games. Unfortunately for Luck, half of those games were losses while Wilson enjoyed wins in ALL 14.

            Now before you try to claim that Wilson was the reason they had those 14 blowouts please keep in mind that the defense forced 3.2 TOs on average, scored 10 TDs themselves, and gave Wilson 11 drives starting at the opposing 35 or better. Further, the defense gave up more than 17 points in exactly one game and the average point total surrender was 9.5. In other words, the defense was only -64 in point differential after factoring in their own scoring.

            Likewise, Luck in his 7 blowouts enjoyed 2.7 TOs on average, got 3 defensive TDs, and 6 drives starting at the opposing 35 or better. The defense never gave up more than 17 and the average points given up was 8.1. Factoring in their own scoring, the point differential for the defense alone was -46. Luck had 10 TDs, 3 INTs and 3 rushing TDs for a passer rating of 98.6. When it comes to blowouts, Wilson is much better with his 116.7 rating. No argument from me :)

          • atyler2011

            Nice work on the stats and nice try in making your case.
            First, we are comparing apples and oranges. We are TALKING about at each moment of the game, not the whole game as a totality (even it is true that your stats
            indicated how AL outperformed RW under the “within rule” that you put in) What with the +/ – thing? I know you are trying to make the point of a “close game” but the fact of the matter is there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between being ahead by 7 and behind by 7. Second, I never have
            said anything about blowout games like your implication of +/ – and your inference in making the case that RW excelled under that category because of his defense. That is true in the context of a team has a higher probability in
            scoring with a shorter field, as a team, but it DOES NOT represent the INDIVIDUAL performance (i.e. red zone efficiency). Based on the “shorter field” argument, then all qbs should have very high red zone efficiency because of it but the numbers do not pan out for most or average qbs. If you study all the “elite” qbs, they perform very well under this metric. In my opinion, if you are going to utilize the “within rule” then I’d propose to use the average ratings between playing ahead and playing behind because you can make an argument that, if that is the case, then the qb needs to do well in both situations, not just “within that particular score”. Some players are good as front-runner and some as behind-runner.
            Looks like you are good in math so you can do the calculation to see who performs better under that parameter. That being said, you and I can sit here
            and make our point until our faces turn blue but for me it is just too early to say either way. Usually, it takes a quarterback about 3 to 4 years to fully “develop”
            then we can really have a true assessment of each qb. For one thing that is certain and it is what I called an AL phenomenon (all statistical measurements)
            Based on all advanced metrics, he only excels under the ESPN’s QBR and if you study all others like NEP, ColdHardFootball, PFF, FO etc. and even the most use
            and highly correlated metric, ANY/A (actually, ESPN’s QBR has a higher correlation, even though that analysis was done w/ a very small sample and “highly suspected” assumptions); he is “average”. Is he an outlier? I don’t know but I found it is very interesting. It is an
            anomaly because in scientific research reliability and validity is the foundation in doing research. It does not make any sense that you do well in one measurement and not the others. The funny thing is if you aligned all the
            advanced metrics analyses, side by side, they are pretty accurate in the context of where each player ranked according to each measurement ; not the exact spot but very close. The national media starts to pick this up as well when Bill Polian, at ESPN, made the statement, I am paraphrasing, “ AL is good but the numbers do not reflect it”. That is my point for this discussion, it seems numbers DO NOT apply to AL for some reasons when everyone else is. We can all agree that PM is one of the greatest regular season qbs, based on what, his individual production and win/loss record. For me, I really do not care, everyone has his or her own favorites and they can make a case to prove his or her is better than others. The bottom line for me is both of these young qbs
            are good and have a chance to become great but we can only judge them based on their own historical activities. So let’s wait a few years. But as a fan, I really do not care about individual statistics because they have no value for
            me; they are personal accomplishments and for the players themselves. Winning and winning championships are. I’d rather take Troy Aikman, Joe Montana, Tom
            Brady, or Terry Bradshaw over PM anytime. Have a good day.

          • Dohkay

            Your last statement is all I need to see. You’re one of those people that gives all the credit of a team to one player, namely the QB, and any QB that fails to win a championship (or multiple ones) is inferior regardless of their stats or lack of a defense. I wish you would have started with that. It would have saved me plenty of time.

          • atyler2011

            Oh, here we go AGAIN. These guys just can’t help themselves, can they? Based their “observations” of the
            “eye-test”, pick out ONE game to justify the opinion; the laziness of these people. Maybe these guys SHOULD subscribe to others TRUE analytic sites (i.e. football focus, football perspectives, cold hard football, NEP etc.) that
            do REALLY analyses, BASED ON EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, rather than your own BIASED opinions. What can you say at this point? 11-5 w/o RW, really? I guess he has
            forgotten that they were 7-9 for two seasons, prior to RW came on-board, with basically the same roster (exactly on offense, w/o MB, CA, and BW on defense). I am getting tired of these ‘analyses” that premised on the factors of AL is playing w/ an inferior team, clutch factor, and “throwing the ball down the field”. This is nothing further from the truth. Let’s compare the TEAM- a team
            basically makes up by 3 components- off, def, and special team. Let’s not do defense because we all know Seattle has a better defense. So let’s focus on the other two- offensive unit- let’s break down to sub-unit- OL, passing game, and running game. Let’s examine the talents of the pass-catcher. Based on football focus analysis, here is its take on the talent level-

            Wide receiver-

            Indy- 2 high quality (Wayne and Allen),
            1 good starter (Hilton), 1 average (Fleener) (this is not including Nicks because he was not there last year) 1 1st rounder, 1 2nd rounder, 2 3rd rounders (draft position)

            Seattle- 1 high quality (former Golden Tate), 2 good starter (Zach Miller, Doug Baldwin), 1 average starter (Kearse) (Harvin did not play enough to qualify), 2 2nd rounders, 2 undrafted free agents (draft position)

            Actual production- (receptions, yardage, yards per catch, big plays 20 yards+, big plays %, touchdowns, touchdown %, team target percentage caught, team drop rate)

            Indy- 350 total team receptions out of 582 targets, 3952 total yards, 11.3 average yards per catch, 45 big plays, 7.73% big plays, 23 touchdowns, 3.85% td percentage, 60.7% team target caught, 4.5% team drop rate.

            Seattle- 267 total receptions out of 420 targets, 3508 total yards, 13.1 average yards per catch, 52 big plays,
            12.38% big plays, 27 touchdowns, 6.43% td percentage, 65.3% team target caught, 3.2% team drop rate.

            Summary- It seems Indy has more talents but the production does not correlate to the talents. So there are two possibilities- a) overrated of talents or b) quarterback’s play is not up to par. It is probably a combination of both. One can argue RW makes his teammates better regarding to maximizing the talents around him. RW, supposedly, is a “game manager” but according to these metrics, I want that kind of game manager as my quarterback.

            Offensive Line

            Indy- 2 high quality, 1 average, 1 below, 1 undetermined (not enough information)

            Seattle- 2 high quality, 1 average, 2 below

            Now let’s examine the actual production for the OL (based on passing yards, passing yards per game, pass protection- sacks allowed, sacks percentage, pressurized percentage, ANY/A, and rushing yards (total and per game and adjusted per rush), percentage of total plays, rushing tds %

            Indy- 3,952 total passing yards, 247 average yards per game, 32 sacks allowed, 5.5% sack percentage, 25.6%
            pressurized of total drop backs (i.e. total sacks, hits, pressures, hurries etc.), 5.71 ANY/A (this is the team average, AL’s number is 6.06 in 2013 w/ a career average at 5.85), total rushing yards- 1743 on 409 total attempts, 25.56 rushes per game, 108.9 yards per game, 4.86 adjusted net yard rush attempt, 41.27% of total plays, 3.67% rushing td.

            Seattle- 3,508 total passing yards, 202.3 average yards per game, 44 sacks allowed, 10.48% sack percentage, 32.7% (last) pressurized of total drop backs, 6.68 ANY/A (this is the team overall number, RW’s number actually number is 7.10 for 2013 w/ a career average at 7.05), total rushing yards- 2,188 on 509 attempts, 31.81 rushes per game, 136.8 yards per game, 4.65 adjusted net yard per rush attempt, 54.79% of total plays, 2.75% rushing td.

            Summary- It seems Indy has a better overall OL play. They are much better in pass protection and comparable in the running game as well per indication by the higher adjusted net yard per rush, even though Seattle has an elite running back compared to average running backs for Indy (Football Focus).

            Special Team

            Indy- 1 high quality (McAffee) Punter, 1 good starter (Vinatieri, kicker)

            Seattle- 1 high quality (Haushka), 1 below average (Ryan)

            Actual production-kickoff touchbacks percentage, field goal efficiency, punt average

            Indy- kickoff touchbacks percentage- 46.6%, field goal efficiency- 1.52, punt average 45.4,

            Seattle- kickoff touchbacks percentage- 51.1, field goal efficiency- 1.27, punt average 41.6

            Summary- It looks even here for both teams. Better kicker vs. better punter, even though Indy scored much higher in field goal efficiency (own kicker has better average in
            field goal made per game vs. opponent).

            So as we can see, the team argument is not much of an argument. AL is given with better talents at the skill position, in the offensive unit, but lesser production; however, Indy’s OL is much better, talent wise, and production. So one can argue RW has lesser talents but because of his efficient and effective plays that help to
            maximize his teammates’ skill and talent, which is an indication of great players make their teammates better.

            The Clutch Factor- based on comeback wins, winning drives, and qb ratings in “pressurized situations” like blitz and pressures, playing from behind, and red zone efficiency.

            AL had 8 comebacks and 11 winning drives over the two seasons. Blitz- 2.1 and pressure at 1 grading
            (football focus 2013), playing from behind- 78.2 ratings (career average, his ratings went down at higher deficit (i.e. ratings of 72.75 when trailing between 9-16 points), Red zone passer ratings (career average) – 82.

            RW had 8 comebacks and 10 winning drives over the two
            seasons. Blitz- 21.5 (first in football focus 2013) and pressure at 4.5 (3rd), playing from behind- 101.08 ratings (career wise, actually his ratings were higher at higher deficit (i.e. ratings of 113.45 when trailing between 9-16
            points), red zone efficiency passer ratings (career average) – 98.25 ratings.

            Throw the ball downfield- Total Yards, YAC Percentage, Total Air Yards, Air Yards per Attempt,

            AL- 3,822 total yards, 52.7% is YAC, 1,808 Total Air Yards, Air Yards per Attempt- 3.17
            RW- 3,357 total yards, 46.3% is YAC, 1,804 Total Air Yards, Air Yards per Attempt- 4.43

            Let’s put this area into perspective, AL had a total of 570
            attempts vs. 407 for RW and he had a total of 4 more air yards than RW.

            Additional, qb ratings vs. top-10 team- 2012 RW- 102.9, 2013 (101.2); AL- 68.2 (2012), 79.8 (2013)

            Also, I don’t buy into the lack of defense argument because that is an organization philosophy and decision and how they want to structure its team. If you are “building” your team around one player then you don’t focus too much on other parts of the team. Instead of having a balance team, you spend your resources to “build up” on one part of the team. Balance teams tend to do well in the big prize games. Actually, did you know Indy was in the top-10 in scoring defense in 2013 at 21 per game, which was a great improvement from 2012 with 24.2 that ranked them at 21st? You also forget AFC South is a pretty weak division for the last few years. Have a good day.

          • Dohkay

            Seattle went 7_9 yet you fail to mention Indy going 2-14 BEFORE they drafted Luck. Then you say that Wayne is still high quality and somehow Dwayne Allen (who has about 600 yards in his career and played 1 game last year) is also high quality… Really?

            I also love how you gloss over the defense and chalk it up to management decisions. Clearly that’s on Luck. Seattle is a very well run organization at least over the past 4 seasons and they have drafted exceptionally well. I’m not an Indy fan and as an outsider my opinion is they relied on Manning to prop up an otherwise mediocre team. They hit on a few picks like Freenwy and Mathis but I encourage you to check the last 5 years of Bill Polians drafts. Not many quality starters there.

          • atyler2011

            Dohkay,

            I am kind of disappointed in your response. I thought we
            were having a very good intelligent conversation but you came back w/
            this comment. Regarding to my last statement, that is what I value as a
            fan, not the player. I really don’t care how many MVPs or “crowning” as
            an “elite” qb or anything else. I just want to feel proud, as a fan, to
            say someday to my kids that hey OUR team was the champ that represented
            this great city. I don’t know where you live or who is your team but as
            long as I have had to suffer in losing, that is what I value most. BTW,
            my baseball team is the Cubs and that is all that you need to know. That
            is all I want. Now getting back to our discussion, I have a feeling,
            which I can be wrong, but I do feel that you can’t really support the
            argument that you are making and your comment in more of a “personal
            cheap shot” rather than an intelligence, reasonable response. In your
            response, it is a contradictory to what you are believing because in
            your mind AL is the transcendent player, which could be the case, so
            isn’t the transcendent player supposes to HELP AND MAKE your team to be a
            champ? He is the “messiah”, the franchise “savior” etc. I am not
            doubting AL’s abilities, skills, and talents and can be a great football
            player. He is a very good young qb. My vexation, as I’ve pointed it
            out, is numbers do not apply to AL. BTW, here is my final saying
            regarding to this discussion. I did an analysis responding to another
            site about this conversation. I hope you can learn something from it and
            have some intellectual honesty for future discussion regarding to this
            matter. The numbers DO NOT pan out for AL, at this moment, period. The
            funny thing is, within this discussion, I have never mentioned who is
            better or worst? So here it is.

          • Dohkay

            I’m a Lions fan. I know a thing or two about losing 😉

            I’m also rational. Stafford was drafted onto an 0-16 team. Am I shocked that he has a losing record? Of course not. Likewise AL was drafted by a 2-14 team. He actually turned them around and has 22 wins in two seasons. I’m willing to accept that he’s a better QB than Stafford though I’m hopeful new coaching will help MS.

            7-9 is much different than both of those situations, as is having a defense that gives up at least a TD less per game than MS or AL. That is a massive advantage that you’re acting like a small one.

          • atyler2011

            First, I am not quite sure following your argument. I know I started this conversation between AL and RW but what the heck MS has anything to do with this conversation. It seems that every time I pointed out something to counter your argument w/ facts then you “bring” in another point that is not RELATED to what we are talking about. Second, I have never said that AL does not get the credit for the turnaround in Indy. I have never said he was a bum. I have never said he does not get the credit he deserved. I have all along have stated that he is a very good young qb and some day he might become a great one, IN THE FUTURE, like RW. My point is the NUMBERS do not apply to him as they are to other players, period, besides the narrative of how great he is and everything else. Well, let’s break down your argument based on the “turn around” theory. Now let’s take a look at that situation. In 2010, the Colts were 10-6 before PM’s injury. The following year they were basically the same team, but of course, w/o PM so they went 2-14. I don’t know if they were purposely “tanking” to get the first pick, but they did get it. The following year, w/ AL as a rookie, they had about 50% turnover in the roster, mostly on the offensive side. I believe they still had 8 defensive starters from the previous year. So the team WAS NOT exactly the same team. But I do give him credit for that exemplary turnaround season. So that is the point that I am trying to make about building around one player approach. You can say exactly the same thing about PM, keep building around him but can never seem to win more than one championship when you’d expect more because how great he is. Third, about the defensive argument, to me I’d find it is amusing when people always say “oh their defense sucks or bad for whatever reasons” but when the number does not pan out then there is something else. Does that sound familiar? Don’t you think you are contracting yourself again w/ this point when you accused me of being one of those “people” comment from the previous post by saying their defense DOES NOT contribute to their winning way and they won strictly because of AL? Also, the organization also recognized the team ‘MIGHT NOT” do well w/ that theory in building around a transcendent player approach (i.e too many turnovers) So what did they do, they brought Pep Hamilton, former Stanford OC, to run the offense. Why you asked? First, that is how AL was very successful in college, power running game and his abilities to make plays, inside and outside of the pocket, with great play actions scheme. So they also traded for TR to make that a reality but it seemed they overestimated TR’s talents so it had not worked out so far. However, their running attack is not that bad based on the numbers (i.e. ANR/A and RA/A very comparable to Seattle) Let’s get back to the point of this whole conversation. People, including you, are saying RW and other young qbs are winning despite of their defense or something, which of course they have a lot to do with it, but when it comes to AL then the Indy defense DOES NOT make any contribution to their record because they are “bad” but the numbers do not reflect that. Common man. The name of the game is to have a higher score than your opponent at the end of each game, regardless of how many you won by. Your win record does not give you extra credit by beating the other team by 1 point or 20 points. But of course you can make the argument of how dominant your team can be if they are consistently beating the other team by a wide margin. I’d give AL a lot more credit when he was a rookie by saying that he LITERALLY carried the team based on the following numbers. In 2013, the Colts scoring average was 24.4 (14th) and they gave up 21 (9th); in 2012 scoring average 22.3 (19th) and gave up 24 (24th). But to say 2013 he was THE MAIN reason then I have to disagree. But I can make the same argument for RW as well. In 2011, Seattle scoring average was at 20.1 (23rd), in 2012 its average was 25.8 (9th) with basically the same offensive and defensive starters, record in 2011 7-9 and 2012 11-5. But of course that is no comparison to Indy turnaround. At this point, I don’t know what else to say but this will be my last response to this conversation. It is a difficult thing to have an honest and intelligent conversation w/ people that are so dogmatic in their view and do not have the intellectual honesty to accept realities. Have a great day.

          • Dohkay

            Dude – hit the return key a few times… that hurts to try to read through.

            I brought up Detroit and MS because you asked who I root for. MS is relevant to this discussion because like AL he was drafted by a bad team and like AL his defense is below average and like AL I think he’s better than RW.

            I’m done with this discussion as well, though. Cheers.

          • eYeDEF

            I actually agree with you that Carroll should trust Wilson to make a pass in that situation and he made a mistake. But seeing how he was able to redeem his mistake by rallying the overtime victory to chalk up another game winning drive, he did prove himself plenty elite because he did it when it was all on the line.

            If we’re to assume that Manning is elite because he was able to come back with an 80 yard drive to tie the game after all the mistakes he made prior to that point, then it’s inconsistent to not give Wilson the same props.

          • Dohkay

            Woah woah woah. 80 yards in a minute with no timeouts against the best defense in the past decade at least is not anywhere near a regular 80 yard drive in OT with no time constraints, much less a defense that isn’t amazing. Forgive me but OT is not clutch. Not that RW hasn’t been clutch in the past as he has 5 GWDs with less than 5 minutes to go while losing but the GWD stat is way overblown. For instance Peyton’s drive has only happened a handful of times in history. You can find plenty of GW 80 yard TD drives in OT.

          • eYeDEF

            I think you’re in the strong minority in thinking the ‘OT is not clutch’. I’m not sure how much more clutch you can get than sudden death OT. That’s a pretty bizarre statement.

          • Dohkay

            There are no time constraints and the entire playbook is open. When you are down and there is limited time remaining you have to pass and the defense knows you have to pass. That is clutch.

          • eYeDEF

            So gwd is overblown if Wilson does it eh? If you want to argue that 4qcs are more clutch by nature than gwds I can see an argument for that. My problem is with your statement here:

            If we’re to believe that Wilson truly is an elite QB than Carroll should (and apparently does) trust him to make smart decisions with the ball in key situations. He trusted him to do so and Wilson made two awful decisions that enabled Manning to get back into the game.

            Sounds like you’re downgrading him for making mistakes without taking the entire game and his overtime win in context, which is what I think athelred’s larger point was. I could point out that Fox trusted Manning to earlier on to make smart decisions and he instead made an awful decision to force a pass to Welker that resulted in the pick by Chancellor at a key moment that could have very well decided the game if he never got the ball back. Would that be fair to point out given his last minute rally?

          • Dohkay

            Neither team really ran the ball effectively but Manning had less than 40 yards with a far worse YPC than Wilson got from his backs with 80 yards. Both had INTs but Manning also threw the ball 15 more times. Will I fault him for throwing one INT on almost 50 throws?

            His 80 yard TD drive will go down as one of the best drives with the game on the line in NFL history. Scott Kacsmar has done some pretty good work on GWDs and has the full list of those drives. There are very few.

            Wilson’s drive was really no different than any other 80 yard TD drive. They could afford to run the ball without worry that the clock was running out. Is there added pressure given it’s overtime? Of course. Is it as pressure packed as his 5 GWDs with less than 5 minutes? Absolutely not. Yet it all goes down as the same thing: a GWD. That’s my issue and it has nothing to do with RW. When you narrow it down to the last 5 minutes RW is still up there in terms of GWDs.

          • eYeDEF

            Which is why I said this in my previous message:

            If you want to argue that 4qcs are more clutch by nature than gwds I can see an argument for that.

            I’m not arguing that fourth quarter comebacks are by nature going to be more clutch than gwd’s because 4qcs effectively take out ties and OTs out of the equation where clock management is a requirement. My point is that you’re criticizing Wilson for his interception when Manning’s interception came with 2:25 left in the 4th quarter. You’re not being consistent by criticizing Wilson for throwing a pick and not criticizing Manning for that unclutch throw in a much more clutch situation. You’re also resorting to dishonest rationalization when you say that he threw more passes than Wilson. So what? That means he had more opportunities to make completions, that doesn’t take away from the fact he threw an unclutch interception with 2:25 left in the 4th quarter. You’re pretending like you’re playing with a full deck, but you’re not.

          • Dohkay

            His offense had 27 yards rushing. It’s an obvious passing situation late in the game with 2.5 minutes to go. Now lets look at Wilson’s. He’s up 17-5 in the 4th quarter on his own 20. His defense has given up 3 points on 8 drives to this point in the game. He throws an INT. Which INT is worse in your opinion?

            To me, the INT that comes with 2.5 minutes remaining in a comeback attempt is forgiveable. The defense knows he needs a TD and they know it has to come via the pass due to both time restraints and the fact that Denver had 27 yards rushing through 57.5 minutes. Wilson’s INT comes in a situation where the defense can’t gear up to play the pass as they know Seattle wants to run clock. Further, it gives an offense that’s struggled to score points the ball in the redzone which sets up a TD and all of a sudden we have a one-score game.

            As for why I brought up how many passes he threw, Manning’s INT rate of under 2% for the game is elite, especially against the best defense in the NFL and especially when he gets almost nothing from his running game.

          • eYeDEF

            Which is more forgivable? Well this is really easy to determine seeing as to how the win probability for the Seahawks jumps to 99.9% after that pick as you can see from this profootballreference chart:

            http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201409210sea.htm

            notice the flatline at the top is from when Manning throws that pick, the Manning pick is more unforgivable because he’s sealing the loss with that pick 99.9% of the time. Wilson is doing no such thing up 12 points throwing an interception at the 20. Even after he throws the pick the Seahawks win probability drops from 92.5% to 90%, a trifling 2.5% and even after it leads to the score the Seahawks win probability only dips from around 90% to 85%, a whopping 5%. This shouldn’t even be controversial because unquestionably Manning’s pick did far more damage in hurting his team’s chances of winning than Wilson’s pick did. Manning spiked the Seattle win probability from 65% to 99.9%. Manning’s 2% interception rate just bolsters the case why his pick was less forgivable. He also tried to force the pass in coverage where he had an open Sanders on the other side of the field. No question it was more unforgivable than in Wilson’s situation where an interception wasn’t the end of the world. It’s totally hypocritical of you to emphasize ‘clutch’ yet criticize Wilson for a mistake in a much less ‘clutch’ situation than Manning was in from a mistake that should have decided the game all but .01% of the time.

          • Dohkay

            Easy now, you’re not being very fair to PM. When he started that drive Seattle was at 85%. If you want to use the 65% number let’s at least be clear that he was responsible for it dropping 20% in the first place. Further, large swings are inevitable at the end of a game given that, you know, it’s the end of the game. If you want to fault him the full 14% swing be my guest but at leasdt acknowledge that time has a greater bearing on WPA then a player does at that point in time.

            By the way – I’m so glad you brought up WPA. I wasn’t sure if you bought into that stat since it’s a somewhat newer statistic. It paints a grave picture to your argument about RW being key to the Seahawks success. Last year he ranked 15th among QBs in WPA. The year before he was 11th. So far this year he is ranked 14th. Lynch of course was 6th, 5th, and currently 10th among RBs. Hmm…

          • Ted Hurtz

            seriously? lets not overblow manning driving down against the prevent defense. keep in mind, Seattle sat back and only rushed 3 on that last drive. its not the “greatest drive in history” but a great example of why you should never stop pressuring the qb – especially ones that tend to make huge mistakes in the clutch while under pressure, like manning.

          • Dohkay

            Lol yeah you’re right, 80 yards in a minute with no timeouts AND the 2 pt conversion is overblown man. That stuff happens every week. Errr…

          • Ted Hurtz

            nope. it rarely happens – but to put things in perspective, the Hawks had that game in control for the majority of the time. the donks had about 5 mins of good playing time.

    • Izach

      PFF is great for stat collecting but thier “grading” system is hit or miss becuase they count all phases of the game equally despite how much that phase of the game is apart of the players skill set or how often the player took part in that phase or how difficult that phase of the game was to complete. RW has been in no way less effective or “worse” this season than in past seasons, just the plays he does make are deemed so under PFFs grading system it’s better to use as a reference than an absolute. You may see RW rely more on his WRs to make the play than on them actually being open, or maybe it’s RW hitting a less open WR down field for 10+ yards instead of the wide open TE or RB in flats for 6 yds. At the end of the day RW put them in position to win and that’s all that counts

  • atyler2011

    Totally agree on RW. The surface “looks” good but he is making a lot of bad decisions. If it were not for his receivers, he should have had about 3 to 4 interceptions already. I don’t know if this “getting” the ball out quickly approach is “working out” or not but he is not reading the defense properly like in the past. I don’t know if the pressures are getting to him that the coaching staff is telling him to get rid of the ball w/o doing the proper read. The “actual” interception occurred today, as he “confessed” during the post game, was because he got “greedy”. He knew the coverage, cover-6, and initially he didn’t want to go there but he said he saw PH was breaking away from his defender and so he tried to make the play like a rookie would. That IS NOT a 3-year qb would do at the critical moment of the game. That turnover changed the whole momentum. Also, he is not playing well in the second half at all. He needs to stop trying to make big plays when they are not there, period. I love RW but he is not progressing like what he and the coaching staff are saying. But he does come up big when needed like in the past, clutch. Very clutch.

    • Darnell

      Feel like Ryan or Lockette probably derserve the game ball.

      • atyler2011

        Agree. Our special teams were good yesterday w/ that one exception of the missed field goal. Very uncharacteristic of SH. RL was a beast on the special teams and as a receiver. He actually “scored” 14 points for us- one on the touchdown catch and one on the potential saving of the pick 6.

        • [email protected]

          You make a lot out of a pass interference. He could have shielded the defender off with his body or high pointed the ball instead. He misread the ball in the air and then had to commit a penalty to save the play.

          • willyeye

            Why worry about it? RL probably knew that Wilson would get dinged for it as a near-interception and it wouldn’t affect his grade much :) Wilson gets the blame for every pass this year, his fault or not.

          • [email protected]

            What i’m saying is that Lockette showed his lack of polish as a receiver, he took a bad angle on the ball. He should have been where Talib was instead of where he was. He should have forced Talib to go over his back to get there. Jermain Kearse would never make that mistake, he would put his body between the corner and the ball and make that catch.

          • Dohkay

            Wait you’re blaming Lockette for a fantastic play by Talib who had his eyes in the backfield waiting for RW to make that throw? Sometimes you have to tip your cap to the CB for reading the QB and making a great break on the ball. Sometimes you also have to credit the WR for making a great play and preventing the INT. Sometimes you have to find fault in RW. Just sometimes.

          • [email protected]

            You should never allow a corner to break in front of you with a clean shot at the ball. Calvin Johnson makes that catch and he makes it look easy and like a perfect throw.

          • Dohkay

            Talib didn’t run a route. He read the play and jumped it. I’m not sure What Lockette is supposed to do there… he’s going in the opposite direction.

          • [email protected]

            He should have been where Talib was, he misread the ball in the air. If he gets there first Talib has to go through him to get to the ball.

          • [email protected]

            This is what makes Jermain Kearse an NFL receiver, he can read the ball in the air and if he needs to he slows down and keeps his body between the defender and the ball and makes the catch.

    • Harold

      I’m no Wilson apologist, but to say he is “making a lot of bad decisions” is nonsense. His receivers, quite obviously, cannot get separation, leaving him with nowhere to go with the ball. They wanted to take numerous shots down field but were thwarted on all but the Lockette toss. That’s not Wilson’s fault.

      • atyler2011

        Using your logic, then he is digressing in trying to make a play like a rookie would do. This is his third year and he should have known it better not to do those kinds of thing. That is what made him specially good from previous years. He DOES NOT make mental errors or bad judgment. Actually, most of his throws are not deep route w/ that one exception. So far we don’t have any passes over 40 yards. We were one of the leaders in that category last year. But it is still early.

        • Harold

          He threw ONE interception. Even the best QBs make a poor decision now and then. What are we talking about here? I’m supposed to be exercised that he threw his first INT of the season? This is absurd.

          • atyler2011

            I never said good or great qbs do not make mistakes. All I am saying is that RW has made a lot of bad decisions this early of the season. The guy DOES NOT make mental errors (read my post to Willyeye so you can understand what I am trying to say) and have bad judgment on his decision-making process. Physical error, yes, but not mental error. That is what separates him from a lot of the younger qbs- his head and football IQ. He might not be the greatest athlete but he is one of the most intelligence and cerebral young qbs in today’s game. In a few years, if he continues in this trajectory, I’d consider him to be at the level of PM. We all love RW but let be honest and open about his current plays.

      • [email protected]

        There is no such thing as a Wilson apologist. He’s actually very good. You can only be an apologist for a fraud.

    • willyeye

      Understand about the near-interceptions, but why are all the guys with 3 and 4 REAL interceptions still able to make positive grades? Do you know if Wilson is the only guy in the NFL to throw a near-interception so far this year? I kind of doubt it.

      • atyler2011

        Willyeye,

        I don’t know the mechanics of their gradings but I don’t think they have a “hidden agenda’ against RW. Did you know they gave him one of the highest cumulative grades for all starting qbs in the first two years of their career? The grading is not just based on interception, as the outcome alone, but also the process for that particular event like if he makes the proper read, making the right protection call, right audible etc. I believe they have the all-22 tape so I guess they can see the play as it develops from all angles. We can only see one angle and don’t see everything that is happening besides which angle the TV decided to focus on. For example, yesterday game w/ that “actual” interception, RW “confessed”, during the post-game interview, that he made a bad decision in making that pass. He did the proper pre-snap read and identified it as a cover-6 and it was a bad choice for the route tree (for PH) in that particular play. Initially, he didn’t want to go there because he knew it would be a bad choice but when he saw PH breaking away from his defender, he wanted to take a chance to make a play like a rookie qb would do. This is his 3rd year and he should have known it better not to go against the proper decision-making process, instead of trying to make a big play just takes what the defense gives you. That was the momentum changer w/ that turnover. The game should not have been that closed, period. Actually, so far he is pretty “average”, in the second half (i.e. ratings first half vs. second half- 147.6 vs. 79.6) In previous years, the numbers were a little more consistent like in the high 90s. But it is still early. That is one example. He did the same thing w/ two bad reads and forced throws in the first game. I didn’t see the SD game so I can’t comment on it. Interception can happen in a lot of ways but I guess they really “dink” you if you made a mental error, instead of a physical one like deflection or tip, which makes sense in the context that he is making the proper play but there are other factors that he can’t control for the outcome. But a qb surely can control how to do the proper pre-snap, post-snap, and a decision in making the play. Don’t get too “hot” about it. We all love RW and I really don’t care about all this stuff. I only use them to make a point in a discussion. The bottom line is he is a winner, a clutch player, and a great ambassador for the game. The NFL, with its image problem lately, should develop some sources of a PR campaign to promote players like RW to show the public the league is full of good players and people. The majority of them are. RW is a great example of how a player can defy all odds in becoming one of the great qbs in this league. People, from the national media, are starting to take notice (i.e. Tony Dungy compared him to the young Joe Montana, Peter King and Michael Silver are “raving” about the guy and PK already “crowned” him as one of the current elite qbs, which I don’t agree. He is only in his third year so let’s slow down a bit here) The narrative is beginning to change at the mainstream level. But we, as the 12s, know this all along so there is no surprise here. The bottom line is the guy just knows how to win and that is all I care about. In the way, I am very selfish in caring just if the team wins or loses, not about individual statistics; those are personal accomplishments and they are for him or her, not for us as fans. We want championships. I’d take Troy Aikman and Terry Bradshaw anytime over Peyton Manning if a team can hoist all those Lombardi trophies. Isn’t that what they play for and what we, as fans, really want as well?

        • willyeye

          Thank you for the response. It’s not that I really care about how RW is ranked anyway. I just know that Wilson has faced 3- 2013 playoff teams, and hasn’t done that terribly bad. His passer rating currently ranks him #1 in the NFL. I am aware of RW’s PFF grades for the last couple of years, and that’s one of the things that confused me…it made me wonder if the person doing the grading somehow became biased against RW. I do think that someone might be being a bit hard on him. It seems to me that a lot of QB’s in the top 22 aren’t having that great of a season either. Maybe I felt like RW got some pretty big dings for just a couple of passes out of 25 each game. But it’s all good.

  • brent

    russell wilson also missed percy harvin wide open for a post td,percy had his man beat by 5 yds streaking toward the middle of the field,seattles offense would be better served if they used percy correctly as a wr rather then gadget player imo

    • willyeye

      There is one advantage to using Percy in at least some gimmick type plays…it sets him up to be used as a decoy. But I agrre they should use him a bit more as a regular WR…hasn’t he always been like a slot receiver though?

  • jim

    Actually, on the interception, Talib made a great read, left his man to double the intended receiver and tipped the ball. On the replay, it was clear that Wilson didn’t look to his left side but stared down his target on his right side, allowing Talib to read his eyes and make a great play. It was Manning who threw his interception directly at Chancellor.

  • flyerhawk

    According to your ratings, Wilson is the 29th rated passer in the NFL despite being the highest rated QB in the NF according to traditional measurements.

  • Nick

    Does PFF publish its methodology? They seem to do good work, but I just don’t understand their Wilson grade. Without knowing exactly how they grade I don’t want to say their grading sucks. But I really do not get how Wilson has had such negative grades for all three games. Traditional stats are great, passer rating great, QBR is fine, FO stats are fine. What are they seeing/measuring that no one else is?

    • [email protected]

      They want to pretend that their grades are cut and dry but there is a LOT of gray area. I give them props for actually watching every single play but its still just opinion. They rated Antoine Winfield 2 years ago as the highest rated corner in football, the next year he did not even make a NFL roster.

  • Chris

    So many Seahawks crybabies in here whining about their game managing QB not grading well.

    Can’t you just enjoy your win instead of flooding the chat with the same whiney posts about Wilson? We get it, Seattle fans, you think Wilson is the best thing since sliced Redskins secondary just shut up already.

    • flyerhawk

      Very constructive comment. You realize this is the Broncos-Seahwaks game thread, right?

      • Chris

        Yes, but there were also about 49 other players on the field yesterday. Surely there are other things to discuss besides how average Wilson is as a QB?

        • atyler2011

          Do we need to go back there again, Chris? I believe you already have had your “edification” from me on that particular discussion. But we all need “an outsider” perspective to keep the conversation honest. Thank you for that. The 12s needs to chill and accepts the facts.

          • [email protected]

            Facts? So PFF graded Wilson low for this game. That is a fact. Its not a fact that he played poorly, that is an opinion. They graded Earl Thomas poorly up until this season. Were they right?

          • atyler2011

            Are you back again for another beating about facts, numbers, and statistics? Grow up, man. Seriously, how old are you? So is it a fact that I did agree w/ the grade that PFF gave him and you think it is an opinion? I don’t know anything about ET so can’t comment on that.

          • [email protected]

            You have a serious delusion that you win every debate. Seek professional psychiatric help. Just read this topic anybody can see that you are a complete tool.

          • atyler2011

            Talking about calling people names. I guess you did not “proof read” your own comment before hitting that submit button. Personally attacks? Really? So come back w/ more insulting remarks to make your case, please. It makes you feel good, doesn’t it? Seriously, how old are you? It seems like every time we are having a discussion, you tend to “evade” the questions and issues and come back w/ a distraction to make your case. Very highly persuasive tactics. Keep it up. Once again, how old are you?

          • [email protected]

            Ok, i’ll answer your questions. Yes, it is a fact that you agreed with the grade. I would say that its not a fact that i think the PFF grade is an opinion, thats very hard to prove. It would be a fact that i said i thought it was an opinion. It is a fact that the PFF grades are an opinion. Do you see the difference between a fact and an opinion now?

          • atyler2011

            Good boy. So how old are you? Just kidding. Common, man. We’re both the 12s so don’t take things so seriously. O.K. you win if that makes you happy.

          • 49ers>Sea-chokes

            You are acting like a bitch fan girl

  • Harold

    I’d like to know the methodology. Ramirez is -3? If *three* hurries on 51 pass plays is a negative, well, wow.

  • Gump

    Russell Wison = Alex “Captain Checkdown” Smith.

    Same QB, if the Seahawks defense collapse to injuries, they are the Chiefs.

    • [email protected]

      You = troll.

  • willyeye

    I’m relatively new to PFF and I have a few questions. I felt that Wilson’s grades in the first 3 games have been somewhat low considering his actual numbers, as compared to other QB’s with better PFF numbers but far worse stats. I’ve been reading some of the explanations on those grades, and you have me curious. Is Wilson the only NFL QB who has had his receivers save him from a few interceptions? Is Wilson the only NFL QB who has thrown into some pretty tight coverage (I could have sworn I’ve seen some other QB’s make some throws into extremely tight coverage)? There are a couple of QB’s with positive grades who have actually thrown a few interceptions more than Wilson…did they also have interceptions saved by their receivers? How subjective is the analysis that decides whether Wilson made a more dangerous throw than other QB’s? I was also curious if QB’s get credit or points for their PFF passer rating and for PFF accuracy %, or do those not play into it whatsoever? It seems a bit confusing that Wilson could be ranked #6 for his PFF passer rating and #4 for his PFF accuracy %, and considering his NFL passer rating is currently #1 in the league, why would his PFF grades make him ranked #29 overall? I’m not saying that his grades should necessarily be as good or better than they were last season, but I don’t personally see that this year’s grades for his 3 games should be that low as compared to performances of some other QB’s who had terrible games, but received much better grades. Why would this be?

    Also, do you take into account at all the strength of the teams that a QB has faced? For example, if a QB was to play two games against the Jaguars and another QB plays two games against the Phins, would their grades be affected by the strength of the defense? Also, how much does passing yardage affect a QB’s grade? If it is a major factor in grading, why does it seem like it made no difference in Wilson’s grades last year? And then if facing the same defense, in the case of Wilson vs. Denver as compared to Luck vs. Denver, why would a seemingly better game by Wilson grade out at -2.2 passing, while Luck graded out at +0.2 passing? What was the most influential criteria used for grading these two games that made Wilson’s grade so much lower? If you would feel more comfortable, you can email the reply to me. Thank you.

    • Whizzer Wilkins

      too many questions dude

    • [email protected]

      Strength of opposition is not taken into account as far as i know.

  • Shawn Blake

    I think I will take the word of the players, including the opposing team and coaches, over this “grading” system of PFF. I am skeptical of most stats, because they rarely give a complete picture, but when it comes to grading of players by an outsider, I am even more skeptical. I think Mike Zimmer makes a valid point. How does someone outside of the operations of the team, know the players’ assignments or what they are coached to do in certain situations. Not to mention, the subjectivity involved. If this game was graded by another person, I am sure the grades would vary greatly.

    • Dohkay

      Completely agree. Like when the players ranked Jacoby Jones as the 88th best player ahead of Percy (ranked 90th) in 2013. Great call. Also when they ranked Ed Reed (then with the Texans and FAR past his prime) 32 spots ahead of their 50th ranked player, Earl Thomas. How about when they ranked Charles Tillman and Patrick Peterson ahead of Richard Sherman. That’s good stuff too, right?

      • [email protected]

        Anybody who thinks that PFF grades are gospel hasnt been on the site long or hasnt been paying attention. They will rank players completely differently than their own grades, even PFF knows the grades are unreliable..

        • Dohkay

          I agree. They had Wilson ranked WAY too high last season. :)

          • [email protected]

            Actually their ratings were decent, in part because they largely ignored their own player ratings.

        • Dohkay

          By the way, that was based on polling of NFL players, not PFF. Read OP’s comment before you try and counter something I said at least.

          • [email protected]

            That the NFL players are bad at rating does not mean that PFF is good at it.

          • Dohkay

            Wasn’t my argument. Simply showing that listening to players for insight is garbage.

  • Eazy

    Von Miller isn’t a 4-3 OLB…

  • Jeff

    While we’re talking about QB’s being bailed out of INTs, there were I believe 3 passes from Peyton, at least 2, that were trapped or otherwise not secured inches within being picked off by Seattle on Sunday. Thomas was bailed out of a fumble by about a half step to complete a football move.

    The throw Wilson threw to Harvin with 3 defenders in the immediate area was a bad decision, no doubt, I suspect prompted by the offense’s inability to move the ball in the second half and trying to force something. But with the lead and Jon Ryan having the game of his life, no need to take chances.

  • CommonSenseBronco

    How about that comeback by the Broncos at the end? Sorry, just thought something about Denver should be mentioned amid all these Seahawk associated posts. 😛