QBs in Focus: Schaub & Keenum

Putting the highs and lows on display, Steve Palazzolo dives deep into the 2013 performances by Matt Schaub and Case Keenum.

| 2 years ago
qb-month-schuab-keenum

QBs in Focus: Schaub & Keenum


qb-month-schuab-keenumThough we certainly miss football during the offseason, it’s always a good time to take a step back and analyze our plethora of data.

We’re often so busy grading and collecting data during the season that we’re unable to put a lot of the information to good use. With that said, we’ve decided to declare June as “QB Month” as we break down NFL quarterbacks every which way.

We’re going to examine quarterbacks from a number of situations before looking at each of them individually. The grades and numbers should reveal each quarterback’s strengths and weaknesses from the 2013 season.

As we go through this series, it’s important to understand the relationship between QB Rating (NFL’s version) and PFF Grade.

While QB Rating is obviously supposed to be a QB statistic, it’s actually a better gauge of what the entire offense did in a given situation. This is the type of information that is actually extremely valuable to our NFL team customers as their game planning efforts must go towards stopping an entire passing offense, not just the quarterback.

If the quarterback throws an easy dump off pass to the RB who then weaves through the defense for the touchdown, it’s certainly not a great indicator of quarterbacking skill as it is the running back and defense accounting for the majority of the work on the play. Of course the QB Rating will look quite shiny in that situation.

On the other hand, PFF Grade is a good indicator of how well the quarterback actually performed in a given situation. Whether they throw an accurate pass that was dropped, or perhaps an inaccurate one that should have been intercepted and the defense dropped, the PFF grade will account for those situations with a positive and a negative grade respectively while QB Rating will simply reflect the 0-for-1 passing.

It’s important to distinguish between QB Rating and PFF grade, though there’s a good chance they’ll match up in most situations.

After taking a look at the entire league in various situations, it’s time to break down each quarterback individually.

Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub (2)

Matt Schaub (3)

All categories with a * are normalized so that the league average is 0.0.

Positives

•  Graded at +3.6 on 3rd-and-medium.
•  Graded at +2.3 on passes thrown in the 11-to-20-yard range.
•  At his best on drop-backs lasting 2.6 to 3.0 seconds.
•  Graded at +4.6 on in routes and +3.3 on corner routes.

Negatives

•  Third-lowest grade on first down (-13.2).
•  Graded at -4.2 on 3rd-and-10+.
•  Ranked last on passes thrown in 1-to-10-yard range (-15.0).
•  Graded at -4.6 on passes thrown in between the numbers.
•  Second-lowest grade against pressure (-19.3).
•  Second-lowest grade when blitzed (-11.1).
•  Graded at -6.6 on drop-backs lasting 2.1-to-2.5 seconds and -6.3 on drop-backs lasting at least 3.6 seconds.
•  Graded at -6.4 when throwing to the slot (by alignment).
•  Graded at 2.4 on slants and -5.8 on go routes.

Tendencies

•  40.2% of drop-backs came from under center; second-highest in the league.
•  Threw 53.6% of passes in the 1-to-10-yard range (league average 49.3%), but only 25.2% of passes in the 5-10-yard range (league average 26.9%).
•  Faced pressure on 41.8% of drop-backs; sixth-highest in the league.
•  35.2% of drop-backs went at least 9 yards; ninth-highest in the league.
•  Only 18.3% of drop-backs lasted two seconds or less; fifth-lowest in the league.
•  Threw 24.1% of passes to tight ends (seventh-highest) including 16.1% of passes to inline tight ends (third-highest).
•  Only 8.8% of attempts were go routes; well below the league average of 11.5%.

 

Case Keenum

Case Keenum

Case Keenum (2)

Case Keenum (3)

All categories with a * are normalized so that the league average is 0.0.

Positives

•  Graded at +3.1 when lined up under center.
•  Eighth-highest grade on passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air (+6.3).
•  Ranked fourth with a +4.8 grade on passes thrown at least 30 yards in the air.
•  Showed well on drop-backs in the 4-to-6-yard range (+2.0).
•  Graded at +5.7 when throwing to slot wide receivers.
•  Sixth-highest grade on go routes (+8.2).

Negatives

•  Struggled on second down (-4.8).
•  Graded at -7.7 on drop-backs from the shotgun or pistol.
•  Third-lowest grade on passes thrown in the 1-10-yard range (-7.8).
•  Graded at -7.2 when pressured.
•  Graded at -5.8 on drop-backs of nine yards or more.
•  Struggled on passes lasting 3.1 to 3.5 seconds (-4.0).
•  Fourth-lowest grade on out routes (-4.4).

Tendencies

•  Threw 32.0% of passes in the 5-10-yard range; fourth-highest in the league.
•  Faced pressure on 45.5% of drop-backs; second-highest in the league.
•  Threw 50.9% of passes outside the numbers; above the league average of 46.7%.
•  68.8% of drop-backs lasted at least 2.5 seconds; well above the league average of 49.0%.
•  Threw 24.6% of passes to tight ends, including a league-high 20.2% of attempts to inline tight ends.
•  15.8% of attempts were crossing routes; second-highest in the league.

 

For the entire set of “Quarterbacks in Focus” posts, click here.

 

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| Senior Analyst

Steve is a senior analyst at Pro Football Focus. His work has been featured on ESPN Insider, NBC Sports, and 120 Sports.

  • chickenhed

    I still think Keenum did a good enough job to get another chance to start. He excited the team, gave them passion, and threw an excellent deep ball. If he was a higher draft pick Houston would absolutely think he did enough to earn the chance to start. However, because he was an UFA, he has to prove it all over again.

    As a side note I quite like Fitzpatick, honestly, but he is better suited as an excellent backup. It was a good pickup by Houston; he will be a stabilizing factor. But I would give Keenum the chance first, then go to Fitzpatrick, rather than the other way around.