Though we certainly miss football during the offseason, it’s always a good time to take a step back and analyze our plethora of data.
We’re often so busy grading and collecting data during the season that we’re unable to put a lot of the information to good use. With that said, we’ve decided to declare June as “QB Month” as we break down NFL quarterbacks every which way.
We’re going to examine quarterbacks from a number of situations before looking at each of them individually. The grades and numbers should reveal each quarterback’s strengths and weaknesses from the 2013 season.
As we go through this series, it’s important to understand the relationship between QB Rating (NFL’s version) and PFF Grade.
While QB Rating is obviously supposed to be a QB statistic, it’s actually a better gauge of what the entire offense did in a given situation. This is the type of information that is actually extremely valuable to our NFL team customers as their game planning efforts must go towards stopping an entire passing offense, not just the quarterback.
If the quarterback throws an easy dump off pass to the RB who then weaves through the defense for the touchdown, it’s certainly not a great indicator of quarterbacking skill as it is the running back and defense accounting for the majority of the work on the play. Of course the QB Rating will look quite shiny in that situation.
On the other hand, PFF Grade is a good indicator of how well the quarterback actually performed in a given situation. Whether they throw an accurate pass that was dropped, or perhaps an inaccurate one that should have been intercepted and the defense dropped, the PFF grade will account for those situations with a positive and a negative grade respectively while QB Rating will simply reflect the 0-for-1 passing.
It’s important to distinguish between QB Rating and PFF grade, though there’s a good chance they’ll match up in most situations.
After taking a look at the entire league in various situations, it’s time to break down each quarterback individually.
Jake Locker
All categories with a * are normalized so that the league average is 0.0.
Positives
• Graded at +8.0 on third down.
• Showed well on passes thrown in the 1-to-10-yard range (+3.9).
• Graded at +4.6 on passes thrown outside the numbers to the left.
• Graded at +7.1 on drop-backs in the 7-to-8-yard range.
• Among the league’s best on drop-backs lasting at least 3.6 seconds (+6.0).
• Graded at +3.7 on out routes and +2.9 on comebacks.
Negatives
• Graded at -5.2 on second down, including -4.5 on 2nd-and-long.
• Graded at -3.6 on passes thrown in the 11-to-20-yard range and -5.0 on all passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air.
• Graded at -2.4 on passes in between the numbers.
• Struggled on drop-backs lasting 3.1 to 3.5 seconds (-3.4).
• Graded at -1.6 on slants and -2.7 on corner routes.
Tendencies
• Threw 32.0% of passes in the 5-to-10-yard range; fifth-highest in the league.
• Threw 17.1% of passes at least 20 yards in the air; fourth-highest in the league.
• 43.7% of drop-backs went at least nine yards; second-highest in the league.
• Used play action only 14.1% of the time; sixth-lowest in the league.
• Threw to outside wide receivers 54.3% of the time (league average 40.2%).
• Threw only 15.4% of passes to tight ends; fourth-lowest in the league. Only threw 13.7% of attempts to running backs; third-lowest in the league.
• Threw the highest percentage of out routes (16.6%) and fourth highest percentage of hitches (18.3%).
Ryan Fitzpatrick
All categories with a * are normalized so that the league average is 0.0.
Positives
• Graded at +3.6 on third down.
• Graded at +3.2 on passes thrown outside the numbers to the left and +4.5 on passes thrown in between the numbers.
• Showed well against the blitz (+3.8).
• Graded at +8.9 on 7-to-8-yard drop-backs.
• At his best on drop-backs lasting 2.6 to 3.0 seconds (+5.8).
• Graded at +3.3 on go routes.
Negatives
• Graded at -2.6 on passes thrown in the 11-to-20-yard range.
• Struggled on passes thrown outside the numbers to the right (-1.2).
• Graded at -2.2 on drop-backs in the 4-to-6-yard range and -3.4 on drop-backs of at least nine yards.
• Graded at -2.6 on drop-backs lasting two seconds or less and -5.6 on drop-backs lasting 3.1 to 3.5 seconds.
• Graded at -1.5 on hitches.
Tendencies
• Threw 30.1% of passes in the 5-10-yard range; above the league average of 26.9%.
• 59.9% of attempts went between the numbers; seventh-highest in the league.
• Only 9.5% of drop-backs in the 4-6-yard range; fifth-lowest in the league.
• Used play action only 13.3% of the time; tied for third-lowest in the league.
• 32.6% of drop-backs lasted 2.1 to 2.5 seconds to lead the league.
• Threw 38.3% of passes to wide receivers lined up on the outside (league average 43.2%); well below Locker’s percentage of passes thrown to outside receivers.
• Threw 28.3% of passes to slot wide receivers; well above the league average of 19.7%.
• Threw only 14.6% of passes to running backs; fifth-lowest in the league.
• 15.2% of attempts were crossing routes; third-highest in the league.
For the entire set of “Quarterbacks in Focus” posts, click here.
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