Why Derek Carr could be the next great NFL QB

Sam Monson explains why the No. 92 player in his best 101—Raiders QB Derek Carr—could be the next great NFL quarterback.

| 6 months ago
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Why Derek Carr could be the next great NFL QB


Everybody is always searching for the next great NFL quarterback, because having one papers over so many other cracks on the roster and makes you a perennial contender in one move. The Oakland Raiders may have found the next one in Derek Carr.

For years, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were the pinnacle of the game. Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers followed in the mid-2000s, and now Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are trying to force themselves into that conversation over a sustained period of time, but Derek Carr’s career trajectory suggests he could leap into it in 2016 and beyond, too.

We can start this by saying that I don’t think Derek Carr was very good in his rookie season, and certainly wasn’t the best rookie passer that year (Teddy Bridgewater was). While his raw numbers looked okay, the play-by-play grading never matched them, and he never showed the kind of improvement over the season that Bridgewater did.

If you had been offering odds on a QB from that year that would go on to great things, I’d have taken Bridgewater, not Carr. 2015 told a completely different story, however.

Bridgewater wasn’t bad last in 2015, but didn’t continue the form from the tail end of the 2014 season, and if anything, regressed a little. Meanwhile, Carr’s improvement was massive. Every aspect of his game took a step up, and this was visible both on tape and in the numbers. He ended the season as the eighth-highest-graded QB in the league when looking at passing alone, and the 10th-highest overall.

After being one of the lowest-graded QBs in the league, Carr ended the following season as top-10 signal-caller.

A similar leap going into his third season would put him among the league’s best quarterbacks instantly, but that may not be realistic. Instead, let’s look at just where his play in 2015 places him. His PFF passing grade of 82.5 puts him between an Andy Dalton playing the best football of his career (84.1) and Matt Ryan (81.5).

Even a moderate improvement in performance would put him into the Drew Brees-Russell Wilson area, and the Raiders are surrounding him with the kind of help to facilitate that. Amari Cooper came on board last season and was an immediate impact player, despite the staggering number of drops (a league-leading 18). The partnership that could develop between those two has limitless potential, but the Raiders have also addressed the offensive line, making Carr’s life easier in both important areas—weapons and protection.

Kelechi Oseleme was one of the marquee free agents available this offseason, and he ended up a Raider. With the four holdovers on the line from 2014, that gives Oakland arguably the best line in the league. If they’re not quite there (Dallas obviously being the other contender), they belong rightfully in the discussion, and that’s as much as any young passer can ask for. In Carr’s rookie season, the Raiders had just two O-linemen grade positively (LT Donald Penn and a rookie LG Gabe Jackson).

The Raiders are giving Carr all the help they can to catalyze his development into an elite quarterback, which is more than plenty of other promising passers ever get.

But what exactly made him so good in 2015, and what hints indicate that he can reach that elite level going forward? PFF graded only 96 passes last season at +1.5 or +2, the highest two grades we give for individual plays, and Carr had six of them. In terms of percentage of his passes that earned those grades, he trailed only Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tyrod Taylor over the season.

This pass to Cooper (initially ruled incomplete, but correctly overturned on review) was one of the best throws of the season from anybody:

CARR Cooper TD

Carr was dealing with mounting pressure in his face and still dropped the ball into a bucket at the back of the end zone where only his man could get it.

That’s the theme of Carr’s best passes—not only does he hit the right guy, but his ball location ensures the best result on the play, too. Here is another example coming against Pittsburgh.

Carr reads the coverage pre-snap and knows he has an open man here, because he has a slot receiver singled up on a linebacker. Lawrence Timmons does a pretty good job trying to hang with it, but it’s a pretty lost cause if the ball is thrown well, which it is.

Carr Steelers TD

Anywhere over the top of Timmons makes this a big play, but a look from the end-zone cam how perfectly the pass splits the two high safeties. If the ball had been to either side of that gap, one of them probably gets over to save the touchdown and make the Raiders earn the points with at least another play. Carr splits them so perfectly that they can’t quite come across to make the play before the score.

No QB is perfect, and Carr still makes too many mistakes. Only seven passers threw more than the 13 interceptions he notched last season, and when looking at adjusted completion percentage, there were 18 quarterbacks more accurate than Carr. He is improving, but there are still areas to work on.

What is encouraging, though, is that the top end of his game is so good already, and the rest has improved incredibly over just one year. Derek Carr may be on his way to being the next great QB in the NFL, and it’s why he makes the list of the 101 best players in the game right now.

| Senior Analyst

Sam is a Senior Analyst at Pro Football Focus, as well as a contributor to ESPN.

  • McGeorge

    >>Even a moderate improvement in performance would put him into the Drew Brees-Russell Wilson area,

    So if he makes not just a moderate improvement but a real step forward (or has back to back seasons of moderate improvements), he’ll be as good as Aaron Rodgers / Tom Brady?

    • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

      That statement in PFFs writeup was remarkable. Remarkably silly, that is. Carr is nowhere near Brees/Wilson at this point in time. He has a chance to be in the Flacco/Ryan area with moderate improvement.

      • Eletania

        If you aren’t aware how good Carr was last season, that’s fine, but you’re the one that looks silly.

        • McGeorge

          I guess I must be silly because I wasn’t aware that Carr is almost a great QB. I can wait for a ‘modest improvement’ or two and he’ll be an all time great QB, just in time with Peyton (and not too much later Brady and Brees) gone.

          • ericthemadman

            Yea, you are silly…at best you don’t pay attention to the NFL!!

          • McGeorge

            You go on believing that Carr is elite.
            I must not follow the NFL that you do.
            I follow the National Football League, not the soccer league that you watch (football in the UK = soccer in the US)

          • ericthemadman

            Are you mentally challenged? I’ve never stated anything about Carr being elite? I don’t watch UK football!! Stick to who you’re voting for on American Idol….probably easier for you to follow and comprehend…..

      • MikeB59

        Carr’s QBR was slightly ahead of Ryan and way ahead of Flacco last season.

        • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

          Oh, come now. Carr had a pretty good year in 2015, almost as good as Jay Cutler’s. But one year does not a career make. Carr could be a yoyo QB just like Cutler, up one year and down the next. Anyone who thinks they know Carr’s career trajectory is absolutely asinine. But what we do know is that Carr is nowhere close to Wilson. Carr’s career passer rating of 83.7 is almost 20 points below Wilson’s career passer rating of 101.8. Carr’s good year in 2015 is below Wilson’s worst year. And not only is Wilson the better passer, but he is also immensely more dangerous than Carr with his legs. Wilson is clearly in the upper echelon of NFL QBs, and Brees still belongs among the elite. Carr isn’t close to either.

          The comparison to Ryan and Flacco is much more appropriate. Ryan has a career passer rating of 90.9 and Flacco a career passer rating of 84.7. Both had down years in 2015 for a variety of reasons and Carr might have looked better on the season than them. But Carr needs to sustain his level of play to be ahead of those two. We haven’t seen that over an extended period. That is why they are who he is chasing. Not Wilson and Brees!

          • Pridenpoise

            You’re an idiot, he just completed his second season, with a new HC and OC, if Carr had the weapons around him that Wilson had his numbers would be every bit as good as Wilsons. Do yourself a favour, stfu you appear to be a moron.

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            What weapons for Wilson? You mean the RB who had a career 3.99 YPC average from 2007-2011, good for 36th in the NFL among RBs with at least 500 carries over those 5 years? The RB that led the Seahawks to a team YPC average that ranked 23rd in the NFL in 2011? That weapon? I know the popular meme is that Lynch made life easier for Wilson. The truth is that Wilson made life easier for Lynch. Defenses had to slow their attack of the RB or risk running themselves out of a play on Wilson around the end. In addition, DLines had to set up with wider spacings to protect the edge against a Wilson keeper. That means more gaps for Lynch to run through. If you don’t believe me, then how about taking the word of Tom Cable who said that Lynch needed Wilson in order to be successful.

            Or, are you talking about the 5 UDFA receivers that Wilson throws to year in and year out? The studs that no one else wanted because they were too slow, too small, had the dropsies in college, and/or weren’t known as good route runners? Are those the weapons you are talking about?

            If you are talking about Lynch and Wilson’s UDFA receivers, you must be talking about Wilson’s O-Line. The O-Line that is the #1 turnstyle in the NFL.

            Sorry, guy. Wilson hasn’t had great tools around him on offense. He has been supported with a great defense. But that great defense eats up salary cap at the expense of the offense. Wilson makes a below average RB look great and makes pedestrian receivers look really good. And beginning last year, he even started to make a terrible O-Line look OK.

          • John Holmes

            How does a QB “make a terrible O-Line look Ok?” Are you trying to say that he gets rid of the ball so fast that the OL doesn’t have time to get mauled by defenders on the way to the QB? Does he audible to different plays prior to the snap because he knows the defense has a favorable matchup pre-snap? I’m really trying to understand your logic here, but it’s clear that you’ll stretch the truth a bit just so your man crush comes off looking perfect in every way. Generally speaking, it’s the OC’s job to make a porous OL look “Ok” as you put it, but keep telling yourself Wilson is the only one worthy of praise when the O does well.

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            Yes, both of those are part of Wilson’s maturation at QB. And yes, both of those are pillars of a QB helping out his O-Line. That is what the best pocket passers do.

            If there has been one criticism of Wilson during his first four years in the NFL, it is that he too often holds onto the ball too long. But Wilson showed last year, and especially the last half of the season, that he could make the pre-snap reads to deliver the ball to a receiver in space quickly. He didn’t need to rely on his legs to buy time for receivers to come open. The Seahawks O-line looked much better in the second half than in the first half of the season.

            Now, I won’t credit Wilson as the only reason for improvement there. There were multiple factors at play. Two big factors were changing personnel on the O-Line (particularly inserting Patrick Lewis at center) and going to spread formations with an empty backfield giving Wilson more receivers to choose from. But with an empty backfield, it is particularly critical for the QB to deliver the ball quickly because there is no RB to pick up missed blocks by the O-Line. So, when Wilson was putting up absolutely historic numbers with five 3+ TD games with no picks, he had to make the pre-snap reads of who would be open and then deliver the ball quickly. It should be noted that this was a radical change in Seahawk offensive philosophy – to conform to what most teams employ on a regular basis. Wilson absolutely hit it with his play with those empty backfield formations. So, you have to give Wilson the credit he is due for operating efficiently in the spread formation offense. And when I say efficiently, I mean like no one has played the game – ever!

          • geek

            nice

          • Raideriffic

            blah blah, Go Raiders… best O-Line in the League, more talent on defense, Vegas, YEAH!

          • ericthemadman

            Just stick to watching Dancing with the Stars & you’ll be fine Dale….bahahahahahahahaha!!!

          • Pridenpoise

            You’re blinded by your bias. Go ride Wilsons dick on the Seahags post douche. If Wilsons so great why don’t they have two Super Bowl wins asshat???????

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            Uhm, because Jermaine Kearse didn’t do his job off the ball. The Seahawks used a stacked formation on the right side, with Kearse on the line and Lockette stacked behind him. The Patriots countered with a stacked formation with Browner on the line and Butler behind. Kearse was supposed to push Browner off the LOS creating a legal pick. But he just didn’t do a thing to move Browner, and Butler had a free path to the ball.

            But that slant is a timing play where Wilson doesn’t have time to survey the field post-snap. He just hits his back foot and throws to a spot where his receiver was supposed to be the only one in the area. Wilson delivered the ball on Lockette’s hands. The throw was good. It could have been back on Lockette’s shoulder a little more so that Lockette’s body prevents any path to the ball by Butler. But back on the shoulder makes it a more difficult catch for Lockette. Since Kearse was supposed to take out Butler, there is no need to make a throw that is difficult for your receiver to make.

            One could back up and say that the coaches futzed it with the personnel that they put on the field. Browner is a huge DB. The Seahawks should have put a big body out there to move Browner. A better personnel assignment would have been to put Chris Matthews on the line opposite Browner. Kearse has better hands than Lockette. That would have been a much better pairing on that play and almost certainly have gotten the Seahawks the win. But it’s all Wilson’s fault, right?

          • Raideriffic

            Blah, Blah, Blah, out-coached and out QB’d LOST..

          • Raideriffic

            god send yr resume, Pete won’t be there much longer and they will need a genius like you to keep it going, Not.

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            BTW, I didn’t think this was a Raider’s blog site. Sure, it was mostly about something that appeals to Raider’s fans – that dream of restored glory, being relevant again like the Seahawks have been every year that Wilson has played. But when Monson suggested that just a modest improvement in Carr’s game would have him with Wilson and Brees, that opens this up as a Seahawks thread. Monson’s statement is ludicrous – and that is exactly why Raider’s fans are drawn to it like catnip!

            BTW point #2, how can you use a nick Pridenpoise and use such garbage language. There is absolutely nothing there in the way of poise – and nothing to take pride in!!!!

          • Raideriffic

            Hawks never been about Wilson for Winning the SB, it was the “D”.
            Wilson tried to be more, last year, OOOPS.

          • ericthemadman

            LMAO…true!!

          • Jesse Gardner

            BTW, Carr was the 5th rated QB in Passer rating through the first 9 weeks oft the season (before his #1 WR injured his foot along with half his Oline getting injured at the same time), lead the league in 4th quarter comebacks (still leads the league from the start of the ’14 season til now), lead the league in 25+ yard TDs (’15 season), plus the most important stat which was throwing more TDs then any other QB in NFL history through his first 2 seasons, save for Dan Marino. The Record Reads ‘1st Marino, ‘2nd Derek Carr, tied for 3rd is Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. So even though Carr’s team only managed a 10-22 record his first 2 seasons, he still contributed more points for his team then Wilson did, so had Carr been gifted a world beater defense he probably would have had the anew success as Wilson, if not more. Keep that in mind pumpkin.

          • John Holmes

            @ Dale the Fail- Um…which quarterback just cemented his place in NFL history with the second-most career TDs to start a career? Was it Wilson? No, the correct answer is Derek Carr. So only trailing Marino in TDs to start a career is certainly deserving of more respect than some asinine comparison to Cutler, who is absolutely a finished product at this stage in his career btw. Carr, on the other hand, is just getting started in the NFL. But keep on hating, hater. R4L

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            Wow! Remind me to be impressed that Carr has one more TD pass through two years than Wilson – on 372 more passing attempts! That 83.6 passer rating through two years sure puts the heat on Wilson’s 100.6 passer rating through two years. Carr’s 6.19 YPA really ranks up there with Wilson’s 8.09 YPA. Go ahead, be an ostrich. Bury your head in the sand so that you don’t have to see what is right in front of you. Elevate Carr to Wilson’s status if you want to look as foolish at Monson.

            And BTW, Cutler has a career 86.0 passer rating compared to Carr’s 83.7 passer rating. If I remember my math correctly, 86.0>83.7. Carr is still looking up at Cutler. Sorry for the blunt truth!

          • ericthemadman

            You’re an idiot Dale & impossible to talk to…..go troll your teams blog you nit-wit!!

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            ericthemadman- Impossible to talk to because I cite statistics that don’t support Raider fan’s dreams of a return to their glory years with Carr being the golden boy to lead them to the promised land? Come now, I have backed up all my assertions with statistics. All I have received in return is ridicule and personal attacks. There has been no effort to engage in dialogue (apart from Jesse Gardner – see below).

            And let me ask, why do you think that I shouldn’t comment here when Monson made the effort to elevate Carr to elite levels alongside Wilson and Brees. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Carr belongs there, other than hopes and dreams of a bright tomorrow!

          • ericthemadman

            Let me restate the fact that you are a moron! I’m not arguing about your facts….I am optimistic and hopeful. No more, no less….and I just love the fact that you come here to troll and argue with everyone….

            Let me be blatant, I can give a sh!t less what you or any other hater thinks….

          • jwillie4

            You have been insulting, and attacking people personally too. I don’t understand how guys like you can do the same thing others are doing, but can’t see your own part in it.

          • John Holmes

            Dale- I’ve heard of selective listening, but you clearly have a case of selective reading. When did I ever try to compare Carr to Wilson? I was comparing Carr to Cutler based on your assertion that Cutler is a better QB. Dude, it’s kind of sad how you allege that others are blinded by bias, yet you’re the epitome of bias. Your unwavering and irrational love for everything “Wilson” makes me wonder if the Seattle QB has ever had to file a restraining order on you for constant stalking. Lol

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            John Holmes- When did you ever try to compare Carr to Wilson??? How about when you wrote: “Um…which quarterback just cemented his place in NFL history with the
            second-most career TDs to start a career? Was it Wilson? No, the correct
            answer is Derek Carr.”

            Selective reading? Try selective recall! You don’t remember what you wrote. Either that or you don’t want to own up to your own writing. Where is the bias?

          • John Holmes

            Dale- Pointing out 1 stat that Carr surpasses your fantasy lover in doesn’t really qualify as an overall comparison of the 2 QBs, especially when you make sweeping assertions like Cutler is a better QB than Carr, and I never stated Carr was better than the QB in Seattle as of right now. And make whatever excuses you want about pass attempts blah, blah, blah- Carr is second in NFL history in that category in front of your man crush….who you probably stalk too based on the fact that you clearly want to smoke his pickle SO bad. Anyway, I’m done debating with a f_ckn tool like you. But I’d like to extend an invitation to you to visit The Black Hole sometime, so we can all give you a “proper” welcome!

          • jwillie4

            Wow, not only do you not know football, but you have reading comprehension issues. You have the biggest bias out of all the posters.

          • BC Boarder

            If you ever compare Carr to Cutler again, you will be banned from watching football for the rest of your life.

          • crosseyedlemon

            that’s funny!

          • Jesse Gardner

            Generally 2nd yr players don’t have better career numbers than seasoned vets, which seems self explanatory. You seem to be missing the point here though, Carr’s leap happened in his second year with ALL NEW RECEIVERS, and his #1 and #3being rookies (Roberts was an UDFA in ’14, spent season on practice squad). To make things worse, they were all learning a new system, so Carr didn’t even have familiarity with the offense going in, so he was essentially a rookie all over again. He still threw 30+ TDs, lead the league in 25+ yrd TDs, was less then 20 yards off 4000, and had a season passer rating of 91. That’s with barely any run support (28th) and his #1 and half his Oline being injured mid season on. The point being that he will be better in ’16, he has to be. BTW, he also faced the toughest schedule in the NFL in defensive DVOA, so he had that season against mostly top 10 defenses. If he makes the leap as he should, then he will play as well as the best QBs in the league, which isn’t the same thing as stacking career accomplishments, that takes time to be consistent and develop that resume. But if Carr puts up 120+ passer ratings on the reg, then he will be better then those who don’t for that season, understand? Btw Carr was much better than Cutler last season, by a huge margin, in every possible aspect. That comparison was just stupid.

          • sammi dog

            If you want to compare 2nd year Aqaba, Wilson won the SB his 2nd year, Carr didn’t even make the playoffs.

          • Raideriffic

            Wilson was a Pawn on a Defensive Monster team. RGIII would have got a Ring with the Hawks that season.

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            The Seahawks are able to field a monster defense because they have a QB who absolutely dominates the game on offense so much that he transforms a dud RB (3.99 YPC from 2007-2011, 36th in the league) into a stud RB while also making a whole passel of UDFA receivers look like one of the best receiver corps in the game. BTW, in that SB, the Seahawks offense scored on each of their first three possessions. The only first half possession that the Seahawks didn’t score on was their last possession of the half when the offense took over at their own 19 with 1:01 left in the half and leading 22-0.

            Any claim that Wilson wasn’t instrumental in the Seahawks winning that game is just silly. Wilson had a 123.1 passer rating in the game and rushed for 26 yards on three carries. And that was without any contribution from Lynch who put up just 39 yards on 15 carries.

          • Raideriffic

            Blah to the Blah. Hold your tongue because all the rear-view mirror justification, and excuses for losing while the QB had a Greater Role will be Magnified this season…

          • ericthemadman

            Wilson’s defense won a Super Bowl….

          • warcrimes

            Wilson also cost you that second SB with a bad throw.

          • Jesse Gardner

            Yeah sammi, there’s no comparing the Raiders team Carr’s rookie year to the Seahawks Wilson’s his rookie year, that’s asinine.

          • Raideriffic

            AMEN

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            You make some reasonable points. I agree that there is a learning curve that is expected for young QBs. You don’t expect a young QB to be dominant. (That is what was exceptional about Wilson – he was dominant in the passing game from his rookie year on. Wilson is also the reason that the Seahawks running game has worked transforming a rushing attack ranked 23rd in the league in YPC while playing against dreadful defenses in 2011 into the best running game in the league while playing against top-notch defenses year after year.)

            It is also true that Carr made significant improvement in year two. But that improvement elevated him to more or less an average QB. While it is nice to see improvement, Carr hasn’t exactly leaped off the stage to take the NFL by storm. My whole point is that Monson was making a huge stretch to elevate Carr to Brees/Wilson level with just a little more improvement. You have also stretched the truth when you claim that the Raiders faced the most difficult schedule based on DVOA. The Raiders faced the 4th most difficult schedule based on FO’s DVOA strength of opponent defense. Overall (offense and defense), the Raiders faced the 8th most difficult schedule last year.

          • Raideriffic

            DGD MCL
            Let up and go home. Watch the 2016 Season and swallow every negative stitch. You just want to make noise. The Truth shall shut you up, unfortunately waaaay to long from now….
            Raiders, playoffs in 2016. The turns are quick, and difficult to maintain. Broncos beware.

          • Raideriffic

            sounds like some dumbass trying to compare QB “career” for a questionable aging vet who has many years across 2 teams, versus a new 2 year QB who is impressive with stats measureable to some of the best ever… HOW is that a Comparison… DGD MCL you are a bag of blather..

          • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

            Well, if you really want dumbass, just look at those who are trying to claim that with only slight improvement, Carr will be on par with Wilson and Brees! You are absolutely correct that Carr really doesn’t yet have a career arc. That was part of my original point. He doesn’t have enough career for anyone to know whether he will have above average long-term success or whether he will just hover around average. What we do know is that he had a few good games last year but never really strung a bunch of good games together. Most of the time, he was average or below average. For the year, his passer rating of 91.1 ranked 19th in the league. That is hardly the stuff on which to claim he is the next coming!

            But keep the personal insults coming. That just means that you Raiderettes don’t have anything substantive by way of response!

          • ericthemadman

            No, we like picking on ignorant Raider haters…

          • John Holmes

            Dale- “Personal insults,” huh? I’m damn sure I’d be more than happy to say these personal insults you speak of straight to your ugly face, Dale. I wonder if you’d be so bold as to call each and every one of us Raider die-hards “Raiderettes” to our faces…. Bring it like you sing it, sucka!!!! R4L

          • Raideriffic

            Hilaarious…. live in the past.
            Stats are all about what was.
            Carr’s numbers in 2 seasons are easy top 10 comparisons for a 2nd year player, now with Cooper and the Vet Crabtree Happy to escape the dumpster fire of SF, new life,
            Killer duo, of 1000yd WR.
            go Baldwin!. ? how about that name for a killer #1 receiver? ringing fear unto defenders hearts.

            har-har-har. living in the past is easy,
            persoally looking forward to the 40% bandwagon heehaw fans to drop to Sounders in 8 months.
            all the Hawk Friday dress-up days are just on a timeline to the oblivion of a dynasty that wasn’t…..

          • Mike Riley

            You are correct in the assertion that he doesn’t have a career arc to confirm what type of qb he is going to become however as for the string of games comment I disagree. There was a stretch from week 7-9 following the bye where he had a TD-INT ratio of 11-1 & was on a 8-3 clip prior to that. Even during his tail end of the season while he had 3 multi-int games, there were 3 games where he had 0 ints with injuries to his starting center & RT as well as Cooper hitting the prevurbial rookie wall. So while there isn’t anything to claim he is elite now, based on the company he is statistically in his first 2 seasons (Marino, Wilson, & Manning) his potential & career trajectory is trending upward. Also don’t want you to think I’m attacking you for your opinion but your comparisons do seem like you’re fishing for negatives.

          • ericthemadman

            well, you’re comparing a rookie to veterans?? I will take Carr in his current state any day of the week!! Guaranteed there are 15-20 teams that would love to have him….

          • Jesse Gardner

            So how you feel about that Carr Wilson comparison so far this year bud?

          • jwillie4

            Carr beat Brees head to head already. Wilson will be passed by the end of the year. Wilson is not now, nor will he ever be elite. Carr will thrive as an elite for years.

        • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

          Fail! Carr’s QBR last year was 49.2 (23rd in the NFL). That was ahead of Flacco’s 40.9 QBR last year (in what was a down year for Flacco but Flacco as been equal to or better than 49.2 in 5 of 8 seasons). Carr’s QBR is massively behind Ryan’s at 61.8. Ryan has never posted a QBR below 53.7 and has a couple of years with QBRs above 70.

          Carr isn’t even in sniffing distance distance of Brees (75.5) and Wilson (74.9). Wilson’s lowest QBR in four years in the league is 60.4 and he has been above 70 three times. And Monson is trying to equate Carr with Wilson? Give it a rest!

          • MikeB59

            You are apparently using ESPN’s “total QBR.” On the NFL’s stats website for last year, they give Carr a rating of 91.1 and Ryan an 89.0. Flacco has a rating of 83.1. So I guess different statisticians have differing methodologies. Time will tell how good Carr is. I like his chances.

          • warcrimes

            QBR is a made up garbage ESPN stat that they’re going to stop using soon.. Just look at where Bridgewater’s QBR has him ranked.

            Passer Rating(the standard everyone else uses)has Carr in the 10-12 ranked spot, can’t remember the exact number.

          • gllmiaspr

            Passer Rating measures the team passing effectiveness and PFF is right in asserting that is not a good measure of QB performance. If you go by Passer Rating Carr was 19th behind Mariotta and Hoyer and ahead of Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill.

      • Pridenpoise

        He’s easily better then Ryan, go give your head a shake.

      • chollycheese

        I’d you read the article you would see he was already graded over Matt Ryan last year, stop hating and start taking notice…

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    • Duncan France

      This is the same guy that called Tom Brady done the year he crushed it and went on to win the super bowl. He’s a hack. I wish we could do a ProWritersFocus. Sam Monson ranks last at his position.

      • Dale GoDawgs McLerran

        Yep! Monson just wrote a few days back that the Seahawks as a team rank 13th in the amount of talent on their roster. He is PFFs equivalent of Pete Prisco over at CBS.

        • Junior Robin

          Maybe all the non-talent at receiver and especially offensive line made them look that bad. All the other positions are stacked.

  • Chris

    Yes it would.

  • Justin Finocchi

    Carr will enter top 5 QB territory this year and will stay there for the next decade. He’s everything you want in a QB(strong arm, smart, athletic, can read defenses and make the necessary adjustments at the line(change play and protections), gym rat, film junkie. He’s been reading defenses and watching film with his brother, David Carr, since he was 10 years old. Playing QB is very foreign and new for most young QB’s but for Carr it is comfortable and familiar because he’s been doing it his whole life.

    • http://www.AintNobodyGotTimeFoDat.com tuckrulefool

      He is what Rich Gannon should have been -early- in his career. Except less of an A-hole…. 😉

      • DahlerStore

        Gannon was an a-hole?

        • http://www.AintNobodyGotTimeFoDat.com tuckrulefool

          at times, yes….

    • DahlerStore

      4 weeks in and it looks like he’s already there!

  • Wm Bill L Rhoades

    What I also like about Carr, is that in his personal life, he is deeply rooted and with correct principles, which is an advantage to everyone he’s around. So his inner self, developed as he has grown up, affects all aspects of his life, and believe it or not, it affects not just his family, but others around him. He has his feet firmly under him, and what he’s doing, doesn’t get out of focus in the other areas of life. Many can and could learn from such.
    His potential is an ongoing things, being developed and cultivated in a healthy manner, he sets a good example by not ‘reading what others say about him’, having had great advice from brother and family, and yes, even their coach, Jack Del Rio. Their ship is on an even keel, and can remain this way.
    Carr has been bonding with Mack, and it really ‘feels’ as if it was sort of meant that they were destined to meet and become great friends…So this time, FINALLY, in the time of the NFL that it is, vs the past when the Lamonica, and Stabler and Gannon eras’…stability, hard work, lifting each other, encouraging each other, and making, through the work ethics that these young men obviously grew up with, the making of this team, is going to be lasting, enduring, and great to watch.

    • Raiderhays

      Dude… That was beautiful! Well put my man. Well damned put!

    • Angel

      Well said sir. Well said.. Go Raiders

    • crosseyedlemon

      “he is deeply rooted and with correct principles”….but only because they agree with your own right? It would interesting to see the reaction of certain people if he suddenly decided to convert to another religion.
      P.S. let’s not be so naive as to think that professional athletes don’t read what is written about them. Most of them (including Derek Carr) have social media accounts.

      • Jim C

        It is sad to see someone attempt to tear down another simply because they live a healthy life based on traditional values. If we look at the evidence, a pure scientific consideration of the facts, we see that players well rooted in a healthy traditional life have less distractions that may compromise their focus. In my opinion, that is all the writer meant, but leave it up to someone out there to find fault in something clearly good.

        • crosseyedlemon

          First off I’m not tearing down Derek Carr who I think will be a good QB for the Raiders for years to come. I just take exception when people try to suggest that a certain set of values must be adopted for someone to achieve success or happiness in their lives.

          • Ron

            Well said

          • freespeechmyarse

            We get it, you’re Godless. That’s your problem though, not ours or Derek Carr’s.

          • jwillie4

            Yes you are trying to tear down Derek Carr, and you know it. Nobody said that his values had to be adopted to achieve success, and you know it. You are lying and you know it. All this is, is your attempt to try and devalue what you don’t like, and you know it. You don’t like Jesus, so what the majority of us do. You are not fooling anyone, and you know it.

      • ericthemadman

        Maybe you share the same values as johnny Football? Or probably just a sore Bolts fan!!

        Well said Bill, my sentiments exactly!!

        • Ron

          Drink the jiz

          • ericthemadman

            Spoken like a true professional Bolts fan… :-)

      • Rhunny Poopysquirts

        Principles are not only for the religious. I’m not very into the religion thing myself and I am usually a pretty kind human being.

      • Ron

        Agreed,he either has the talent or he doesn’t.. Stupid mtf..Must be sperm drinking queers liking the idiots comments

        • jwillie4

          Insult people when you have no argument. Typical response from liberals.

  • http://about.me/mikelince Mike Lince

    The Raiders were perennial cellar dwellers for so long that they have been an easy target for laughter and derision. After last season’s showing, it’s clear this is a team on the rise. And once again they are investigating a move out of the Bay Area (Las Vegas maybe?). Given the rabid loyalty of their fan base, I think Oakland deserves better.

    • http://www.AintNobodyGotTimeFoDat.com tuckrulefool

      That’s the problem. Oakland politicos have done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to keep them.

      Mayor Shaft is a disgrace.

      Vega$ Raiders Baby!

      • Kenny Stapler

        Wudup tuck!

        • http://www.AintNobodyGotTimeFoDat.com tuckrulefool

          Word up Staple man! We are in some uncharted territory out here! I felt naked!

          • Kenny Stapler

            Blog ambassadors

          • http://www.AintNobodyGotTimeFoDat.com tuckrulefool

            Its nice to get out once in a while! I have my away blawg jersey on!

          • Kenny Stapler

            Lmao

      • Raideriffic

        Vegas, Every team will want to Play AT Raiders, no Team will want to play Against Raiders… Home Field, Advantage huge… With a Team on the Rise!

    • Donavon Howard

      I understand the loyalty to Oakland but for me personally I am not an Oakland fan. I’m a Raider fan and they could play in China for all I care, because they are the same franchise no matter where they play. Don’t get me wrong I would prefer for them to stay in Oakland but at the end of the day I will never stop being a fan based on where they play. At least if the Raiders move it won’t be the same as when the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens or when the Oilers moved to Tennessee. The Raiders franchise can’t wait forever for a long term solution in Oakland.

      • crosseyedlemon

        Excellent comment Don. No relocation can ever erase the great history behind the Raider franchise and that is what prompted most fans to become loyal supporters in the first place. I’ve been a lifelong Bears fan because of the great tradition behind that franchise and I would remain so even if the Bears relocated to China.

  • souldogdave

    Derek Carr has given the Raider Nation hope.

  • Caleb Filiault

    he really struggles under pressure, but luckily for him he has a great offensive line. he does have the ability to make all of the throws and is pretty athletic on top of that. if he can be a little more consistent, then he could become a top 10 qb.

    • LivingLegnd

      If I recall, DC had one of the highest passer ratings when being blitzed. It’s the non-blitz pressure that he had trouble with.

      • Caleb Filiault

        im talking about when he was actually pressured, not necessarily against the blitz. and basic stats like passer rating dont really tell a players’ skill.

    • Pridenpoise

      I have no idea what you’ve been watching. He’s great when pressured

    • Donavon Howard

      Carr was one of the best QBs against pressure in 2015. U blitz Carr he usually makes u pay for it

      • Caleb Filiault

        he played well against the blitz because he had one of the best offensive lines in the league, so he had a lot more time and space than others to adjust to it. when he was actually pressured is where the issues happened.

  • D.l. Hannah

    This is a good article and time will tell on the future, but it looks bright. The part I think you have wrong is the first season. you forget that CArr had little to work with compared to Bridgewater

  • Mike

    Decent article, by PFF standards. There’s absolutely NO WAY you could have convinced me to take Bridgewater over Carr after their rookie seasons. In terms of actually throwing/placing passes Carr has always been light yrs ahead of TB. I think anyone can see that Derek has all of the talent and character to be an elite QB, whatever that REALLY means. Personally, I’d rather have a mediocre QB and SB rings, than an elite QB on a .500 team (Brees/Saints, Flacco/Ravens, etc.)

  • Pridenpoise

    I stopped reading after this genius said Bridgewater had a better rookie year, lmao stick to women’s tennis asshat, you’re clueless when it comes to QB’s.

    • Donavon Howard

      Bridgewater had talent around him in his rookie season unlike DC. I almost laughed when this analyst said that Carr needs to reduce the number of interceptions he throws lol. He acts like Carr threw a ton of picks lol. I think Aaron Rodgers threw 12 picks so what difference does it make. Most of Carrs INTs were off of tipped passes anyways. These analysts get so wrapped up in stat comparisons that it’s crazy. What counts most is that with Carr the Raiders can compete with any team in the league and has the ability to put the team on his back when he is in rythm and that is what a franchise quarterback is.

      • drew

        Teddy had Matt Asiata, Charles Johnson, and a gray Greg Jennings his rookie season. The offensive line was not good. You guys have conveniently forgotten Adrian beat his kid.

    • John Holmes

      Exactly!!! And then he goes on to minimize what an awful season “Beastwater”(as some Minny fans call him, fu_ckn LOL to that one) had last year. 14 total TD passes on the year FROM A STARTING NFL QB?!!! Rofl. That’s garbage, whether you have AP lined up in the backfield or not! I can’t wait to hear the excuses for this submarine relief pitcher posing as a starting NFL QB this season since their OL has apparent improved, and they drafted a WR who should be a matchup problem due to his height vs. smaller CBs. And, yes, Minny fans absolutely started this debate, and Carr put the debate to rest! RIP

  • John

    Carr is certainly talented, but how about that crop of quarterbacks in the AFC South? http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/06/14/could-2016-be-the-year-of-the-afc-south/

  • Jus Mee

    It makes sense, hope he’s right.

  • Raiderhays

    Carr to Bridgewater comparisons crack me up. Did you see what Carr had for a O-line his rookie year? Or.. who he had to throw to? Or..hand off to? Minnesota had a killer O-line AND Adrian Peterson. That tightens up the defense and allows receivers to get open on the play-action. Carr had nothing… N.O.T.H.I.N.G. This is NOT about Carr, but about the team RM is building. And with the team around him… Carr will shine. Just wait and watch.

    • drew

      Adrian didn’t play any games with Teddy that year due to a child abuse suspension. The offensive line was not good either.

      Teddy looked better to PFF in year one when he was tasked with being the offense. Enter Adrian Peterson and a defense coached by Zimmer with another year under their belt. Teddy suddenly doesn’t have to do a ton to win games. His stats suffered as a result, but I’m sure he’d do it again for 11-5 and a home playoff game (he drove on the Seahawks in crunch time to set up Walsh for the horrible kick FYI). Teddy has done everything the Vikings have asked of him.

      Carr has done everything the Raiders have asked as well. His defense isn’t quite as good but they could take a very nice step forward this year.

      The only thing that is settled with Carr vs Bridgewater is that Carr has a stronger arm. I don’t think anyone will dispute that unless they’re a homer Vikings fan. They are both calm in the pocket, mobile, accurate, and their teammates seem to adore them.

      It’s not Teddy’s fault that he plays with a foundation back. Their stats won’t be legitimately comparable until the Vikings join the rest of the NFL with a more pass-happy offense, but their rookie years are closer to a fair fight than their sophomore years.

  • Michael Page

    As a Raider fan her is a joy to watch. All the numbers support his growth! I’m hoping he busts out and takes the league by storm. I believe he is better than at least 75% of the quarterbacks in the league based on raw talent alone. Once the game slows down for him he will leapfrog into that elite upper tier of QB’s IMHO!

  • Larry Anderson

    There is a lot of discussion about individual statistics, but didn’t those QB’s have vastly better team compositions than Derek Carr worked with? Does not team composition enable a QB to do more than a QB with less?

  • crosseyedlemon

    A young QB can have tons of talent but gaining the confidence of coaches and teammates is really the tipping point that determines whether he will progress. Last season you could clearly see that Carr had crossed that threshold. I’m not going to project him as another Manning or Brady but barring injury he should be a fixture at QB for the Raiders for the next several years.

  • Robert Fairbanks

    As a 55 year Chargers fan the Raiders are the one team I have said will be the division champions soon, now that Del Rio is the coach and Carr the QB of the future.

    Many of my fellow Bolts fans are delusional and can’t recognize the fact the Raiders are on the up swing.

  • Ron

    Stupid geekjew,kike mtf…Hell be better when he takes a sack or throws the ball away when pressured

    • Jesse Gardner

      He does throw the ball away, but usually still takes flak for it.

  • Ron

    Sam go suck more cock u gay mtf

  • gllmiaspr

    To predict whether a QB is going to be great based on one year’s performance (particularly the 1st or second year) is a risky proposition.
    The two best examples are RGIII which you can argue went down because of his injury) and Ryan Tannehill who in 2013 was ranked FIFTH by PFF ahead of Tom Brady (even though he ended with a Passer Rating of about 82).
    I agree that PFF method is better than Passer Rating. But the fluctuations in performance from year to year are huge.
    Carr looks like a promising QB based on what we saw last year. But it takes a few years to establish a QB as an elite performer.