PPO Potpourri — Week 3

Tyler Loechner explores who made the most of their opportunities in Week 2 and predicts who it will be in Week 3.

| 4 years ago

PPO Potpourri — Week 3

6262303632_12a5fa29ea_zWith two weeks in the books, it feels like we are now officially officially into the season. In this week’s PPO Potpourri, we will look at the previous week’s points-per-opportunity (PPO*) data to find the players that made the most of their time on the field and name some players that, well, didn’t.

If you read the first edition of PPO Potpourri, you’ll know that I made PPO predictions on nine players — three each from the WR, RB, and TE positions. So in addition to making nine predictions for Week 3, we’ll also look back at my Week 2 predictions and see how I fared.

Note that new this week — and for the rest of the season — the threshold for a player to qualify as a top-10 guy is now 50 percent of a respective team’s snaps, up from 25 percent. This was done to eliminate as much flukiness as possible. Let’s get to it.

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Tyler Loechner is a lead writer at PFF Fantasy. He has played fantasy football since 1999 and has been a part of the PFF Fantasy staff since 2010. Tyler was also previously a fantasy football featured columnist at Bleacher Report.

  • [email protected]

    I don’t think you can look at Spiller’s 2012 performances vs NY and extrapolate. In the opener, the Jets broke out to a big lead. They basically bottled Spiller up, all day, but he had Barry Sanders type of game 15 carries for 20 and 2 for 90 and a TD. Now, that counts, and his big play ability always gives him that shot. The second game was the last of the season, and NY basically mailed that game in. Another factor last year, both Pouha and Ellis were never fully healthy. Devito was playing out of position at NT and Coples was a rookie. Add the putrid LB play from Pace, Scott, Harris and Thomas and everyone ran on them. Fast forward to the first 2 games this year where Doug Martin did nothing and NE couldn’t run either. Ellis is healthy and he and Harrison have been as good as any interior in the league (I know, it’s early). Wilkerson has actually seen so much double that he looks ineffective, but it’s clearly allowing for Richardson to make an impact. With the line blowing up running plays, with regularity, a lighter more active Harris and Demario Davis have been able to have unblocked shots at the opposing RB.
    As I said, Spiller has some Barry Sanders in him, so on any one play his speed could create a big play, just as it did last year, in week 1. But, you have to think that Ryan is going to force EJ Manuel to beat him, so if Spiller does break one, it will likely be a highlight play, because there is no way NY isn’t keying on him. I think you should ‘make another leap’, as this one is likely to resemble the Looney Tunes characters running off a cliff, looking down and realizing: ‘this was probably not a good decision’.
    In fact, I think you should look at Matt Forte. Conventional wisdom suggests the Steelers are a tough run D, except they’re not and with Chicago’s new offense, Forte is likely going to see a lot of short passes against a slow group of LB. I’ll bet Trestman and Cutler are licking their chops.

    • Tyler Loechner

      Hey, thanks for the comment! I agree with you on Forte. Unfortunately, I couldn’t choose him to “make the leap” as he was in the top 10 for PPO in Week 2.

      You also raise some great points about Spiller — so I guess we’ll just have to wait for the game to see how it plays out. Maybe it wasn’t fair of me to solely mention Spiller’s 2012 performances against the Jets, but that’s not the only reason I like him. After watching the Panthers snuff Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks in Week 1, many people were scared of Spiller going against them in Week 2 — but it turned out alright for him. And while FJax stole a touchdown las week, I’m expecting Spiller to score this week (either from a short or a long run).

      To your point of Rex Ryan forcing EJ Manuel to beat them, I don’t doubt that will be the gameplan. However, I think the game remains close throughout, meaning Spiller will be used even if he’s the focus of the defense (which, let’s be honest, he’s the focus of the opposing defense every week). If anything, I think the Bills are up late in this one, giving Spiller even more chances.

      If Spiller flops, I’ll be sure to mention you as the commenter that told me so.

      • [email protected]

        No need, I’m just a hack. I neglected to read in order to ‘make the leap’ you had to be out of the top 10, the previous week. Full disclosure, I’m a Jet fan, so I’m also talking myself into what I think should, or hope should happen.
        I know you don’t touch on this, but I also think Cutler is going to shred Pittsburgh this week. While most focus on his proclivity to turn the ball over, they neglect Pittsburgh’s ability to create TOs. If Dalton was just a touch more accurate, Monday Night, he’d have had a huge night. I’m also big on Bucs D this week. The NYJ were won blown coverage away from holding him TDless. Plus Geno’s fumble gave them 3pts. The Bucs have 9 sacks. Revis won’t blow that coverage, and Goldson is playing. I think ‘Tommy’ is in for a rough day.