PPO Potpourri — Week 12

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of PPO Potpourri, where we will look at the previous week’s points-per-opportunity (PPO) data to find the players that made the most of their opportunities and name some players that, well, didn’t.

If you’ve been following the PPO Potpourri series, you’ll know that each week I make PPO predictions on nine players — three each from the WR, RB, and TE positions. We’ll also look back at my Week 11 predictions to see how I fared.

An opportunity is defined as Carries+Routes Run, so PPO is Fantasy Points/(Carries+Routes). In order to qualify for the top 10, a player must have been in on at least 50 percent of the number of snaps the snap count leader at their respective position took each week. For example, if we were both wide receivers and you took 100 snaps and I took 49, I would not qualify for the list. This data is for points-per-reception leagues.

Wide Receiver

Vincent Jackson (1.20 PPO) found his groove with Mike Glennon again, hauling in 10 balls (on 11 targets) for 165 yards and a score. It was his first touchdown since Week 7, and the performance should restore faith in owners that he can be relied on in the fantasy playoffs.

Michael Floyd (0.76) made the list thanks in large part to a 91-yard catch and run for a score, but his game was more than just that play. He had 193 yards receiving in Week 11, which is more than he had in his four previous games combined. He’s a solid boom or bust guy going forward — he has now scored twice in three weeks.

Calvin Johnson (0.72) led all receivers with 35.9 fantasy points and has now made the list in four of the past five weeks. He caught just half of the balls thrown his way, but scored twice for the third time in four weeks.

Wedged in between Megatron and Vincent Jackson in terms of fantasy points scored in Week 11, Antonio Brown (0.70) also made the list. He ran 49 pass routes, the third most he’s run in a single game this season, and scored two touchdowns on seven catches. He has five touchdowns on the season, but has only scored three of Pittsburgh’s 10 games.

As far as the rest of the list goes, it’s filled with an interesting mix of names. For example, Doug Baldwin (0.62) made the list despite catching just two passes. Harry Douglas (0.56) had a Julio Jones-esque game with 134 yards and a score, but it was just his second touchdown of the season.

A.J. Green (0.09) had a terrible game, catching just two balls for seven yards. Cecil Shorts (0.10) had a similar game, but at least he fared better in the yardage department (two catches, 22 yards).

Who I thought would repeat: Brandon Marshall. Very mediocre game for Marshall. His 0.26 PPO put him right in the middle of qualifying receivers. No point! 

Who I thought would be friend zoned: Jermaine Kearse. Didn’t qualify. Point!

Who I thought would make the leap: T.Y. Hilton. Like Marshall, Hilton was simply average. He scored 0.25 PPO. No point!

Looking ahead to week 12… 

Repeat Performance: Calvin Johnson. Next.

End Zone to Friend Zone: Jarius Wright. He caught three passes and scored two touchdowns. Not happening again.

Making the Leap: Demaryius Thomas. I think he has a great day against New England.

Running Back 

The top two guys on this week’s list — Bobby Rainey (0.97) and Donald Brown (0.90) — came out of nowhere, especially Rainey. Rainey carried the ball a league leading 30 times in Week 11 after carrying the ball 21 times from Weeks 1-10. He also now has three touchdowns in the past two weeks.

LeSean McCoy (0.78) got his mojo back, scoring twice and catches four passes for 73 yards. Matt Forte (0.60) made the list for the first time since the Week 8 edition, boosted by his five catches for 42 yards and a score through the air.

Rashad Jennings’ (0.51) heavy workload continued, and he cashed in on 22 carries for 150 yards and a score. It was his second straight week with over 20 carries, although he only caught two passes (for -2 yards).

Chris Johnson (0.49) had his second good game in three weeks, scoring twice and gaining 86 yards. Like Jennings, Johnson was bad through the air. He had just one catch (for -1 yards), although he’s typically good for at least three catches for 20 yards.

Ray Rice (0.47) made the list, but he still didn’t have a positive PFF grade. He hasn’t had a positive PFF grade since Week 1, and even then it was just a grade of 0.6. Even still, Rice did outperform Bernard Pierce against the Bears and might have warded off Pierce in the process (in terms of workload).

Knowshon Moreno (0.15), usually a frequent on the list, was the worst of all qualifying running backs. He ran the ball 27 times — second most of all backs in Week 11 — but gained just 2.9 yards per carry and didn’t catch a pass.

Joining Moreno at the bottom of the rankings were Reggie Bush (0.17) and Adrian Peterson (0.18). Bush was ineffective, gaining just 31 yards on 12 carries and fumbling the ball. Peterson gained just 3.1 yards per carry and failed to catch a pass.

Who I thought would repeat: Reggie Bush. See above. No point!

Who I thought would be friend zoned: Le’Veon Bell. He averaged just two yards per carry and didn’t make the list with 0.24 PPO. Point!

Who I thought would make the leap: Jamaal Charles. Had a low 0.19 PPO despite a healthy 4.9 yards per carry average. No point!

Looking ahead to week 12…

Repeat Performance: Matt Forte. It’s against the Rams and he’s the name I trust most from this weeks’ list.

End Zone to Friend Zone: Ray Rice. He’s going up against the stingy Jets defense, and to be honest, just one good game from his hasn’t turned me into a believer.

Making the Leap: Frank Gore. There are a lot of options for this category this week, but I’m going with Gore against the Redskins on Monday night.

Tight End

Overall, the tight ends performed much better this week. It didn’t take much to make the list in recent weeks, but this week had a healthy spread (0.76-0.46).

Delanie Walker (0.76) caught all 10 balls thrown his way for 91 yards and a score. It was clearly his best game of the season, and he now has three touchdowns in the past four weeks. Of tight ends that come after the top tier, Walker is proving to be one of the most reliable.

Charles Clay (0.75) had an electric play at the end of the game to cap off his first good game since Week 5. It needs to be noted that 77 of Clay’s 90 yards came after the catch. To put that in perspective, he had just 70 yards after the catch in his previous six games combined.

Greg Olsen (0.58) pounced on the Patriots, gaining 52 yards and scoring once. He slipped in Week 10 with just 0.08 PPO, but rebounded nicely. He has now made the list in four of the past five weeks.

The week I gave up on him was the week Garrett Graham (0.56) decided to play. He caught seven passes for 136 yards and a touchdown. It was his first score since Week 4 and his targets, receptions, yards, and yards per reception were all season highs.

Some big names just squeaked their way’s into the list this week, including Julius Thomas (0.51), Rob Gronkowski (0.47) and Tony Gonzalez (0.46). Thomas and Gronk scored, while Gonzalez picked up 63 yards despite playing just 67 percent of Atlanta’s snaps.

Jordan Cameron (0.15), a regular on the list to start the season, gained just 29 yards despite catching six passes. Jimmy Graham (0.28) was also held in check. He saw 11 targets — tied for most among tight ends in Week 11 — but gained just 41 yards and failed to score.

Who I thought would repeat: Jordan Reed. One catch for 12 yards. Thanks for nothing. No point!

Who I thought would be friend zoned: Brandon Pettigrew. He scored just 0.16 PPO. Point!

Who I thought would make the leap: Rob Gronkowski. See above. Point!

Looking ahead to week 12… 

Repeat Performance: Rob Gronkowski. Self-explanatory, but I won’t pick him every week.

End Zone to Friend Zone: Garrett Graham. I’m still mad at him for all his other bad games, and I’m not yet convinced that even half of his Week 11 performance is what we can expect to see regularly.

Making the Leap: Jimmy Graham. He hasn’t made the list in back-to-back weeks, so he’s due.

Looking ahead record, Week 11: 4-5

Looking ahead record, Season: 46-44

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