PFF Preview: Bills @ Dolphins, Week 11

After some less than competitive Thursday Night games recently, Robert Habib highlights this AFC East matchup as Week 11 kicks off with a PFF Preview.

| 3 years ago

PFF Preview: Bills @ Dolphins, Week 11

2014-Prev-WK11-BUF@MIAAs awful as “Thursday Night Football” has proven to be this year, this matchup should keep us entertained, as a pair of 5-4 AFC East teams will collide at Sun Life Stadium as they toggle for playoff position in a tight AFC race.

When the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills met back in Week 2, Sammy Watkins had his coming-out party. Watkins earned a pass grade of +3.0, the highest grade of his young career and the second-best pass grade of all Week 2 wide receivers. Watkins’ eight receptions, 117 yards and one touchdown performance earned him a Wide Receiver Rating of 137.3, fourth-best among all wide receivers. Not to mention the fact that Watkins put up 4.88 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), also fourth best among all wide receivers.

Of Watkins 8 receptions and 117 yards, only 21 came against Brent Grimes. Grimes was targeted three times when in coverage against Watkins, allowing only two receptions for 21 yards, although he did give up a touchdown. Yet, Grimes still earned a coverage grade of +1.7 against him. Throughout the year, Grimes has easily shown he’s the Dolphins’ best cornerback. His coverage grade of +5.8 is 11th-best among all cornerbacks and he has allowed an opposing quarterback rating of 60.4, 10th-best among 106 cornerbacks who have played a minimum of 174 snaps.

Not only has Grimes allowed the lowest opposing quarterback rating of all the Dolphins’ cornerbacks, his 1.17 Yards Per Coverage Snap and his 9.7 Coverage Snaps Per Reception are best among the Dolphins’ top four cornerbacks, in terms of snaps played. Grimes is clearly Miami’s best man in coverage, they’d be smart to allow the league-leader in interceptions to follow Watkins around the field, regardless of where he lines up.

Here are three more notable numbers for each side:

Buffalo Bills

Kyle D. Williams – With an overall grade of +20.1, Williams ranks third among all defensive tackles, excelling when rushing the passer (+13.5).

Marcell Dareus – With an overall grade of +18.4, Dareus is one spot behind Williams, while he excels against the run (+10.2).

Corey Graham – The Buffalo native has given up 0.68 Yards Per Coverage Snap, one of the best marks in the league.

Miami Dolphins

Branden Albert – Miami’s prized offseason possession and their best offensive player was placed on season-ending injured reserved after suffering a knee injury. His overall grade of +17.5 was fourth best among all tackles.

Cameron Wake – With a Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) of 13.2, Wake ranks third out of 52 4-3 defensive ends who have played a minimum of 92 passing plays.

Ryan Tannehill – Out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Tannehill ranks 25th in regards to completions deep down the field (20+ yards).

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  • tee

    Miami all the way

  • JC Harris

    A must win for Miami after losing in Week 2. A loss put them back at .500 and a sweep by the Bills. Kiss the playoffs goodbye if Miami loses.

    • corners

      especially with denver and ravens on deck

  • Chris

    With Albert gone and Miller not at 100% the Dolphins should have issues running the ball and in pass protection against a very good Bills front 7. There are some weaknesses to exploit in the passing game, but Tannehill will need time in the pocket to do that.

    Miami has an excellent front 7 of their own and the Bills are banged up at RB as well. However Orton is not Tannehill and the Bills don’t have the receiving weapons Miami does. Grimes is also the best DB on the field so Buffalo will have to deal with that.

    This looks like a low scoring game to me. Both teams are coming off close losses to good teams in which they led late in the game but couldn’t close out. It’s tough to gauge anything into gameplanning one way or another – both could have put extra effort into last week’s contests because they were playing tough opponents, but both could also have been looking ahead to this divisional showdown with lots of playoff implications.

    These seems like a fairly even matchup. I’ll base my pick on the fact that the Bills have lost 4 of 5 to “good teams” (SD, HOU, NE, KC while beating DET) while beating up on the Jest and squeaking by MIN.

    Since losing bad to KC, Miami is 1-2 against “good teams” and one of those losses came on a fake spike (they blew out the same SD team that beat Buffalo, and lost the DET this past weekend) while pasting OAK, CHI, and JAX in the same time span. I’ll take Miami to get revenge for the week 2 blowout with a narrow, low scoring win at home.

    • corners

      nice review. I left and came back an hour later and thought i was reading a blog.

      So good job.

  • corners

    I hope grimes shadows watkins,finnegan is out with an ankle injury.

    Phins have some issues on offense, but i think the dolphins offense is more rounded than the bills.

  • slippyboy

    chris you make a great point. im interested to see this grimes/watkins matchup

  • slippyboy

    im thinkin bills cover that spread. fins offense to be stagnant! (fingers crossed)