Performance Based Value: Denver Broncos

Put simply, the Broncos have one of the most impressive rosters in the league -- especially from a value for money standpoint.

| 4 years ago
PBV-DEN-Feature

Performance Based Value: Denver Broncos


In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:

• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)

Here are 2012′s most undervalued and overvalued Denver Broncos:

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

 

Undervalued

 1. Von Miller, Linebacker

What can you say about Miller that hasn’t already been said? His 86 combined sacks, hits and hurries were the joint most of any defensive player, and what makes that all the more impressive is the nature of them as outlined here. Not only that, but Miller is exceptional at getting off blocks in the run game to make plays, and made 15 tackles for losses. He’s every bit the playmaker he was drafted to be and near impossible to overvalue. Miller naturally finished the year our top ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, and even treating him as an edge rusher (as we did in this study) saw him valued extremely highly.

2012 Cap Hit: $4.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $18m
Value Differential: +$13.2m

2. Chris Harris, Cornerback

There are those who will probably say Harris had an easier job of things with Champ Bailey tracking a team’s top receiver. That only tells half the story, with Harris not only coping outside, but showing his worth as a slot cornerback who proved capable of defending two-way releases. His work in the run game warrants a mention as well, with only Antoine Winfield having more defensive stops in the run game than the 16 he managed. A fine all-around player who somehow went undrafted. How?

2012 Cap Hit: $475k
2012 Performance Based Value: $9.4m
Value Differential: +$8.9m

3. Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receiver

Do you think Thomas liked playing with Peyton Manning? His breakout year saw him reel in a number of spectacular catches, finish second overall in our wide receiver rankings and average a quite ridiculous 2.5 yards per route run. His cap hit isn’t designed to be team friendly, but his performances ensured that it is, with a bumper new deal bound to follow shortly.

2012 Cap Hit: $5.1m
2012 Performance Based Value: $10.5m
Value Differential: +$5.3m

4. Rahim Moore, S – Cap: $1m, PBV: $5.5m, Value Differential: +$4.5m

5. Orlando Franklin, OT – Cap: $1m, PBV: $4.7m, Value Differential: +$3.7m

6. Eric Decker, WR – Cap: $750k, PBV: $4.3m, Value Differential: +$3.6m

7. Wesley Woodyard, LB – Cap: $1.8m, PBV: $4.7m, Value Differential: +$2.9m

8. Brandon Stokley, WR – Cap: $500k, PBV: $3.4m, Value Differential: +$2.9m

9. Tony Carter, CB – Cap: $600k, PBV: $3.5m, Value Differential: +$2.9m

10. Zane Beadles, OG – Cap: $800k, PBV: $3.8m, Value Differential: +$2.8m

 

Overvalued

1. Elvis Dumervil, Defensive End

This may seem odd, given that Dumervil got to the quarterback for 12 sacks but what else did he do and how quickly did those sacks come? His 60 combined sacks, hits and hurries isn’t a terrible return for a pass rusher, but when you get swallowed up as much in the run game as Dumervil and get flagged for eight penalties, are you really worth such a big cap hit?

2012 Cap Hit: $15.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.6m
Value Differential: -$14m

2. Chris Kuper*, Guard

Now Kuper obviously had some health issues that limited his ability to play (he would see just 316 regular season snaps) and that is the chief reason for his lack of value. His pass blocking when he came in was fine, and though he struggled to get much push in the running game he wasn’t a liability. Sometimes it’s just all about the playing time.

2012 Cap Hit: $4.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1m
Value Differential: -$3.4m

3. Tracy Porter*, Cornerback

Porter didn’t exactly start the year off playing particularly well, but injury saw him leave the line-up and the fine form of Chris Harris and Tony Carter would ensure there wasn’t a spot for him when he was deemed healthy enough.

2012 Cap Hit: $4m

2012 Performance Based Value: $700K

Value Differential: -$3.3m

4. Joe Mays*, LB – Cap: $3.7m, PBV: $750k, Value Differential: -$2.9m

5. Ty Warren*, DE – Cap: $2.8m, PBV: $50k, Value Differential: $-2.8m

6. Champ Bailey, CB – Cap: $11.3m, PBV: $8.6m, Value Differential: -$2.6m

7. D.J. Williams*, LB – Cap: $3.7m, PBV: $1.4m, Value Differential: -$2.3m

8. Peyton Manning, QB – Cap: $18m, PBV: $16.3m, Value Differential: -$1.7m

9. Robert Ayers, DE – Cap: $2.2m, PBV: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$900k

10. Willis McGahee, RB – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $1.8m, Value Differential: -$700k

 

Summary – Team Value Differential: +$30.4m

There’s no other way to spin it, the Broncos killed it with finding regular season value. Even counting how much they’re overpaying Dumervil the tremendous value they’re getting throughout the team (especially on defense) is a testament to an extremely well built roster. In total, 28 players earned negative scores and 33 earned positive ones.

 
Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled


  • Miguel

    what scale do you guys use to determine this??? How could Peyton Manning the runner up for the MVP be overvalued at 18 million dollars thats obsurd.

    • Joe

      It’s PFF.

    • RealityChecker1

      Because any sane person knows that merely being a runner up for MVP does NOT justifies an outrageously high salary.

  • Raz

    because 18 million is way too much to pay a QB who will never get it done when it matters.

    • George McDowell

      All those playoff victories and a Super Bowl win and still the little trolls can’t help themselves. Note that without the video cheating, Brady has zero rings. Also note that he had Flacco beat until Rahim Moore let a WR get behind him in the final seconds of regulation.

      • Ed

        All those playoff victories? Peyton Manning is damn near 70% one-and-done for his career in the playoffs.

      • RealityChecker1

        Peyton is ranked 98th all time in postseason win/loss records. He’s one of the WORST QBs in history in the postseason. Playing against a bunch of weak opponents in the regular season to pad his stats and then go one and done in the playoffs has been his career track record.

  • George McDowell

    1. You have no credibility if you suggest a guy Dumervil’s age with another 12 sack season is worth $1.2. Backup tight ends who drop 10 of the 40 passes thrown to them are worth more! There’s not a team in the NFL that wouldn’t pay Elvis $10M on a one year deal, nor are there any that wouldn’t have last year based on the numbers you show. The whole methodology needs to be re-evaluated when the guy who finished 2nd in the NFL in MVP voting is the 8th most overvalued Bronco because he was “only” worth $16.3M. Step away from the Excel spreadsheet and watch the effing game!