Opportunity-Adjusted Touchdowns (OTD) Recap – Week 1

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Mike Clay explores each player's scoring opportunity with his Week 1 OTD analysis.

| 2 years ago
rashad-jennings

Opportunity-Adjusted Touchdowns (OTD) Recap – Week 1


rashad-jenningsI’ve written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you’re new to the stat, be sure to check out the original introductions to rushing and receiving OTD. This past offseason, I also improved my methodology and you can read the rushing, passing, and receiving articles via the provided links. In a nutshell, the OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity.

Scroll down for the updated 2014 OTD leaderboard.

Editor’s Note: This week’s OTD article is free to the public, but future versions will be behind the PFF Fantasy Gold paywall. Sign up for full access to PFF Fantasy all season long here for only $24.99, or get access free via DraftKings here.

Week 1 Recap

Receiving

Demaryius Thomas was targeted while in the end zone a league-high three times. This is interesting considering he managed only 11 during the entire 2013 regular season. Note that Eric Decker – now with the Jets – paced Denver with 13 end-zone targets last season. Wes Welker was third with 10 and Julius Thomas managed only seven.

Calvin Johnson (four) and Demaryius Thomas (three) were the only two players to see more than two Week 1 end-zone targets.

The list of those who saw two: Terrance Williams, Larry Donnell, Jason Witten, Jordy Nelson, Joe Fauria, Travis Benjamin, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, and Brandon LaFell.

Last season, Kendall Wright was targeted while within 5 yards of the opponent’s end zone only three times. He already has one under his belt in 2014. He converted it into a touchdown. Expect Ken Whisenhunt to make better use of Wright than the previous regime did.

During the 2012 and 2013 seasons, Hakeem Nicks failed to catch a single ball thrown to him while he was in the end zone. On Sunday night, he broke the streak, hauling in a pass while six yards deep in the end zone.

Rushing

Rashad Jennings easily paced the entire league with a 1.6 rushing OTD in Week 1. He carried the ball three times within 2 yards of the end zone, scoring once. Rookie Andre Williams did not record a carry within 40 yards of the end zone.

Khiry Robinson (0.9) and Mark Ingram (0.8) each had two carries within 3 yards of the end zone, which allowed both Saints backs to finish in the top four in rushing OTD. Robinson scored from 2 yards out, while Ingram scored twice from 3 yards away.

There were only six rushing attempts from the opponent’s 1-yard line in Week 1. They were handled by Jennings (two), Andrew Luck, Steven Jackson, Khiry Robinson, and Darrel Young.

Be sure to check back each week for updated OTD tables and analysis.

2014 OTD LEADERBOARD
RUSHING   RECEIVING
Rk Rusher Att  TD 2014
OTD
2013
OTD
  Rk Receiver Targ TD 2014
OTD
2013
OTD
1 Rashad Jennings 16 1 1.6 6.0 1 Demaryius Thomas 11 0 1.8 7.5
2 Khiry Robinson 6 1 0.9 1.0 2 Calvin Johnson 11 2 1.5 11.3
3 Andrew Luck 5 1 0.9 4.0 3 Joseph Fauria 4 0 1.4 6.4
4 Mark Ingram 13 2 0.8 1.0 4 Brandin Cooks 8 1 1.3 0.0
5 Knowshon Moreno 24 1 0.8 10.0 5 Terrance Williams 7 1 1.3 4.3
6 Shane Vereen 7 1 0.8 1.0 6 Larry Donnell 8 1 1.1 0.1
7 Montee Ball 23 1 0.8 4.0 7 Mike Wallace 11 1 1.1 4.8
8 Marshawn Lynch 20 2 0.7 12.0 8 Jordy Nelson 14 0 1.1 7.3
9 Steven Jackson 12 0 0.6 6.0 9 Jason Witten 6 0 1.0 5.6
10 E.J. Manuel 4 1 0.6 2.0 10 Julius Thomas 8 3 1.0 5.5
11 Joique Bell 15 1 0.6 8.0 11 Hakeem Nicks 5 1 1.0 5.0
12 Geno Smith 8 0 0.5 6.0 12 Vernon Davis 6 2 0.9 8.7
13 DeMarco Murray 22 1 0.5 9.0 13 Justin Hunter 8 0 0.8 2.7
14 Justin Forsett 12 1 0.5 0.0 14 Brandon LaFell 6 0 0.8 3.7
15 Andy Dalton 4 0 0.5 2.0 15 Lamar Miller 5 1 0.8 0.5
16 Darrel Young 1 1 0.5 3.0 16 Jeremy Maclin 10 1 0.8 0.0
17 Brian Hoyer 1 0 0.5 0.0 17 Brandon Marshall 12 1 0.8 11.6
18 Isaiah Crowell 5 2 0.5 0.0 18 Randall Cobb 9 1 0.8 2.4
19 DeAngelo Williams 14 0 0.4 3.0 19 Travis Benjamin 3 1 0.7 0.3
20 Chris D. Johnson 13 0 0.4 6.0 20 Roddy White 6 1 0.7 3.8
21 Le’Veon Bell 21 1 0.4 8.0 21 Greg Olsen 11 1 0.7 6.3
22 Lamar Miller 11 0 0.4 2.0 22 Mohamed Sanu 6 0 0.7 3.8
23 Shonn Greene 15 0 0.3 4.0 23 Levine Toilolo 6 1 0.7 2.6
24 Carlos Hyde 7 1 0.3 0.0 24 Percy Harvin 7 0 0.6 0.0
25 Matthew Stafford 1 1 0.3 2.0 25 Stepfan Taylor 3 1 0.6 0.0
26 Giovani Bernard 14 0 0.3 5.0 26 Brent Celek 4 0 0.6 2.7
27 Robert Griffin III 3 0 0.3 0.0 27 Rob Gronkowski 11 1 0.6 3.7
28 Mike Tolbert 7 0 0.3 5.0 28 Dwayne Allen 5 1 0.5 0.2
29 Adrian L. Peterson 21 0 0.3 10.0 29 Corey Washington 1 0 0.5 0.0
30 Fred Jackson 7 0 0.2 9.0 30 Malcom Floyd 6 1 0.5 0.5
31 Derek Anderson 3 0 0.2 0.0 31 T.Y. Hilton 11 0 0.5 6.4
32 Pierre Thomas 7 0 0.2 2.0 32 Reggie Wayne 13 0 0.5 2.7
33 Darren Sproles 11 1 0.2 2.0 33 John Brown 5 1 0.5 0.0
34 Danny Woodhead 6 0 0.2 2.0 34 Delanie Walker 4 1 0.5 5.6
35 Stevan Ridley 8 0 0.2 7.0 35 Dennis Pitta 13 0 0.5 1.7
36 Eddie Lacy 12 0 0.2 11.0 36 Allen Hurns 8 2 0.5 0.0
37 Arian Foster 27 0 0.2 1.0 37 Chris D. Johnson 5 1 0.5 1.9
38 LeSean McCoy 21 0 0.2 9.0 38 Anthony Fasano 6 1 0.5 3.2
39 Jake Locker 4 0 0.2 2.0 39 Joe Morgan 3 0 0.5 0.0
40 LeGarrette Blount 4 1 0.1 7.0 40 Kenbrell Thompkins 9 0 0.4 5.1
41 Jacquizz Rodgers 6 1 0.1 2.0 41 Mike Evans 9 0 0.4 0.0
42 James Starks 7 0 0.1 3.0 42 Brian Hartline 4 0 0.4 3.2
43 Reggie Bush 9 0 0.1 4.0 43 Coby Fleener 8 0 0.4 4.5
44 Terrance West 16 0 0.1 0.0 44 Bobby Rainey 2 1 0.4 0.9
45 Dexter McCluster 9 0 0.1 0.0 45 Greg Jennings 7 1 0.4 3.5
46 Trent Richardson 6 0 0.1 3.0 46 Travis Kelce 5 0 0.4 0.0
47 Jonathan Dwyer 7 0 0.1 0.0 47 Larry Fitzgerald 4 0 0.4 9.2
48 Bobby Rainey 4 0 0.1 5.0 48 Eric Decker 7 0 0.4 9.9
49 Ryan Mathews 12 1 0.1 6.0 49 Jermaine Kearse 2 0 0.4 4.2
50 Frank Gore 16 0 0.1 9.0 50 Zach Ertz 4 1 0.4 3.0

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL

  • CPJ

    Hope we’re getting a week 2 update tomorrow