You should be buying low on the Dolphins
Every week I take a look at the top performers in weighted opportunity and this week one team jumped out to me as more interesting than the rest — the Miami Dolphins. They’re coming off a bye week where they fired their head coach. Their season has been a mess from a performance standpoint, but there’s still plenty of fantasy goodness to be had in this lineup if they can find their stride.
The Dolphins have been a very pass-heavy team so far as they have called a pass on 73 percent of their plays. Now, this is mostly due to the fact that 64 percent of their plays have been when the team is trailing by seven or more points. That said, Ryan Tannehill, Jarvis Landry, and Jordan Cameron all have scored very well in opportunity index this year (as you’ll see below) and the big, buy-low opportunity is Lamar Miller who has been inexplicably buried in this offense so far. Last year, Miller ranked in the top 20 among running backs and this year he’s barely sniffing the top 50 and ranking among the James Starks-type players of the league.
I’m buying low on this offense as I can’t see them being this dysfunctional for a full 17 weeks.
Opportunity Index (OI) is a metric that measures the quality of a player’s opportunity (QB completions plus rushes, RB/WR/TE pass targets plus rushes) versus the quantity of opportunity. Each opportunity is weighted by likelihood to score fantasy points and then adjusted to the position average to get one, clean number where 0 percent is league average and anything greater is above league average and vice versa.
George Fitopoulos is a writer for PFF Fantasy and can be reached on Twitter @PigskinProf.