Week 14 Fantasy Football Mailbag

Throughout the 2012-2013 NFL season, I will be answering some questions that come my way on Twitter in a mailbag. Sometimes, Twitter questions require more than 140 characters to get to the reasoning behind the answer. With Week 14 upon us, let’s take a look at what people are asking:

1) Need QB advice, Eli or Matty Ice? – @weewee2285

Despite his 5 interceptions debacle the other week, Matt Ryan is the answer here. Eli Manning has thrown just six touchdowns in the last seven weeks. In that same stretch of time, Ryan has thrown nine touchdowns, including two three-touchdown performances. Ryan has also thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last six, while E. Manning has thrown for 300 yards just once in the last seven weeks. Although both quarterbacks have high PFF grades (Ryan third with 31.3; E. Manning sixth with 26.1), neither quarterback has been special as of late.

Take a look at their season stats side-by-side:

Ryan leads Manning in every majory category. Despite having a superior aDOT (9.9 vs. 8.5), Manning has 400 less yards. That’s because Ryan has had more drop-backs (and, subsequently, attempts and completions) and has a much higher rate of completion.

There have been many more questions surrounding E. Manning this year than Ryan. Ryan’s ability to rack up the yardage and Atlanta’s willingness to let him air it out – he has attempted at least 35 passes in seven games this season – mean that he is the better option to lead your team into the fantasy playoffs.

2) I made the playoffs! Now I’m in trouble. ½ PPR league, need a running back. Pick 2: Turner, Sproles, A. Green, Dwyer, B. Powell, or P. Thomas. Thoughts? – @FalvoPS01

I would go with Turner and Sproles. I believe that once you get to the playoffs, you really shouldn’t take too many risks. Neither of these two guys has been spectacular, but both are in the top-24 in PPR leagues among running backs.

Turner is always a threat to score, while Sproles is always good for some PPR points, even if he doesn’t find the endzone. I’m assuming that Turner and Sproles were the running backs that carried you in to the playoffs, so why switch it up now? Don’t outsmart yourself come playoff time. Only take risks when the potential payoff is game changing. None of your running backs have that kind of upside.

Alex Green and Pierre Thomas both play for teams that refuse to run the ball once they get inside the 10. Powell plays for a team that is lucky to get inside the 10. And Dwyer plays for one of the most inconsistent running teams in the game today (in terms of who gets the carries).

3) Can Brandon Lloyd finally have a good game with the absence of Edelman – @RealJESSELYNCH

If you, like me, are lucky enough to have to ask this question, then take a moment to thank the other players on your fantasy football squad for carrying Lloyd’s sorry butt to the playoffs. That’s a little harsh considering he has actually contributed to your team, but said contribution has been in uniquely limited.

Take a look at Lloyd’s production over the last four weeks, which have been especially disappointing for owners:

Everything has been going downhill for the last four weeks. His targets seemed to have found their peak, while his receptions and yardage spiral down; and his touchdown rate can’t get any lower. I don’t think that Edeleman’s absence will have too much of an impact on Lloyd or the Patriots offense in general. Lloyd’s production has been steady throughout the season, which includes major  injuries of both Hernandez and Gronkowski. Edelman’s injury won’t change much except for an additional target or two.

If you have other options on the bench, but are afraid to bench Lloyd simply because he’s a starting receiver on the Patriots, I urge you to go with the other guy. And don’t be afraid of starting a guy with a bad fantasy reputation in Lloyd’s spot, like Kenny Britt or Michael Crabtree. With that being said, if you are stuck with Lloyd, you can rest easy knowing he will still have the opportunity for a five-reception, 60-yard game. Stats like that won’t win you a fantasy championship, but it’s much better than a zero.

4) Shall I pickup the Pats D/ST to have in back pocket? – @BigRaguWorld

Considering the Patriots play the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, I would definitely have them on my bench just in case I made it to the championship game. Their games this week against the Texans and next week against the 49ers are not the greatest matchups, but if you can stash them away and make the championship, you will reap the benefits of a solid D/ST performance when it matters most.