[Editor's note: you can also find this article, along with the rest of Mike's work, in our PFF Fantasy section.]
Albert Einstein once said that compound interest is “the most powerful force in the universe.” Although the most powerful force in football is obviously the CBA, Touchdown Regression can’t be too far behind.
Back in November (eight weeks into the 2010 season), I wrote a piece that investigated 22 players with abnormally high or low TD rates. I checked up on that piece in December and the results were telling: a 95% success rate. In January, with the NFL regular season in the books, I did a final assessment, which showed a 91% success rate on the season. I went on to investigate the players involved in the 2010 test and followed up by making a few predictions for 2011.
Today, I’ll be adding to the project by taking a look at severely high and low touchdown rates from the last three seasons at the wide receiver and tight end positions. I’ve found that many players become extremely over or underrated (in fantasy and in real life) after a season in which their touchdown rate was abnormal. History shows that this is a mistake.
To start the process, we need a sample size. I’ll be using any wide receivers and tight ends with 40+ receptions in a season since 2008.
In 2008, 86 WR/TE caught 40+ balls
In 2009, 88 WR/TE caught 40+ balls
In 2010, 94 WR/TE caught 40+ balls
These samples include playoff games. Since we are focusing on a rate stat, we can use the playoff games. This will allow an even larger sample size, which is what we want.
Going Down
Next, we will pull out the players in those samples who put up a 13.0% or higher touchdown rate. Considering the league average TD rate for wide receivers and tight ends is just below 8%, this would be considered a rather high rate. Over the last three seasons, 40 players fit the bill, but 19 of them were during the 2010 season. This gives us 21 players we can investigate.
Year | Player | Pos | Rec | TD% | Next Rec | Next TD% | Change |
2009 | Visanthe Shiancoe | TE | 61 | 19.7% | 47 | 4.3% | -15.4% |
2008 | Kevin Walter | WR | 60 | 13.3% | 53 | 3.8% | -9.6% |
2008 | Bernard Berrian | WR | 50 | 14.0% | 67 | 6.0% | -8.0% |
2008 | Calvin Johnson | WR | 78 | 15.4% | 67 | 7.5% | -7.9% |
2009 | Robert Meachem | WR | 49 | 18.4% | 47 | 10.6% | -7.7% |
2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 109 | 13.8% | 90 | 6.7% | -7.1% |
2009 | John Carlson | TE | 50 | 14.0% | 35 | 8.6% | -5.4% |
2008 | Terrell Owens | WR | 69 | 14.5% | 55 | 9.1% | -5.4% |
2009 | Lee Evans | WR | 44 | 15.9% | 37 | 10.8% | -5.1% |
2009 | Vernon Davis | TE | 78 | 16.7% | 56 | 12.5% | -4.2% |
2009 | DeSean Jackson | WR | 65 | 15.4% | 49 | 12.2% | -3.1% |
2008 | Justin Gage | WR | 44 | 13.6% | 28 | 10.7% | -2.9% |
2009 | Miles Austin | WR | 92 | 13.0% | 69 | 10.1% | -2.9% |
2009 | Roy E. Williams | WR | 43 | 16.3% | 37 | 13.5% | -2.8% |
2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 126 | 15.1% | 109 | 13.8% | -1.3% |
2008 | Randy Moss | WR | 69 | 15.9% | 88 | 14.8% | -1.2% |
2008 | Vincent Jackson | WR | 61 | 13.1% | 75 | 12.0% | -1.1% |
2009 | Greg Olsen | TE | 59 | 13.6% | 47 | 12.8% | -0.8% |
2009 | Fred Davis | TE | 48 | 14.6% | 21 | 14.3% | -0.3% |
2009 | Randy Moss | WR | 88 | 14.8% | 28 | 17.9% | 3.1% |
2008 | Visanthe Shiancoe | TE | 43 | 16.3% | 61 | 19.7% | 3.4% |
The chart above shows each of our 21 players' reception total and TD rate during the season noted in column 1. ‘Next Rec’ and ‘Next TD%’ refer to the reception total and TD rate the player put up the next season. Finally, we have the ‘Change’ column, which shows us the difference in the player’s TD rate from Year 1 to Year 2.
The results are very telling. 19 of the 21 players (90%) saw a drop in TD rate in Year 2. The only exceptions were Randy Moss, whose sample size dropped by 60 receptions, and Visanthe Shiancoe, who enjoyed a ridiculous TD rate with Brett Favre under center in 2009. Still, Shiancoe regressed in epic style the following season, dropping by 15.4% to 4.3% in 2010. Notice that only six (29%) of the players managed to put back-to-back 13.0%+ TD rate seasons together, and 11 (50%) saw a drop of at least 3%. It’s worth noting that 16 (76%) of the players did manage an above-average TD rate the following season, but remember that our goal here is to determine how easy/hard it is to maintain the “extremely” high TD rates. Clearly, it’s almost impossible.
Going Up
Next up, we’ll take a look at players who suffered a 3.0% or lower TD rate. As mentioned, the league average rate at these positions is right around 8%, so anything under 3% is considered to be poor/unlucky. 26 players fit the bill since 2008, four of which qualified in 2010. That gives us a sample of 22, but notice that five of the players managed five or fewer receptions in Year 2. That isn’t quite enough to give us a fair assessment of their TD rate, so we will eliminate them and focus on the other 17.
Year | Player | Pos | Rec | TD% | Next Rec | Next TD% | Change |
2009 | Malcom Floyd | WR | 48 | 2.1% | 37 | 16.2% | 14.1% |
2008 | Owen Daniels | TE | 70 | 2.9% | 40 | 12.5% | 9.6% |
2008 | Jeremy Shockey | TE | 50 | 0.0% | 55 | 9.1% | 9.1% |
2009 | Bo Scaife | TE | 45 | 2.2% | 36 | 11.1% | 8.9% |
2009 | Jason Witten | TE | 108 | 1.9% | 94 | 9.6% | 7.7% |
2008 | Chris Cooley | TE | 83 | 1.2% | 29 | 6.9% | 5.7% |
2009 | Greg Camarillo | WR | 50 | 0.0% | 20 | 5.0% | 5.0% |
2008 | Steve Smith | WR | 59 | 1.7% | 107 | 6.5% | 4.8% |
2009 | Mike Thomas | WR | 48 | 2.1% | 66 | 6.1% | 4.0% |
2009 | Davone Bess | WR | 76 | 2.6% | 80 | 6.3% | 3.6% |
2008 | Zach J. Miller | TE | 56 | 1.8% | 66 | 4.5% | 2.8% |
2009 | Michael Jenkins | WR | 50 | 2.0% | 47 | 4.3% | 2.3% |
2008 | Josh Reed | WR | 56 | 1.8% | 27 | 3.7% | 1.9% |
2009 | Danny Amendola | WR | 43 | 2.3% | 85 | 3.5% | 1.2% |
2008 | Davone Bess | WR | 56 | 1.8% | 76 | 2.6% | 0.8% |
2008 | Wes Welker | WR | 111 | 2.7% | 123 | 3.3% | 0.5% |
2009 | Antwaan Randle El | WR | 50 | 0.0% | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Not coincidentally, we see the same trend here. None (0%) of the players saw a drop in TD rate and all but one (95%) saw an increase. Our only exception is Antwaan Randle El, who defied the odds by going two full seasons (74 receptions) without a touchdown. Only two (12%) of the players managed back-to-back seasons under 3.0% and nine (53%) enjoyed and increase of at least 4%. Only five (29%) players in our sample ended up with a TD rate above league average in Year 2, but that is to be expected.
2011 Losers
Year | Player | Pos | Rec | TD% | Proj TD% |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | 46 | 21.7% | 15.0% |
2010 | Kenny Britt | WR | 42 | 21.4% | 10.0% |
2010 | Dwayne Bowe | WR | 72 | 20.8% | 14.0% |
2010 | Antonio Gates | TE | 50 | 20.0% | 12.0% |
2010 | Marcedes Lewis | TE | 58 | 17.2% | 13.0% |
2010 | Mike A. Williams | WR | 64 | 17.2% | 14.0% |
2010 | Mike Sims-Walker | WR | 43 | 16.3% | UFA |
2010 | Calvin Johnson | WR | 77 | 15.6% | 14.0% |
2010 | Mike Wallace | WR | 73 | 15.1% | 14.0% |
2010 | Mario Manningham | WR | 60 | 15.0% | 12.0% |
2010 | Greg Jennings | WR | 97 | 14.4% | 12.0% |
2010 | Brandon Lloyd | WR | 77 | 14.3% | 14.0% |
2010 | Nate Washington | WR | 42 | 14.3% | 12.0% |
2010 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | 79 | 13.9% | 14.0% |
2010 | Austin Collie | WR | 58 | 13.8% | 12.0% |
2010 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | 73 | 13.7% | 12.0% |
2010 | Dez Bryant | WR | 45 | 13.3% | 13.0% |
2010 | Santonio Holmes | WR | 61 | 13.1% | 12.0% |
2010 | Aaron Hernandez | TE | 46 | 13.0% | 12.0% |
A whopping 19 players enjoyed Touchdown rates that were 13.0% or higher in 2010. If history tells us anything, it’s that near 90% of these players will see a drop in 2011. Included in the ‘Proj TD%’ column is the touchdown rate my 2011 projections currently show for each player in the list. Probability tells us to expect plenty of regression here, which is why 18 of the 19 players show a decrease.
2011 Winners
Year | Player | Pos | Rec | TD% | Proj TD% |
2010 | Brian Hartline | WR | 43 | 2.3% | 4.0% |
2010 | Tony Scheffler | TE | 45 | 2.2% | 6.0% |
2010 | Steve Breaston | WR | 47 | 2.1% | 4.0% |
2010 | Chansi Stuckey | WR | 40 | 0.0% | UFA |
The NFL is becoming more and more of a passing league each year and this project just adds fuel to the fire. After 23 players managed a 3.0% or lower TD rate during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, only four suffered the fate in 2010. Expect an increase from each of these players in 2011.
Final Thoughts
Studying this data every day, it becomes progressively more apparent that Touchdown Rate is predictable … to a degree. The league will always have possession receivers who consistently put up low TD rates and big-play/redzone receivers who manage high rates. The rest will almost always end up in the 6-10% range. You’ll have outliers, but the stats don’t lie. A statistical test that manages a 90%+ success rate is one that should be strongly considered in future projections.
Extreme touchdown rates are all but impossible to maintain … a sign that regression is, well, maybe just as powerful as the CBA.
Follow Mike on Twitter: @PFF_MikeClay