Top Draftstreet Football Values for Week 12
We were hit and miss with our Draftstreet values last week. While Carson Palmer and Zach Miller had outstanding outings, the likes of Andre Ellington and Bernard Pierce struggled getting anything going. Such is the case when relying on past performances, indicators based on level of competition and conjecture for the following week.
Either way, we are back at it again to help provide you with the best possible Draftstreet fantasy values as we enter Week 12 of the 2013 NFL season.
In what has been a weekly article here at Pro Football Focus, we will be providing readers with the top Draftstreet football values in weekly leagues.
For the purposes of these articles, I will utilize Draftstreet cap numbers and base them off total cap numbers of $100,000 per team.
If you want a chance to win $2.5 million in guaranteed prizes on Draftstreet this year, you are going to have to get creative. The idea here is to find values up and down the board to fill out your weekly rosters so that you are able to actually pick up a couple of the elite fantasy options that remain in Week 8.
As a reminder, check out their qualifier league that enables 40 Players qualify for the Championship Event.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants ($12,023)
Any quarterback going up against the Dallas Cowboys for the rest of the season needs to be considered a must start in fantasy football. Monte Kiffin’s unit is giving up nearly 350 total yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. For his part, Manning has picked his game up considerably during the Giants four-game winning streak. While he has put up only three touchdowns, Manning has been intercepted just twice during that span after throwing 15 in his first six games of the season.
As the 14th-most expensive Draftstreet quarterback this week, there is no reason to pass up on Manning. He’s likely to provide top-seven production against a defense that is on pace to be among the worst against the pass in the history of the NFL. Just think about that last fact for a second.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Tennessee Titans ($10,481)
Fitzpatrick has been darn good since taking over for Jake Locker a couple weeks ago. He has put up over 500 total yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two games. Interestingly enough, the veteran did extremely well last week against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks in the top half of the NFL against fantasy quarterbacks. He ended the week just outside of QB1 territory at No. 13 overall. Fitzpatrick now takes on an Oakland Raiders defense that we grade out in the bottom 10 of the NFL against the pass and has giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
At just over 10 percent of your total cap value, Fitzpatrick represents tremendous value here. He’s Draftstreet’s 26th-most expensive fantasy quarterback this week and can provide you top-12 value.
Draftreet guarantees 2-3 qualifiers per week. Week 1 through Week 14 of the NFL season. With Fitzpatrick going up against less-than-stellar competition and in the midst of a nice stretch, he could easily help you earn a qualifier this week.
Andre Brown, RB, New York Giants ($10,680)
Fresh after missing the first half of the season, Brown has tallied 212 yards on 52 touches in his first two games since returning from injury. Brown’s best performance of the two games came in Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders when he put up the sixth-best fantasy performance among running backs. Oakland ranked in the top half of the NFL against fantasy running backs at that point.
Fortunately for Brown’ owners, he will be lining up against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has yielded the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and is our 30th-ranked run defense through 11 weeks. Draftstreet currently has Brown as a bottom-tier RB1 option, but recent production and level of competition indicates he can easily crack the top seven.
Rashad Jennings, RB, Oakland Raiders ($10,860)
Even when Darren McFadden returns to full health (whenever that might be), Oakland has to be giving some thought to keep riding the Jennings’ train. The veteran backup has put up 414 total yards and two scores over the course of the last three games. In fact, he’s the fifth-ranked fantasy running back over the past two weeks.
The interesting dynamic here is that Jennings went up against two defenses in the New York Giants and Houston Texans that we grade out in the top 10 of the NFL against the run. He will now take on the Tennessee Titans, who have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Heck, even Donald Brown put up 94 total yards and two scores against the Titans last week. As the 10th-most expensive running back in Draftstreet leagues, Jennings provides top-three upside.
Qualifiers range from $22 to $420 in Draftstreet’s Championship Leagues. Why not take a shot on a talented veteran running back who has played extremely well as of late and will be facing a weak run defense?
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers ($5,463)
Williams hasn’t necessarily been a consistent fantasy option this season. He’s been a bottom-tier RB2 throughout the first 11 weeks, occasionally popping into the top 10. This is one of the primary reasons that it’s important to look at weekly matchups when deciding who to promote from your bench in standard fantasy leagues. Fortunately, Draftstreet enables us to pick up players on a weekly basis without having to keep them on the roster for the duration of the season. Williams, who is still averaging over 4.5 yards per touch, will be going up against a Miami Dolphins defense that has yielded the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and is coming off a four-game stretch that has seen it give up over 600 yards on the ground.
At just over five percent of your cap, Williams is valued as nothing more than a decent FLEX option. With that said, he provides mid-tier RB2 upside. This is a low-risk, high-reward possibility.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($4,574)
Ingram might not have had a great fantasy outing last week against the San Francisco 49ers (six rushes for 25 yards), but he seems to be reborn after returning from injury midseason. He’s running a lot more physically and hitting the hole hard. This was evidenced by the career-high 160 total yards that he put up against the Dallas Cowboys the week prior. While the Saints running back-by-committee approach handcuffs the trio of players they utilize, Ingram sets up extremely well against the Atlanta Falcons this week. They rank in the bottom 11 of the NFL against the run and yield an average of 155 total yards to opposing running backs this season.
Ingram is someone you can slot into one of your FLEX positions and expect either above-average production. With that being said, Ingram’s upside is in the RB2 territory.
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($8,216)
This isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to Floyd’s breakout 193-yard performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rather it’s more about the quietly solid season the second-year pro has had in 2013. He’s catching a Cardinals’ high 62 percent of the passes thrown in his direction and has dropped a total of one pass on 67 targets throughout the season. That’s simply insane.
Floyd will be lining up against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has performed pretty well against the pass this season. With that said, he’s going to matchup against Greg Toler, who possesses a negative pass coverage grade and has allowed a 92.4 quarterback rating when thrown to. As the 26th-most expensive wide receiver in Draftstreet leagues, Floyd represent WR1 upside this week.
Aaron Dobson, WR, New England Patriots ($6,182)
Dobson is quietly on pace to tally over 800 receiving yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Despite an alarming 13.6 percent drop rate, Tom Brady seems to trust Dobson to improve in that category. He’s being targeted over five times per game over his last five outings after tallying eight total targets in his previous two games. The Marshall product is also averaging nearly 80 receiving yards in his last three games.
New England will be lining up against a Denver Broncos defense that has yielded the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Brady likely having to go tit-for-tat with Peyton Manning in what should be a high-scoring affair, New England’s receivers should be prime for breakout fantasy performances. At just over six percent of your cap, Dobson provides excellent value.
Qualifier winners receive flight and accommodations to Las Vegas on December 15th for Championship Event. Dobson may not be on your fantasy radar, but the indications are there for him to have a big game against Denver. Ride the rookie as a WR2 option and dream of a trip to the desert.
Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,894)
McCluster has pretty much been boom or bust, mostly bust, this season. He put up just 12 receptions over the course of the first six games, but has picked it up recently. He has 18 catches in the last four games, which includes a subpar two-reception performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. What makes McCluster such an interesting fantasy option is that he possesses the highest catch rate of any Chiefs’ receiver and is averaging 50 receiving yards per outing over the last four games.
Kansas City now takes on a San Diego Chargers defense that has yielded the fifth-most points to fantasy receivers and tends to struggle against the shiftier pass catchers. Even if McCluster only duplicates his production from the past four games, he’s a low-risk option at under four percent of your crap.
Mychal Rivera, TE, Oakland Raiders ($3,626)
With Matt McGloin under center last week, this rookie from Tennessee was finally utilized correctly. He had a career game with five receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown with the fellow rookie throwing the ball to him. Overall this season, Rivera is catching a ridiculous 72 percent of the passes thrown in his direction this season. While Oakland hasn’t announced a starting quarterback for Week 12, common sense seems to indicate that it will go with the hot hand. If so, McGloin will continue to rely on his safety valve at tight end. Even if Terrelle Pryor is under center, Rivera’s price tag makes him a must start, either at the TE1 or FLEX position.