Today's crazy fantasy stat: Why you should draft Drew Brees over Tom Brady
Last season, Tom Brady of the New England Patriots put up 351 fantasy points. New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees offered 319. Both finished in the top six at the position in fantasy scoring, and big totals are fairly regular for both longtime starters.
Which brings us to today’s Fantasy Stat of the Day: 2015 was the first year since 2010 that Tom Brady outscored Drew Brees in fantasy. The last five years, Brees has averaged 357.6 fantasy points a season, compared to 327.6 for Brady.
Per current average draft position on Fantasy Football Calculator, Brady is going sixth among quarterbacks in early 2016 fantasy drafts, with Brees just behind him in seventh. This despite the above stat, and despite the fact that Brady is slated to miss the season’s first four games to a suspension. Our own PFF ranks currently have Brees fifth at the position, with Brady seventh. Brady’s superior 2015 even had help, with Brees missing a game and battling a shoulder injury.
That’s not it, either. Brees is going behind Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in early drafts as well. Our own Mike Tagliere wrote that Brees will continue to outshine Roethlisberger in 2016. The above is only one piece of data, but from here, it certainly looks like Drew Brees is underrated going into 2016 drafts. His consistency is worth monitoring.
Meanwhile, Brady might be getting a little overrated; his 351 in 2015 was his second-highest total since his 2007 MVP season, and he’s finished with fewer than 310 fantasy points three times in seven seasons since (Brady missed virtually all of the 2008 season to injury), including the two seasons just before his big 2015. Off of a near-MVP season, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer is going after Brady, as are Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, who has weapons aplenty, and Oakland’s Derek Carr, who made a huge leap from his rookie year to last year, and has room to improve yet. Brady probably should be going ahead of them, even with his suspension, but considering the dropoff in overall ADP and the moderate risk Brady carries, the next guys might offer a better return on investment.