Volume is always a key component to a successful fantasy football season. In 2012, David Wilson averaged 5.0 ypc, 2.66 Yco/Att (yards after contact per attempt), and finished with six runs of 15 or more yards despite receiving just 71 carries. Volume was what kept Wilson back from being an elite fantasy contributor, and projected volume is what helped propel him into the second round of 2013 fantasy football drafts.
Projected volume and actual volume tend to differ on many occasions. Between offseason coach-speak, injuries, and concerns with pass protection, the reality is that projecting touches is a very futile exercise.
Instead of guessing, in this column every week we will take a look at snaps, touches in both the running and passing game, pass protection, and other interesting stats only available on Pro Football Focus. One game never tells the entire story, as game flow often dictates a player’s usage. However, we can gauge a lot from week one when accounting for factors like game flow and more.
Each backfield will be broken up based on overall usage, but I will only briefly touch on the backfields that haven’t changed much from the previous week. This column will focus more on timeshares and changing backfields. You can reference Week 1’s edition here, and any other previous weeks by clicking on my name under the title at the top of the page.
Evolving Backfields
Green Bay Packers
After only playing three more snaps than James Starks and DuJuan Harris combined, Eddie Lacy jumped back into a workhorse role in Week 2. Lacy (55) had 43 more snaps than Starks and Harris combined. Most importantly, this week he wasn’t pulled on passing downs when the game flow dictated an up-tempo attack. I would expect Lacy’s usage in Week 2 to be the norm and in Week 1 to be the outlier.
New England Patriots
Game flow, game flow, and some more game flow. With a huge lead, Bill Belichick turned the backfield into the Stevan Ridley show. Ridley (37) was on the field for 17 more snaps than Shane Vereen (20) despite playing 39 snaps less than him in Week 1. When the Patriots jump out to a huge lead, Ridley will be the guy you want going. When they are trailing you will look to Vereen. In close games, I still expect Vereen to edge Ridley in snaps and touches. If you don’t have a good feel for how the Patriots will fare, I advise you to simply look to the Las Vegas line.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jamaal Charles left early with a high ankle sprain, and nothing changed for Andy Reid. He still utilized just one back, and Knile Davis racked up 67-of-81 snaps after Charles’ injury. As one of the few true workhorses until Charles returns, Davis should be your top waiver wire priority.
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