For those subscribers who were active readers in 2012, you might remember that last season I wrote a weekly column breaking down the best and worst matchups for running backs. Using PFF’s grading system I was able to breakdown and pinpoint matchups along the offensive/defensive lines and between the fullbacks and tight ends/ linebackers. However, there is more to a running back’s weekly matchup including coaching tendencies, what direction a running back has success rushing to and the likelihood that a team is rushing based on the score of the game. All factors considered, I was able to predict the worst matchups at a highly successful rate while also targeting some of the breakout backs of the week.
This season I will be trying something a little different. Instead of just focusing in on the running backs, I will look into all of the different matchups in fantasy football including quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends in an attempt to pick the overall best and worst matchups of the week. Fortunately, PFF has all the tools to break down each individual matchup. Want to know how your wide receiver is going to do? Well if he lines up as a split end on 90% of his snaps, we can pinpoint which cornerback he will be matching up with for those snaps.
Of course, as was the case last season, this column will become more accurate as the season goes on and we compile more grades for the players and get a feel for tendencies and overall strengths/weaknesses of the 32 teams.
Before each new matchup projection for this week, I will revisit my prediction from last week so you all can get an idea of the process and its results. All the results will show how a player scored in a standard scoring system.
Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst options for Week 2.
Also, please feel encouraged to tweet questions at me on Twitter @PFF_DanSc or post them in the comments if you want to know any specific cornerback/wide receiver matchups for your players or if you want an idea of how your running back’s offensive line grades out or the rush defense that he faces.
Quarterbacks
The Best
Last Week: Matt Ryan – 13th-overall QB
What Happened: Even minus two projected starters in the front seven, Rob Ryan’s scheme produced pressure all day. This didn’t happen to Matt Ryan once in 2012.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Redskins
The Redskins managed to grade out as the eighth-worst defense in pass coverage in Week 1 and their opponent, the Eagles, opted to pass the ball just five times in the second half. Unproven safeties E.J. Biggers and Bacari Rambo were not tested often, but when they were the Eagles hit big plays in the passing game — Vick’s touchdown pass on the post to Desean Jackson and the touchdown to Celek up the seam. Biggers (-2.0) and Rambo (-1.0) graded out very poorly in pass coverage.
The one reason this matchup can’t be considered a total slam-dunk is due to the Redskins pass rush (+5.5) which seemed to benefit from the return or Brian Orakpo (+1.9). Remember, the Packers have a shaky offensive line especially at left tackle. Overall, the Packers should be able to take advantage of the Redskins porous safety play and hit enough chunk plays, some of which will result in touchdowns.
Machine Readout: Start him! Rodgers has a shot at scoring the most points at the quarterback position if the Redskins can keep up with the scoring and keep the Packers throwing the football.
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As always, you can follow me on Twitter @PFF_DanSc. If you have any recommendations or complaints feel free to voice them and I will do my best to accommodate them.
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