Snaps Lost: Jacksonville Jaguars
The “Snaps Lost” series is a detailed look at the playing time void created by players that have left each team this offseason, whether they were traded, cut, left in free agency, or retired.
Because each unit plays a different number of snaps over the course of the year, we have created the “Full Time Equivalent” metric. FTE is the total number of missing snaps divided by the number of plays the team ran on that side of the ball. This is an equivalent measure of how many full time players (100% snap count) the team would need to add on to make up for their offseason losses, even though very few players actually play a full snap count.
For example, if a team had 1,100 snaps on offense and then lost seven players who combined to play 2,200 snaps, their FTE would be 2.0 (2,200/1,100). This ensures that a team who lost a high volume of players only has a high FTE if those players racked up some significant playing time. FTE can only fall between zero (no players left the team) and 11 (fire everyone!) for each side of the ball.
Each team will have a ranking following their FTE, with the first-ranked team in each category (offense, defense, and total) representing the team with the smallest portion of their playing time in need of replacement.
A few caveats before getting into the good stuff:
-Suspensions and injuries that may limit 2015 snap counts are not considered.
-Biggest Losses are purely in terms of snap count, not necessarily in terms of impact.
-All snap counts are Regular Season only.
Overall FTE Lost: 4.56, 11th
FTE Lost: 1.76, 7th
Biggest Losses: Cecil Shorts (753), Jordan Todman (316) Will Ta’ufo’ou (230), Jacques McClendon (211)
Summary – Shorts accounts for over 40% of the Jaguars’ offensive FTE loss despite missing three games. He’s moved on to Houston, and with Justin Blackmon’s future in the league in a perilous place, the Jaguars have completely turned over their receiving corps in just the last few years. Other players to depart included second options like Todman and McClendon as well as Ta’ufo’ou at fullback.
Replacement Plan – Shorts’ snaps will most likely be divvied up among the same guys that played last season, as Allen Robinson and Marquise Lee each played just north of 500 snaps. The Jags selected T.J. Yeldon out of Alabama in the second round, and he should more than cover for Todman in the running game. McClendon probably wouldn’t have seen the field even if he had been brought back, and Ta’ufo’ou, despite showing well as a run blocker, is of a dying breed that can be replaced by a few changes in personnel packages.
FTE Lost: 2.80, 16th
Biggest Losses: J.T. Thomas (729), Geno Hayes (587), Red Bryant (536), Alan Ball (508)
Summary – Thomas turned in a rather poor season (-14.8) and yet was rewarded with a solid contract and a nice guarantee from the Giants. Conversely, Hayes did well on his limited snaps, and as of yet remains unsigned. Cut just one year into a four-year deal, Bryant likewise remains a free agent despite a strong year in run defense (+12.8), even if he offers little as a pass rusher. Ball played reasonably well, but Jacksonville decided to go with youth this offseason, so he headed off to the Windy City.
Replacement Plan – Thomas and Hayes combined for 1.25 FTE Lost, so even if free agent signing Dan Skuta becomes an every-down player, they’ll still need more. Fortunately both Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny could see a dramatic workload increase, as the latter returns from missing nine games due to injury. The recently-signed Jared Odrick may replace Bryant’s snaps even if he doesn’t quite fill the same role and position as Bryant, though he has played outside some with the Dolphins. An increased workload for third-year man Ryan Davis should be the way to go, as his +14.8 pass rushing grade was highest on the team last year. Former Packer Davon House inked a nice deal with the Jags and should cover for Ball’s 508 snaps with ease.