1. RB C.J. Spiller (Available in Round 1)
6.2
Consider that Spiller has a career 6.2 yards-per-carry mark on attempts between the tackles. That’s not a typo. I said between the tackles. Couple that with a 4.7 YPC on carries to the outside and you have elite production.
Oh, and one more thing. Spiller is commonly listed with a red flag (or at least a yellow) to account for injury risk. Spiller has appeared in 32 of 32 possible games for Buffalo over the last two seasons. There’s no justification for downgrading him related to inside running or fear of injury. He’s a strong early first-round pick.
2. WR Lance Moore (Available in Round 10)
14.1
After putting up no better than a 12.1 yards-per-reception mark during his first six seasons in the NFL, Moore’s YPR skyrocketed to 16.0 in 2012. Those skeptical of Moore are pointing to this as evidence of impending regression back to where he’s been the last half decade.
Not so fast.
Consider that Moore’s 2012 post-catch production was actually the lowest it’s been in five years. The reason for Moore’s YPR boost was more down-field usage. His average depth of target (aDOT) increased to a career-high 14.1 in 2012, which was up from 10.7 in 2011. It’s also worth noting that Moore averaged 8.6 touchdowns-per-season during his previous three full seasons heading into 2012. He scored “only” six times last year. With Moore’s role shaping up to be the same as it was one year ago, he’s a value pick in Round 10.
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