For a football stats nerd, there is nothing more enjoyable than scrolling through the PFF Signature Stats pages. My favorites include pass block efficiency, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, quarterback time to throw, and yards in the air on dropped passes. OK, so I have a lot of favorites.
One set of advanced statistics I have not spent enough time on is passing under pressure. Offensive line play is critical to actual success in the sport, but while I could tell you which units were solid and which were substandard, I apply that understanding haphazardly to my projections.
For example, I know that the Bears’ perennially porous line has been a factor in Jay Cutler’s 63 interceptions thrown since 2009, and I know I can expect that to continue until they make a real effort to address its weaknesses, but what of his other numbers? I know that Kevin Kolb had terrible protection on the Cardinals and figures to have excellent protection on the Bills, but aside from an increased likelihood for good health, what does that mean for his production? Fortunately, the Signature Stats provide the means for some actual research.
I decided to estimate how productive passers were when under pressure and when well-protected. The Signature Stats provide completions, touchdowns, and interceptions while under pressure, and so it is easy to subtract them out of a player’s overall line to get the same numbers without pressure. I do not have yards thrown under pressure, so I will just estimate them based on the number of completions and overall yards per completion. I am ignoring scrambles in this exercise, but I think it is fair to assume the mobile quarterbacks are significantly more productive when pressured than I’m showing because of their legs.
First, here are the most productive passers when pressured, based on estimated points per dropback:
Under Pressure | ||||||
Name | Dropbacks | Comp. | Est. Yards | TD | INT | Est. PPDB |
Ben Roethlisberger | 168 | 74 | 851 | 11 | 3 | 0.43 |
Blaine Gabbert | 101 | 41 | 421 | 4 | 1 | 0.31 |
Aaron Rodgers | 191 | 60 | 695 | 8 | 1 | 0.30 |
Carson Palmer | 189 | 84 | 978 | 7 | 5 | 0.30 |
Joe Flacco | 185 | 68 | 819 | 7 | 3 | 0.30 |
Robert Griffin III | 162 | 59 | 733 | 5 | 2 | 0.28 |
Matt Ryan | 194 | 80 | 895 | 7 | 6 | 0.27 |
Drew Brees | 200 | 80 | 981 | 7 | 7 | 0.27 |
Matt Schaub | 169 | 72 | 825 | 4 | 2 | 0.27 |
Tony Romo | 217 | 86 | 992 | 8 | 9 | 0.25 |
Jay Cutler | 187 | 75 | 892 | 6 | 7 | 0.24 |
Tom Brady | 167 | 55 | 662 | 4 | 2 | 0.23 |
Josh Freeman | 205 | 70 | 930 | 7 | 9 | 0.23 |
Matthew Stafford | 210 | 79 | 902 | 5 | 4 | 0.23 |
Sam Bradford | 198 | 64 | 722 | 5 | 2 | 0.23 |
Russell Wilson | 187 | 54 | 668 | 5 | 3 | 0.22 |
Cam Newton | 203 | 61 | 843 | 4 | 4 | 0.21 |
Ryan Tannehill | 163 | 62 | 724 | 3 | 4 | 0.20 |
Andrew Luck | 268 | 81 | 1045 | 7 | 8 | 0.20 |
Alex D. Smith | 72 | 21 | 238 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 |
Nick Foles | 108 | 43 | 454 | 1 | 1 | 0.19 |
Eli Manning | 168 | 69 | 849 | 3 | 8 | 0.18 |
Kevin Kolb | 92 | 32 | 343 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 |
Colin Kaepernick | 91 | 32 | 427 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 |
Peyton Manning | 121 | 50 | 582 | 1 | 4 | 0.16 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 151 | 49 | 544 | 4 | 7 | 0.16 |
Philip Rivers | 224 | 73 | 779 | 4 | 8 | 0.14 |
Andy Dalton | 153 | 37 | 413 | 3 | 5 | 0.12 |
Michael Vick | 173 | 53 | 614 | 2 | 6 | 0.12 |
Christian Ponder | 176 | 52 | 509 | 3 | 6 | 0.12 |
Brandon Weeden | 155 | 51 | 581 | 2 | 7 | 0.11 |
Matt Cassel | 92 | 26 | 290 | 2 | 5 | 0.10 |
Jake Locker | 107 | 25 | 308 | 2 | 5 | 0.10 |
Mark Sanchez | 145 | 44 | 516 | 0 | 4 | 0.09 |
John Skelton | 76 | 25 | 260 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 59 | 22 | 218 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 |
Chad Henne | 131 | 34 | 427 | 0 | 6 | 0.04 |
Brady Quinn | 86 | 21 | 214 | 0 | 6 | -0.04 |
5944 | 2064 | 24143 | 144 | 170 | 0.20 |
Ben Roethlisberger outpaces the rest of the position by a fair margin. Surprisingly, Blaine Gabbert is second, and the disparity between he and Chad Henne could influence their chances of starting. Most elite quarterbacks are nearer the top of the list, but they don’t really stand out. Nearer the bottom of the list, we find Kevin Kolb, as expected. In addition, this explains Philip Rivers’ fantasy downfall. Only Andrew Luck saw more pressured dropbacks than Rivers, and he did not handle them well.
Here are the most productive passers without pressure:
No Pressure | ||||||
Name | Dropbacks | Comp. | Est. Yards | TD | INT | Est. PPDB |
Peyton Manning | 488 | 350 | 4077 | 36 | 7 | 0.60 |
Russell Wilson | 290 | 198 | 2450 | 21 | 7 | 0.58 |
Drew Brees | 499 | 342 | 4196 | 36 | 12 | 0.58 |
Aaron Rodgers | 448 | 311 | 3600 | 31 | 7 | 0.57 |
Tom Brady | 502 | 346 | 4165 | 30 | 6 | 0.55 |
Colin Kaepernick | 168 | 104 | 1387 | 10 | 2 | 0.54 |
Alex D. Smith | 184 | 132 | 1499 | 11 | 3 | 0.53 |
Philip Rivers | 363 | 265 | 2827 | 22 | 7 | 0.52 |
Eli Manning | 396 | 252 | 3099 | 23 | 7 | 0.51 |
Matt Ryan | 469 | 342 | 3824 | 25 | 8 | 0.51 |
Robert Griffin III | 304 | 198 | 2462 | 15 | 3 | 0.50 |
Josh Freeman | 398 | 236 | 3135 | 20 | 8 | 0.48 |
Cam Newton | 352 | 219 | 3026 | 15 | 8 | 0.47 |
Andy Dalton | 440 | 292 | 3256 | 24 | 11 | 0.46 |
Chad Henne | 217 | 132 | 1657 | 11 | 5 | 0.46 |
Kevin Kolb | 125 | 77 | 826 | 7 | 2 | 0.46 |
Tony Romo | 476 | 339 | 3911 | 20 | 10 | 0.45 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 324 | 210 | 2414 | 15 | 5 | 0.45 |
Matt Schaub | 404 | 278 | 3183 | 18 | 10 | 0.44 |
Joe Flacco | 386 | 249 | 2998 | 15 | 7 | 0.43 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 415 | 257 | 2856 | 20 | 9 | 0.42 |
Michael Vick | 245 | 151 | 1748 | 10 | 4 | 0.42 |
Andrew Luck | 435 | 258 | 3329 | 16 | 10 | 0.41 |
Carson Palmer | 406 | 261 | 3040 | 15 | 9 | 0.40 |
Jay Cutler | 309 | 180 | 2141 | 13 | 7 | 0.40 |
Sam Bradford | 407 | 264 | 2980 | 16 | 11 | 0.40 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 182 | 116 | 1149 | 7 | 2 | 0.38 |
Christian Ponder | 379 | 248 | 2426 | 15 | 6 | 0.38 |
Jake Locker | 263 | 152 | 1874 | 8 | 6 | 0.36 |
Matthew Stafford | 566 | 356 | 4065 | 15 | 13 | 0.35 |
Brandon Weeden | 404 | 246 | 2804 | 12 | 10 | 0.35 |
Mark Sanchez | 351 | 202 | 2367 | 13 | 14 | 0.34 |
Nick Foles | 184 | 118 | 1245 | 5 | 4 | 0.34 |
Ryan Tannehill | 369 | 220 | 2570 | 9 | 9 | 0.33 |
Blaine Gabbert | 208 | 121 | 1241 | 5 | 5 | 0.29 |
Brady Quinn | 145 | 91 | 927 | 2 | 2 | 0.28 |
Matt Cassel | 221 | 135 | 1506 | 4 | 7 | 0.28 |
John Skelton | 142 | 84 | 872 | 2 | 6 | 0.22 |
12864 | 8332 | 97133 | 592 | 269 | 0.44 |
The top of this list is more similar to the perceived elite quarterbacks. Of course, Brady, Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning are at the top. New stars Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Robert Griffin III are there as well. John Skelton and Brady Quinn are at the bottom of both lists.
For Philip Rivers, the key to a fantasy comeback seems clear. He was more productive than Matt Ryan without pressure last season. However, the Chargers were rated as the fourth-worst pass-blocking line at -27.2 overall. With the additions of Max Starks and first-round tackle D.J. Fluker, I believe Rivers is again worth a flier as a QB2.
For point of reference, Alex Smith goes from the 49ers’ line rated +32.9 in pass blocking to the Chiefs’ line rated +8.3. Kevin Kolb goes from the Cardinals’ line rated -56.3 to the Bills rated +45.2. That could be a huge difference in fantasy. Kolb was held to six games last season with injuries, but he was 20th in overall points per dropback. If he can make it through a full season — a big if, if for no other reason than the presence of E.J. Manuel — and improve on his 2012 rate of 42 percent pressured dropbacks, then he could easily become a solid QB2.
Finally, Andy Dalton was solid with 0.46 points per dropback without pressure but a poor 0.12 points per dropback while pressured. The Bengals were second behind the Broncos with a +53.5 pass blocking line. Dalton’s fantasy success is more the product of his situation than his actual abilities. In a redraft league, that can work, but a decline in his offensive line could expose him. I would look to trade him in dynasty.
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Scott Spratt was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He also writes for The Hardball Times and contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt