Week 6 of the NFL season was a rough week for a lot of folks, and unfortunately, we were no exception. Our record after six weeks sits at 18-11-1 (62.1 percent). We’re currently 12-6 (66.7 percent) on spread picks and 6-5-1 (54.5 percent) on totals. We’re 37-31-2 (54.4 percent) against the spread overall through five weeks, and on over/unders we’re 45-34-2 (57.0 percent).
While last week was littered with high spreads, at this point there are no teams that are more than a touchdown favorite. We’re going to pick a Dolphins over for the second time this season (we were unsuccessful doing so in Week 2), while picking against the Rams against the spread for the third time (we’re 2-0 on our first two such picks). Indianapolis as a home underdog worked for us in Week 3, as did the Eagles with a healthy spread in Week 5. We’re dipping back in to those wells this week too.
Each of the five feature picks below comes with a point/counterpoint analysis, with a deeper dive into our “Lock of the Week” on the PFF Preview Podcast. The Lock of the Week has hit four of the first six weeks so far (66.7 percent). For the remainder of our spread and over/under picks, check out PFF Elite and the PFF Elite Facebook Group. For our thoughts on Thursday night’s spread and over/under, follow us at @PFF_George and @PFF_EricEager on Twitter each week.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in London
Pick: Rams 24-22 (Cardinals cover)
Point (George Chahrouri): Like every Los Angeles hipster, the Rams are taking their unbridled creativity and lack of direction to London in search of better Instagram posts and a new reason to swindle their parents' hard-earned credit. Carson Palmer is fresh off a dominant performance where he completed 11-of-12 throws that traveled 10-plus yards downfield. Bruce Arians and his new look offensive line have given new RB Adrian Peterson a creative streak that would make even the most adventurous food blogger jealous. Peterson gained 2.96 yards before contact per carry and forced four missed tackles, both of which were the most by a Cardinals RB this season. Palmer parlayed the newfound running game into success through the air, completing 80.0 percent of his throws using play action. The Rams defense put the clamps on Blake Bortles last week, meaning absolutely nothing, and they continued to give ground against the run. On the season, the Rams are allowing 3.24 yards after contact per carry and are allowing a passer rating of 133.3 against play action (both second to last in the NFL). Give me the BA Kangol and hold the inspirational social media post telling me about the arduous journey for creative bliss.
Counterpoint (Eric Eager): While the Cardinals bounced back a week ago at home against the Buccaneers, Tampa’s defense has been one of the worst in football, grading out as our 28th-best unit while allowing the third-most yards per play in the league through six weeks. Even though the Rams’ run defense is giving up the fifth-most yards per rushing attempt, we’re a week of tape into The Adrian Peterson Era in Arizona, so the Carson Palmer, Fitzgerald and Co. will need to make big plays in the passing game. This will be more difficult against a Rams secondary featuring slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman (82.0), who’s more than lived up to his name through the season’s first six weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (over/under 43.5)
Pick: Jaguars 23-20 (the under hits)
Point (EE): The fact that a team quarterbacked by Blake Bortles is a road favorite notwithstanding, this number seems a bit high for a game involving Jacoby Brissett (18th in our quarterback grades) and the aforementioned Bortles (26th). The Jaguars are the second-best defense in the league by our metrics, while their offense (especially if Leonard Fournette either can’t go or is hobbled) is likely to have difficulty even against Indy’s 29th-ranked unit on the road.
Counterpoint (GC): The Colts pass defense continues to struggle as Indy has allowed the most completions on passes 20-plus yards downfield (19). So what happens when a struggling passing offense meets a struggling pass defender? The answer of course is “chaos” which is a little-known French word for “points”. Blake Bortles has the second-lowest percentage of on-target deep passes at a Jaguarian 23.5 percent with which he will “test” the Colts pass _efense. The bigger worry for the over could be on the other side. Soon to be hot trade commodity, Jacoby Brissett, could put up a few iffy balls on the Jags defense, he has the fifth-best adjusted completion percentage on throws 10-plus yards downfield and T.Y. Hilton is averaging 2.34 yards for every route run (sixth). I don’t want to watch, I just want to win.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (over/under 38.5)
Pick: Dolphins 23-20 (the over hits)
Point (GC): 38.5? Is this 1999? Did the Chili Peppers release Californication this past June? What I would give to go back to that glorious time! Destruction leads to a very rough world but it also breeds creation and Josh McCown is taking this to heart, he has the fourth-best adjusted completion percentage this season. He very well could have put up 24-plus points on the Pats had it not been for that wacko call on the Seferian-Jenkins end zone dive. Jay Ajayi has forced 21 missed tackles on rushing attempts this year (fifth-most) while the Jets have missed 37 (second-most) setting up nicely for a couple of Dolphins scores even if Jay Cutler forgets he’s getting paid $10M dollars to play QB on Sunday. On a related note, I just watched the Californication music video, probably best that you go do so as well before you wager on Jay Cutler putting up some points.
Counterpoint (EE): The totals in each of the Dolphins games have been 36, 26, 20, 26 and 37, a big reason why we’re seeing what is going to be one of the smallest totals in the league probably the entire season. Jay Ajayi has been fantastic again this season, averaging almost 3.0 yards per carry after contact on his way to being the third-highest graded running back (85.8) through six weeks. However, run-heavy attacks are conducive to low game totals, meaning he’ll have to bust some big plays against the Jets’ lowest-ranked defense to get to the number for us.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Pick: Patriots 28-24 (New England covers)
Point (EE): This is the lowest spread we’ve seen for a Patriots’ home game in some time, no doubt due to the perceived mediocrity across the league giving the myth of parity in the NFL some validity. That said, the Patriots now have the highest PFFELO rating (again), and are facing a Falcons team reeling after two consecutive home losses to AFC East foes. While a lot has changed since the Super Bowl, the play of Tom Brady (the league’s highest-graded quarterback, 92.0) hasn’t. Add the downfield exploits of Rob Gronkowski (2.39 yards per route run, first among TE) and Brandin Cooks (1.96, 13th among WRs) to the mix, and the Patriots have additional means by which to exploit Atlanta all four quarters this second time around.
Counterpoint (GC): Last season, Matt Ryan dominated downfield, he generated a 136.1 passer rating on throws 20-plus yards downfield while putting 57.1 percent of those throws on target (first and second, respectively). This season, he’s generated a passer rating of 87.3 on just 21.1 percent adjusted completion percentage (18th and last). This line is likely assuming the current version of Matthew Ice shows up in Foxborough on Sunday night. Should MVP Matty Ice make an appearance, the spread cover could very well be in jeopardy thanks to a Patriots pass defense that has allowed the second-most yards in the NFL on throws that travel 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage. Short of this, it would take Tom Brady eating one too few of his magic antioxidant rich “avocados” and I’m going to go ahead and make the call that Gisele doesn’t let that type of mortal sin happen in her house.
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Pick: Eagles 27 – 20 (Eagles cover)
Point (GC): All things being even, there doesn’t appear to be a massive difference in the passing game on either side. Tipping the scale is the Eagles pass-rush tandem of Fletcher Cox (85.7 pass-rush grade) and Brandon Graham (88.8). In the Week 1 matchup, Washington QB Kirk Cousins had a passer rating of 48.5 when under pressure and for the season he sits at just 65.8. Kirk may also be without the services of a fully healthy Trent Williams, and Washington is extremely thin at tackle. Carson Wentz meanwhile, will get to face a secondary that may be without Josh Norman (79.7). Wentz has been great on third downs with seven “Big Time Throws” – two more than any other QB. Nelson Agholor and Co. make sure they are always on the Redskins' minds with a decisive seven-point victory.
Counterpoint (EE): While Carson Wentz has played better than Kirk Cousins through six weeks, it’s not completely clear that he gives Philadelphia the decided edge in the passing game that would warrant being favored by more than a field goal and a half. If Cousins can continue to optimize the abilities of Chris Thompson, 4.9 yards per carry and 3.54 yards per route run (first among running backs), and fulfill the promise to use Josh Doctson (to whom he has 120.4 passer rating on his targets) more in the passing game, the Spreadskins could keep this one closer than they did in Week 1 and pull out the cover.
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