Everything you need to know for Steelers-Broncos
The Pittsburgh Steelers won an absolutely wild Wild Card game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night, earning a trip to Denver in the Divisional Round. But it didn’t come without costs. PFF’s No. 1-ranked wide receiver, Antonio Brown, suffered a concussion, and elite quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a shoulder injury. Both players’ status for this week is uncertain. (Note: This article will be updated as information becomes known on both players.)
Meanwhile, the Broncos earned the top seed this season by having arguably the best defense in football matched up with an offense that did just enough at times. They get future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning back to start this game, although it remains to be seen if he will show any improvement from his early-season struggles.
Just three weeks ago, the Broncos traveled to Pittsburgh and blew a 27-13 halftime lead, losing 34-27. But that was with Brock Osweiler at QB. Now it’s at Mile High, with Manning running the Broncos offense.
Here are some things to watch out for in this matchup:
The two best things about the Steelers offense might not even play in this game. Roethlisberger (92.8 player grade) was our third-ranked QB this season. The difference in the Steelers’ offense when he played compared to when he didn’t (he has missed four games and parts of others) is astounding. Brown (96.6) was the highest-graded receiver and averaged 2.89 yards per route run, third-most among wideouts.
The Steelers have had a strong pass rush all season, led by OLB James Harrison (85.5) and his 45 total pressures. On the inside, DE Cameron Heyward had 58 total pressures this season, fifth-most at his position. That doesn’t include the sack, hurry, and seven pressures he had in the Wild Card game. Overall in their game against the Bengals, the Steelers pressured AJ McCarron on 43 percent of his dropbacks, and had three sacks.
This could all be moot point if he plays, but the Steelers’ receiving corps minus Antonio Brown has not been great this season. Their next-best WR is Marcus Wheaton (75.4), and he has only produced average grades this year outside of one big week versus Seattle. Both WR Martavis Bryant (70.8) and TE Heath Miller (73.7) have had up-and-down seasons. Bryant had a positively graded game against Cincinnati, including an acrobatic, highlight-reel touchdown catch, but that was after two well below-average games to finish the regular season.
The Steelers have had a tough time in pass coverage this year. ILBs Ryan Shazier (62.0) and Lawrence Timmons (38.8) have been among worst coverage linebackers in the NFL this year, although Shazier had a +3.8 coverage game against the Bengals, his first above-average coverage grade this entire season. CB Antwon Blake (34.3) set a PFF record by allowing 1,074 yards in coverage, the most we’ve ever recorded. He finished the season ranked 113th out of 117 qualified corners.
QB Ben Roethlisberger (92.8): This is an easy pick. Roethlisberger has been one of the best QBs in the NFL this season. Nobody has a better accuracy rate on deep throws than his 50.7 percent. The Steelers are 8-4 and average 422 yards of offense when Roethlisberger starts. Without him? 2-2 and 315 yards per game.
There wasn’t a whole lot of great on the Broncos’ offense this year, but WRs Emmanuel Sanders (85.8) and Demaryius Thomas (79.1) had good seasons and can continue to get open against most defenses. Both finished the year with 1000+ yards and above-average grades. Both were also top 15 in yards after the catch, Thomas with 492 and Sanders with 364, and both averaged over 2.0 yards per route run (top 12 among receivers).
What isn’t good about the Broncos defense? Since something has to be picked, we’ll go with their run defense. Of the 20 Broncos defenders that have played significant snaps this season, 16 of them graded above average against the run. They were led by elite DT Derek Wolfe (90.1) and elite OLB Von Miller (91.8). Both players are top ten at their position both overall and against the run.
This was a tie between pass protection and QB Peyton Manning (60.0). Manning was the 33rd-ranked quarterback this season, out of 40 that qualified. His 17 interceptions led the league until the final week, despite him only starting nine games. But the offensive line has not helped either. Of their five starters, only C Matt Paradis (73.4) graded as above a back-up level player. As a unit they’ve allowed 196 pressures this season, 13th most in the NFL.
Their defense however is one of, if not the best defense in the NFL and it does not have a lot of weaknesses. Picking one, it would have to be pass coverage, but only because they are so good against the run and at rushing the passer. CB Aqib Talib (78.1 coverage grade) hasn’t been superb in coverage, and ILB Brandon Marshall (75.5 in coverage) can be taken advantage of in the middle of the field.
OLB Von Miller (91.8): Miller is the best player on this defense, and the fourth-highest graded edge defender in the NFL this year. His 82 total pressures were tied for the most at his position, and his 14.3 pass rushing productivity ranked fourth. He also made 15 run stops, which was 15th most among edge defenders.
Matchups to watch
WR Antonio Brown (96.6) (if not injured) vs. Chris Harris Jr. (86.6): Three weeks ago, Brown absolutely toasted Harris Jr. to the tune of 12 catches on 13 targets for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Take away that game and Harris Jr. allowed a mere 0.72 yards per cover snap this season, and no touchdowns. Brown was the best receiver in football this season. This matchup could very well decide this game.
LT Ryan Harris (39.1) vs. OLB James Harrison (85.5): This is another matchup that could decide this game, but one that looks much more lopsided. Harris was ranked 62nd out of 81 qualified tackles this season, and has allowed 41 total pressures this season. Harrison ranked 14th among edge defenders, and had a 12.7 pass rush productivity (fifth-best among OLBs).
Paths to Victory
Pittsburgh can win if: Antonio Brown plays and has a similar game against Chris Harris Jr. that allows Ben Roethlisberger to throw the ball all over the field, and the Steelers pass rush can get to Peyton Manning and force him to throw interceptions.
Denver can win if: Peyton Manning doesn’t turn the football over and just manages the game, and their defense does what it’s done all season and shuts down the Steelers’ run game and gets some good pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.