We'll move to more of an overview format for Rounds 5 through 7 after going pick-by-pick for the first 48 players. These stanzas lack the pizzazz of the earlier frames, but you can win your league in this area.
Although late round picks in both reality and fantasy average out to very little value, that doesn't mean a potential star won't drop. You're still looking for prospects with some elite combination of production/athleticism or athleticism/age or size/production or production/age.
As hard as it is to believe, prospects with multiple elite characteristics are still available. Try not to get caught up in selecting familiar names with below average profiles in all areas.
Round 5
5.01 Leonard Williams
5.02 Ty Montgomery
5.03 Benardrick McKinney
5.04 Jake Ryan
5.05 Randy Gregory
5.06 Tre McBride
5.07 Jeff Heuerman
5.08 Cameron Artis-Payne
5.09 Jamison Crowder
5.10 Tyrell Williams
5.11 Owamagbe Odighizuwa
5.12 Karlos Williams
In a trend I’ve seen frequently in rookie drafts this summer, Round 5 was loaded with value, arguably more so than the round preceding it. Ty Montgomery is a Cordarrelle Patterson clone in a better offense. The disparity in enthusiasm underlines the random way in which buzz attaches to certain players, especially if they’ve just finished a highlight-laden season. Unfortunately, Montgomery’s signature 2014 plays were dropped passes, and he finds himself completely blocked on Green Bay’s stacked depth chart.
McKinney, Ryan, Gregory, and Odighizuwa are all great bargains when you consider some of the long shot selections on offense in previous rounds. McKinney is the eye-of-the-beholder pick in drafts. I’ll defer to Jeff Ratcliffe who sees him as a reality reach, but the Texans spent a bunch of draft capital to move up and select him ahead of Eric Kendricks and Denzel Perryman. Much like arguably overdrafted players on offense, that gives him quite a cushion. Gregory sports numerous red flags but could equally be a DE1 sooner rather than later.
The remaining offensive players also carry some intrigue. Tre McBride’s production frequently gets discounted due to his level of competition, but he was a favorite of both scouts and analysts for a reason. Although he faces a much tougher road to fantasy prominence, McBride posted a better SPARQ score than new teammate and supposed Megatronian DGB. Artis-Payne is a bizarre steal. He lacks star qualities but was drafted ahead of Josh Robinson and finds himself with minimal competition to back up the oft-injured Jonathan Stewart. Crowder’s age- and scheme-adjusted production easily trumps that of Justin Hardy and Rashad Greene. Meanwhile, Karlos Williams is a size/speed freak in a ground-and-pound offense. New Buffalo centerpiece LeSean McCoy faded badly last year and could be on his way to an early Chris Johnson-like exit.
Round 6
6.01 Passed
6.02 Henry Anderson
6.03 John Crockett
6.04 Thomas Rawls
6.05 Vince Mayle
6.06 Grady Jarrett
6.07 Garrett Grayson
6.08 Malcolm Brown
6.09 Jesse James
6.10 Tony Lippett
6.11 Trey Williams
6.12 Tyler Kroft
Henry Anderson and Jesse James are the two values that really jump out in this round. The Colts’ new DE looks like a perfect fit for their system and ran a sub-5.0 forty and 7.2 three-cone at 294 pounds. The CFF game charters gave him a run stop percentage of 13.2 and a pass rush productivity score of 12.1.
James versus Kroft will be an interesting tight end battle to follow long term. Kroft was selected 75 spots sooner in the reality draft, but James is far younger and much more athletic.
Quite a few intriguing IDPs remain, and I’d prefer them to UDFAs at running back, although John Crockett was an unfortunate oversight by reality GMs. He finds himself with fellow UDFA and athletic sleeper Malcolm Agnew in a battle to eventually handcuff Eddie Lacy.
Round 7
7.01 Passed
7.02 Ibraheim Campbell
7.03 Nick O’Leary
7.04 Deontay Greenberry
7.05 Kwon Alexander
7.06 MyCole Pruitt
7.07 Jaquiski Tartt
7.08 Clayton Geathers
7.09 Bud Dupree
7.10 DeAndre Carter
7.11 Adrian Coxson
7.12 Danny Shelton
Round 7 is for selecting your pet sleepers. Greenberry and Carter fit the bill. Along with Devante Davis, the two receivers were among the top UDFAs at the position. Carter dwarfs Hardy and Greene as athletes and would have been drafted had he not played at Sacramento State. Greenberry was a former 5-star recruit who performed admirably in 2013 before declaring after a down 2014. One of the youngest players in the class, he’s a name to keep at the top of your watch list.
Alexander and Dupree are two freak athletes and early round picks who fall in fantasy due to questions about scheme fit as it relates to IDP scoring. Dupree ran a 4.56 forty and jumped 42 inches at 269 pounds. Instantly one of the best athletes in the NFL, the Pittsburgh OLB barely made the top 20 in third down PRP. Alexander is very young and flashed 4.55 speed at the Combine. The Bucs are talking up Danny Lansanah, but the winner of this potential depth chart battle will look to improve on the incumbent’s LB20 finish in 2014.
Priority Free Agents
Shane Ray, Preston Smith, and Hau’oli Kikaha were all somewhat surprising omissions, although in this case most rosters already sport solid LB depth and may not want to burn a spot on a rookie with an LB2 ceiling. Nate Orchard, Trey Flowers, Jordan Hicks, Danielle Hunter, and Arik Armstead are also deep league IDPs to file away.
The offensive side was pretty well picked over, but J.J. Nelson is the earliest WR reality selection to go undrafted by the PFF team. His speed/production combination bests many of the players who were picked, but unfortunately the UAB speedster is only 156 pounds. That would be a non-starter for 31 NFL teams, but Bruce Arians loves the little guys and is itching to divest himself of square peg Michael Floyd.
I also prefer Bryce Petty to Brett Hundley and Garrett Grayson. Petty led college football with 20 deep touchdowns and was one of the top performers in Time To Throw. Unlike the handcuffs for Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, the New York Jet has a real opportunity to win the 2016 starting job in a favorable spread system with multiple weapons. He would seem to have quite a bit more roster value as a result, although I’m sympathetic to the low esteem in which many hold the former Baylor star.
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