PFF Dynasty Mailbag
Welcome to the PFF Dynasty Mailbag.
This is the place to get your Dynasty and Keeper League questions answered. Need help with a trade? Want the latest analysis on a player? Curious what your rookie picks are worth? This is the place to find out.
To submit your question, just send a message to Tim (@dynastytim) on Twitter. Remember this is for Dynasty and Keeper leagues only.
1: Is Hakeem Nicks a buy, sell, or hold? Same question for Mikel Leshoure. – hospiceman
Certainly two enigmatic players in Hakeem Nicks and Mikel Leshoure.
Nicks is a tough one. The prices are all over the map on him. Some of his owners are sick of the nagging injuries and others swear by the talent and upside. If I can get Nicks for high-end WR2 pricing and use him as such, then I’m buying. If I have to pay “full value” (i.e. WR1 pricing) then I’m passing. Nicks could help people win championships or he could miss five games. You have to have the depth to withstand that. He’s a “luxury player.”
Leshoure is a surefire sell for me. But the ship has probably sailed on that with the Reggie Bush signing. My issue with Leshoure is still the injuries. I don’t expect him to have a long or productive career. He may do some nice things here and there in 2013, but he can’t be counted on long term. The apparent recovery made by Demaryius Thomas has people underestimating the long-term issues that arise from Achilles tears. I’d take a late first or an early second for Leshoure now and be ecstatic.
2: What are the prospects for Michael Crabtree and where should he be drafted in start-ups? – Wayne
The prospects are great for Michael Crabtree. He’s coming off a breakout year in which he came in third overall in PPO (points per opportunity) for WRs. He’s healthy and has Colin Kaepernick under center. Things looks promising this year for Crabtree owners.
If you want Crabtree in a start-up, you are probably going to feel like you had to reach for him. He’s likely going to go off the board as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 – in the same range as Hakeem Nicks. This means you’ll need to burn a late third or early fourth rounder on him. It just depends on how you build your team. If you take a quarterback or tight end early, he’s a target for you at WR1.
Remember, he’s still young and that alone gives him a boost in his dynasty value. His team is strong and his quarterback appears to have the goods. While having Crabtree as your top wide receiver may seem risky, it’s a risk worth taking.
3: What does the move to Miami do to Mike Wallace’s dynasty value? – Asher
Mike Wallace’s value gets a boost with the move to South Beach.
Wallace is being drafted (and used) by most dynasty owners as a WR2. He has tremendous upside on that now that he will be the focal point of the offense. He was targeted 119 times in 2012 and that just wasn’t enough opportunities for one of the NFL’s supreme playmakers. He’s more than a field stretcher and should get involved in the shorter part of the passing game in Miami. Ryan Tannehill will also show his arm strength from time to time, and Wallace will take the top off the defense.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that Wallace can be had as a buy-low in some leagues. He had a frustrating year, Miami is looked down upon by fantasy owners, and WRs changing teams have a poor track record. He’s probably worth inquiring about in your league if you’re willing to take a little risk that could produce tremendous results. I believe the risk is minimal anyway as he will remain a WR2 in all cases, barring injury.
4: Is there value to investing in a good team D (i.e. Baltimore, Pittsburgh) in a salary cap auction? – Vern
No. And I’m half tempted to leave it at that!
Outside of expert mock drafts, it’s a near 100 percent probability that someone will overpay for a team defense or draft one before the next to last round in a snake draft. I don’t know how many times people need to hear that this is a mistake to believe it, but apparently they haven’t heard enough times yet.
Team defense scoring varies tremendously from league to league, but the premise will hold. The premise is that you can’t predict what team defenses will be good. Presumably if you are “investing” you’d hope to get a top-5 or better result. Over the last three years, the Ravens and the Steelers cumulatively have two top-5 finishes. The only team to finish in the top 5 all three years was the Bears. And they only slightly edged the Jets in 2010. Heck, the Lions were a top-5 defense in 2011 and then were the 29th overall team last year.
Even the Bears 2012 performance is an aberration. It’s unlikely that we will see another time that a team defense has that type of point separation and, more importantly, consistency of week-to-week production. Focus your attention and assets elsewhere.
5: Can you explain the typical “tags” used in a salary cap league? And what types of players should get them? – Wayne
Every salary cap (SC) league has unique rules. That’s part of what makes them so enjoyable. And just like the NFL, most SC leagues provide a mechanism for owners to keep some of their players once their contracts expire. That’s what people mean when they talk about “tags.”
To keep it simple, most leagues have two types of tags – a “Franchise” tag and some sort of “Restricted Free Agent Tag.” The RFA tag may be called a “Transition” tag.
The Franchise tag works similarly to the NFL tag of the same name. The owner is able to retain the player, generally on a short contract, for a very high salary. The salary is an average of say the top-5 paid players at that position in the league. This tag is best used on elite-caliber players who either are going to help their team win now or have trade value if signed by their current owner. Since these players are normally on short deals, the best way to gauge value is via redraft rankings. If the player isn’t a first- or second-round redraft player, you may be overpaying.
The Transition tag is usually some form of a “right of last refusal.” That means that the player is bid on by any owners who want to participate in the auction, but the current owner can match the final bid. In some leagues if the owner lets the player go, he/she is compensated with either cap money or rookie picks. This is the more flexible tag and works to the owner’s advantage. It’s usually wise to transition tag as many players as you are allowed to. There’s no downside since you can always elect not to exercise your right of last refusal. Of course the risk with this tag is that you may see the player get bid up beyond your ability/willingness to pay. But in that case, you just spend your money in the general auction.