PFF Dynasty Mailbag

Welcome to the PFF Dynasty Mailbag.

This is the place to get your Dynasty and Keeper League questions answered.  Need help with a trade?  Want the latest analysis on a player?  Curious what your rookie picks are worth?  This is the place to find out.

To submit your question, just send a message to Tim (@dynastytim) on Twitter.  Remember this is for Dynasty and Keeper leagues only.

1: I need RB help in a big way.  I’ve been offered Bernard Pierce, 1.09 and 2014 1st and 2nd for the 1.01.  I love Cordarrelle Patterson, but should I do this deal? – Chris

That’s a nice haul to bring in for the 1.01 regardless of your team situation.  I’d take this deal based on value alone and here’s why:

1. While you’re high on Cordarrelle Patterson, I’m not.  He’s my number one wide receiver in this class, but he’s nowhere near the caliber of prospect that A.J. Green or Julio Jones were.  He’s a slightly better prospect than Justin Blackmon but comes with a greater risk/reward factor.  Patterson is extremely raw and, I believe, will have a difficult transition into the NFL.  Expect owners to get frustrated with the lack of immediate fantasy production.  It’s possible in time that Patterson will emerge as a dynasty star, but he’s a risk to bust as well.
2. Bernard Pierce is poised to eat into Ray Rice’s production and potentially emerge as a legitimate flex option in all dynasty formats.  While it may take a year or two, Pierce projects to be a solid asset for your team.
3. The 1.09 is still going to yield a high quality player and quite possibly a RB.  I can easily rattle off twelve players that I’d love to have in this draft.  Because the draft is so deep and devoid of top-end elite prospects, the value gap between the 1.01 and the 1.09 isn’t what it would be in most years.  These picks are closer than you may think.
4. The 2014 picks are very valuable.  There are elite-caliber players expected to come out next year (ex. Marqise Lee and Sammy Watkins).  You’re doing yourself a favor by acquiring picks to prepare to move up for these super studs.

Good luck, and I’d do the deal.

2: What’s Coby Fleener worth these days?  – Earl

The combination of team and league situation has driven Fleener’s value down significantly in less than a year.

Let’s deal with Indianapolis first.  I think a lot of owners hope that Indy will be able to support two fantasy-relevant tight ends (à la New England).  That may evolve over time, but the numbers looked somewhat grim last year: Tom Brady targeted his tight ends 179 times (28 percent of his attempts) while Andrew Luck targets his tight ends 114 times (18 percent).  This is simply a volume issue.  Until that number gets closer to 150 for Luck, it’s going to be hard to view Fleener or Dwayne Allen as starter options in fantasy.

Another issue with Fleener’s value is the glut of prospect tight ends in the NFL.  There are just so many young ones to choose from now that all of their value is driven down – supply and demand.  Fleener is certainly one of the more coveted prospects, but I’m not going to pay much of a premium for him over the likes of Rob Housler, Jordan Cameron, Lance Kendricks, etc.  In shallower leagues some of these guys might even be on the wire.

Net/net:  I’d say that Fleener is worth about whatever pick you think you’d use to get Tyler Eifert in your rookie draft.  Eifert, like Fleener, will be one of the more desired young tight ends and therefore I’d say these guys are worth roughly the same amount.  For me, this would be somewhere in the early to mid-second round of a12-team league.

3: I’ve been offered the 1.03 for Lamar Miller.  Should I take it? – Frank

Lamar Miller is one of the most talked-about dynasty players at the moment.  And man is he a hot commodity.  His early ADP is now in the late fourth or early fifth round of start-up drafts.  Remember, that means he’s projected as a lock-and-load, every-week starter by those who are drafting him.  By this metric, you should pass on the 1.03 for Miller.

The question is do you buy the projection that he’s going to be a weekly fantasy starter?  On the positive side, it appears all but certain that Reggie Bush is moving on, Daniel Thomas is a pedestrian player, and there’s no one else of note in Miami.  On the negative side, Miami has an anemic offense and a head coach that comes from a school of thought that doesn’t generally produce a “feature back.”

My advice would be to hold tight with Miller.  Your hope is that the sheer volume of carries will produce something like 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.  If that happens, he’s a solid RB2.  The odds seem as good with him as they do with any other unproven player.

4: Was offered David Wilson, Jeremy Maclin and the 3.01 for DeMarco Murray, Tampa Mike and a 5th rounder in 2014.  Thoughts on that?  Note: 16-team league.  – Anonymous

As much chatter as there is about Lamar Miller, David Wilson takes the cake.  This trade ultimately comes down to how much you buy into Wilson.

The picks wouldn’t factor in for me too much.  Clearly a third now is worth more than a fifth later, but both are crap shoots in any format – especially a 16 teamer.  Of course if this is an IDP league, that changes the equation a bit.

Jeremy Maclin vs. Mike Williams is a near push as well.  I’m a tad excited to see what Maclin can do under Chip Kelly, but I wouldn’t let that sway me much at all.  This deal is about the running backs.

Option A:  Keep Murray and accept the injury risk that he presents.  While his injuries have been somewhat freakish, it’s tough to argue that he’s durable.  If Murray plays in 14 or more games, he’s a solid RB1.  But will he?

Option B:  Take Wilson and accept the risk that he’s mostly hype.  Andre Brown is likely to be re-signed soon, and he’s a threat to eat into Wilson’s workload.  Will Grandpa Coughlin tolerate Wilson putting the ball on the ground?  Will Wilson be able to help protect the franchise asset: Eli Manning?  Wilson is a highly risky player given his ADP and the expectations that people are putting on him.  But when he’s in the open field, there’s almost no one like him.

Wilson appears to have CJ Spiller upside at the moment.  If you’re a gambler, I think you take the Wilson side of this deal but you may need to get a prescription for some Ambien to get to sleep after doing this one.

 5: I’m sitting at the end of the first round (1.12) after winning the championship with a solid team.  I should contend again.  Can you give me a sense of who I might be looking at come draft day? – Bruce

You will have your pick of some very nice prospects.  Because you have a strong team you will be able to simply take the Best Player Available (BPA) and add to your bench depth.  Don’t get cute and try to swing for the fences or target a position, just take the BPA and be glad you have a solid team.

While it’s early and the NFL draft will still cause me to make some minor adjustments to my rookie ranks, I think I can give you a sense of some of the names you might be looking at:

1. QB:  It’s probably too early to consider a quarterback at 1.12.  Your hope would be that someone ahead of you took Geno Smith simply so you have one more solid prospect to choose from.  I don’t have Smith projected to be good enough to warrant a first-round selection.
2. RB: The draft tends to impact running backs more than any other position for dynasty value.  Expect Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard to be long gone, but you may see Montee Ball or Marcus Lattimore fall to you in this range.
3. WR:  This is likely were the BPA will come from as this is a deep, deep wide receiver class.  Names you may see: Robert Woods, Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter.  Woods is probably the “safest” pick in this range but doesn’t bring a ton of upside.  I could easily see Woods being the highest producing rookie wide receiver given his polish and NFL-ready game.  But you may see most of what you’re ever going to get with him right away.
4. TE:  Unless you’re in a tight end premium league or Eifert goes to Atlanta (w/o Tony Gonzalez), this is too early to take one.  Let someone else overdraft Eifert.  As I mentioned earlier, tight end is deep in the NFL now.

Hope that helps, and check back with me after the NFL draft.

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