Performance Based Value: Philadelphia Eagles
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2012′s most undervalued and overvalued Philadelphia Eagles:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Evan Mathis, Guard
For the past two years Mathis has sat atop our guard ratings, and with Carl Nicks missing half the season there was no one even close to Mathis’ production in 2012. Only two other guards came within half the +31.8 run block rating Mathis had, while his 97.8 Pass Blocking Efficiency was sixth for guards. Prior to the 2012 season Mathis signed a new contract so this is the low end of his deal, but there is never a point where Mathis gets anywhere near the money the highest paid guards are getting, and that is what he deserves.
2012 Cap Hit: $2.0m
2012 Performance Based Value: $11.1m
Value Differential: +$9.2m
2. Brandon Graham, Defensive End
If you can get to the quarterback in the NFL, you are going to get paid. It’s as simple as that. Brandon Graham had a Pass Rushing Productivity of 17.3, which was by far the best for all 4-3 defensive ends. The only thing holding him back is his playing time. Early in the season he was struggling to get more than 25 snaps per game, and it wasn’t until Jason Babin’s release that Graham saw significant time. If he can keep his production up on a high number of snaps, his 2013 Performance Based Values will just increase.
2012 Cap Hit: $2.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.9m
Value Differential: +$5.4m
3. LeSean McCoy, Halfback
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that McCoy is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league. Not only is he the fourth-most targeted back in the passing game, but was effective after the catch with a high 9.4 yards after the catch per catch. Like Mathis, he got a new contract at the beginning of the year and his cap hit will only go up, but at least for the time being the Eagles are getting high value for how little he is counting against the cap.
2012 Cap Hit: $2.7m
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.1m
Value Differential: +$4.5m
4. Fletcher Cox, DT – Cap: $1.9m, PBV: $4.3m, Value Differential: +$2.4m
5. Nick Foles, QB – Cap: $520k, PBV: $2.3m, Value Differential: +$1.7m
6. Jason Avant, WR – Cap: $2.2m, PBV: $3.8m, Value Differential: +$1.6m
7. King Dunlap, OT – Cap: $1.3m, PBV: $2.7m, Value Differential: +$1.4m
8. Brandon Boykin, CB – Cap: $490k, PBV: $1.6m, Value Differential: +$1.1m
9. Damaris Johnson, WR – Cap: $400k, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: +$940k
10. Alex Henery, K – Cap: $570k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$910k
1. Michael Vick, Quarterback*
Vick is a quarterback who doesn’t play all that well when he is under pressure, and it doesn’t help that he is under pressure on 41.4% of his pass plays. That, followed by a concussion that sat him out for the last part of the season, didn’t help the Eagles get anywhere near value for the money they paid Vick. It is no surprise that Philadelphia made Vick restructure his contract in order to return.
2012 Cap Hit: $13.9m
2012 Performance Based Value: $2.7m
Value Differential: -$11.2m
2. Nnamdi Asomugha, Cornerback
This is another name that will surprise no one. Asomugha allowed a high 66.7% catch rate, a high 15.9 yards per catch, five touchdowns and had only one interception. He is paid like one of the best cornerbacks in the league, but is below average in all receiving categories outside of passes defended. He also has the redeeming quality that his 2.6 Run Stop Percentage is eighth-best among cornerbacks, but that only helps explain why he should make more than the minimum.
2012 Cap Hit: $11.0m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.9m
Value Differential: -$9.9m
3. Cullen Jenkins, Defensive Tackle
The Eagles typical defensive line rotation involves a player coming in for a few plays and then coming out for a few, and doesn’t take down and distance into as much consideration as other teams. This meant Jenkins was in for far too many run plays, which led to a -9.8 run defense rating. Because he was such a liability in the run game, his value didn’t match his cap hit, and now he is no longer on the roster.
2012 Cap Hit: $5.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $2.0m
Value Differential: -$3.9m
4. Trent Cole, DE – Cap: $5.9m, PBV: $2.9m, Value Differential: -$2.9m
5. Demetress Bell, OT – Cap: $3.3m, PBV: $700k, Value Differential: -$2.6m
6. Brent Celek, TE – Cap: $3.8m, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: -$2.5m
7. Todd Herremans, OT* – Cap: $4.2m, PBV: $2.5m, Value Differential: -$1.7m
8. Mike Patterson, DT* – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $830k, Value Differential: -$1.6m
9. Jason Babin, DE – Cap: $4.4m, PBV: $2.8m, Value Differential: -$1.6m
10. Jeremy Maclin, WR – Cap: $2.3m, PBV: $990k, Value Differential: -$1.4m
Summary – Team Value Differential: -8.7m
With the big names on the top of the overvalued list, it’s no surprise the Eagles are in the red as a team. However the future is starting to look brighter, as four players on the overvalued list have been released, Vick’s contract has been restructured, and it sounds like Asomugha will also need to take a pay cut or be released.
Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke