Performance Based Value: Oakland Raiders
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2012′s most undervalued and overvalued Oakland Raiders:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Lamarr Houston, Defensive End
Whatever the Raiders ask Lamarr Houston to do, he does it. What’s more, he’s incredibly productive while he’s doing it, finishing the year our 10th ranked defensive end in the league. This is primarily down to his excellent work in the run game where he had the second-highest grade (+17.0) of all his peers, with his 31 defensive stops in the run game bettered only by Cameron Jordan. That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any pass rush, because his 54 combined sacks, hits and hurries on 448 pass rushing snaps show he does. A fine all-around player and a snip at what he’s costing the Raiders … for now.
2012 Cap Hit: $1m
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.1m
Value Differential: +$6m
2. Philip Wheeler, Linebacker
The Raiders didn’t get an awful lot right last year, but the signing of Wheeler was certainly one of them. The former Colt found himself an every-down player who was on the field for all bar 16 of the Raiders’ defensive snaps, and used those snaps to finish sixth overall in our 4-3 outside linebacker rankings. Wheeler was particularly impressive when blitzing, where he turned 126 opportunities into 30 quarterback disruptions.
2012 Cap Hit: $1m
2012 Performance Based Value: $6.6m
Value Differential: +$5.6m
3. Carson Palmer, Quarterback
The former Bengal would finish only 19th overall in our quarterback rankings, but thanks to how his contract is structured he only cost the Raiders a little over $3m in cap money. By any one’s reckoning that’s not a bad amount of your cap to spend on a starting quarterback who would throw for over 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns.
2012 Cap Hit: $3.2m
2012 Performance Based Value: $8.2m
Value Differential: +$5.1m
4. Desmond Bryant, DT – Cap: $1.9m, PBV: $6.8m, Value Differential: +$4.9m
5. Jared Veldheer, OT – Cap: $770k, PBV: $5.2m, Value Differential: +$4.5m
6. Marcel Reece, FB – Cap: $800k, PBV: $4.5m, Value Differential: +$3.7m
7. Joselio Hanson, CB – Cap: $1m, PBV: $3.3m, Value Differential: +$2.3m
8. Stefen Wisniewski, OC – Cap: $900k, PBV: $2.5m, Value Differential: +$1.5m
9. Mike Goodson, RB – Cap: $600k, PBV: $1.9m, Value Differential: +$1.3m
10. Rod Streater, WR – Cap: $400k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$1.1m
1. Darren McFadden, Running Back
Unless you were living under a rock throughout the 2012 season, you’ll know Darren McFadden didn’t have the best of years. Averaging 3.3 yards per carry and finishing bottom (by some distance) in our running back rankings. He struggled as the Raiders tried to employ a zone blocking scheme and was nowhere near worth the huge outlay in him.
2012 Cap Hit: $9.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1m
Value Differential: -$8.4m
2. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Wide Receiver
One of the most disappointing draft picks in recent memory, there aren’t many wide receivers who are paid as much as “DHB”, let alone follow that up with such a mediocre (to be kind) performance. His 1.19 yards per route run was the 11th-lowest of all receivers.
2012 Cap Hit: $8.2m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.8m
Value Differential: -$6.4m
3. Richard Seymour*, Defensive Tackle
Now, Seymour gets something of a pass because he missed so much time hurt. When he was on the field he was actually playing pretty well, turning his 361 snaps into a +9.5 grade. However, when you miss that amount of time and have that big a cap hit, well, you know the drill — the team isn’t getting value.
2012 Cap Hit: $8.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $3.8m
Value Differential: -$5m
4. Tommy Kelly, DT – Cap: $5.4m, PBV: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$4.2m
5. Shane Lechler, P – Cap: $4.9m, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: $-3.6m
6. Michael Huff, S – Cap: $4m, PBV: $2.3m, Value Differential: -$1.6m
7. Sebastian Janikowski, K – Cap: $4.5m, PBV: $3.4m, Value Differential: -$1.1m
8. Aaron Curry*, LB – Cap: $1m, PBV: $100k, Value Differential: -$900k
9. Shawntae Spencer, CB – Cap: $1.5m, PBV: $825k, Value Differential: -$700k
10. Matt Shaughnessy, DE – Cap: $1.5m, PBV: $800k, Value Differential: -$660k
Summary – Team Value Differential: +$6.6m
The Raiders managed to get decent value out of what they had on the roster, but it’s an indictment of how bad a shape they were in that the players we measured counted only $90m against the cap. So while they got value, they were in so much of a hole (that they’re trying to work themselves out of) that they still couldn’t put an overly competitive team on the field. In total, 35 players scored positive values and 31 scored negative ones.
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