Performance Based Value: New York Jets
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here’s a look at the most undervalued and overvalued New York Jets in 2012.
1. Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive End
While J.J. Watt and Geno Atkins stole a lot of the attention for interior defenders this year, you shouldn’t ignore the kind of year Wilkerson had. His 10.9 Run Stop Percentage would have led 3-4 defensive ends in 2011 and finished behind just Watt and Justin Smith this year. There were very few bright spots for the New York Jets’ defense, but this is one that stands out. While the Jets might hold back from paying defensive players big money from their past mistakes, one day Wilkerson will need that big contract.
2012 Cap Hit: $1.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $10.5m
Value Differential: +$8.9m
2. Austin Howard, Offensive Tackle
It isn’t all that often that you can stick an undrafted player who has yet to play an offensive snap in at right tackle and it work out well. He had the fourth-highest run blocking rating amongst right takcles behind Anthony Davis, Phil Loadholt, and Andre Smith. As the season went on, his pass blocking improved and he wound up a respectable right tackle. Anytime you can get a suitable starter for the league minimum, you’ve done something right.
2012 Cap Hit: $540k
2012 Performance Based Value: $3.4m
Value Differential: +$2.8m
3. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Offensive Tackle
You might be surprised to find Ferguson on this list, but it was a case where Ferguson restructured his contract prior to the 2012 season which resulted in a lower cap hit for 2012 and higher one in future years. Regardless, he was amongst the best left tackles in the league — one of just four to have 500 or more pass blocks, and allow two or fewer sacks. He also tied for ninth in terms of total pressure allowed with 26.
2012 Cap Hit: $4.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.1m
Value Differential: +$2.7m
4. Mike Devito, DE – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $4.2m, Value Differential: +$1.7m
5. Jeff Cumberland, TE – Cap: $540k, PBV: $1.6m, Value Differential: +$1m
6. Jeremy Kerley, WR – Cap: $500k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$1m
7. Matt Slauson, G – Cap: $1.1m, PBV: $2.0m, Value Differential: +$900k
8. Bilal Powell, RB – Cap: $570k, PBV: $1.4m, Value Differential: +$850k
9. Clyde Gates, WR – Cap: $465k, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: +$850k
10. Brandon Moore, G – Cap: $4.5m, PBV: $5.2m, Value Differential: +$700k
1. David Harris, Inside Linebacker
This offseason the Jets already released two of their overpaid linebackers, yet the most overpaid of the group, David Harris, remains. He makes stops less frequently than the average inside linebacker and misses tackles more often. In the past he performed better in coverage, but with no interceptions and more missed tackles this year, he was much closer to an average player in that regard. He was overpaid when he signed his second contract, and he doesn’t seem to be getting any better.
2012 Cap Hit: $12.0m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.1m
Value Differential: -$10.9m
2. Darrelle Revis, Cornerback*
It isn’t entirely fair to put Revis here because he only played in two games this season. What is probably more surprising is that he didn’t end up at the top of the list. Regardless, the Jets didn’t get their money’s worth on Revis during the 2012 season as he was paid over $100,000 per defensive snap he took.
2012 Cap Hit: $11.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $950k
Value Differential: -$10.6m
3. Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver*
You never want to get into the habit of making excuses for a team, but when their best defensive player goes down with an injury followed by their best skill player, chances are the season isn’t going to end well. Regardless of the injury, Holmes has already seen his catches decrease by 10 from 2010 to 2011, and yards per catch decrease from 14.3 to 12.8. Even if Holmes played similarly to 2011 he would be overvalued, and his cap hit is just going to increase these next few years.
2012 Cap Hit: $9.3m
2012 Performance Based Value: $825k
Value Differential: -$8.4m
4. Calvin Pace, OLB – Cap: $7.3m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$6.3m
5. Mark Sanchez, QB – Cap: $7.9m, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: -$5.5m
6. Bart Scott, ILB – Cap: $6.0m, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: -$3.6m
7. Dustin Keller, TE – Cap: $4.0m, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$2.5m
8. LaRon Landry, S – Cap: $3.5m, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: -$2.2m
9. Tim Tebow, QB – Cap: $2.6m, PBV: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$1.4m
10.Jason Smith, T – Cap: $2.4m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$1.3m
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
Summary – Team Value Differential: -$32.2m
The Jets ended up as one of the worst teams when comparing money spent to what they got out of it. A large part of that were the two injured players. Luckily, the future isn’t as grim. Of the seven players rounding out their Top 10 overvalued, three have already been released, two are free agents, and rumors are Tim Tebow won’t be back. Now they just need to find even more value in their young players.
Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke