Performance Based Value: Jacksonville Jaguars

In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:

• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)

Here are 2012′s most undervalued and overvalued Jacksonville Jaguars:

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

Undervalued

 1. C.J. Mosley, Defensive Tackle

You may not have heard of this Jaguars' defensive tackle, but from Week 5 on he took over as a starter, and had 19 stops in his 12 games. His consistency in the run game helped him as well, with only two missed tackles on the season, and a few late-season sacks and hits helped him remain an average pass rusher. Prior to the season he signed a three-year deal, and it looks like the Jaguars may have got a bargain.

2012 Cap Hit: $1.3m
2012 Performance Based Value: $5.3m
Value Differential: +$3.9m

2. Cecil Shorts, Wide Receiver

In his second year Shorts received a lot more opportunities in the pass game and was very inconsistent. He had a low catch rate of 54.5% and had nine dropped passes. What brings his value up is the big plays he did make, with 17.8 yards per catch and seven touchdowns. Taking the good is enough to make him some money, and he is worth more than his rookie contract is giving him.

2012 Cap Hit: $610k
2012 Performance Based Value: $2.7m
Value Differential: +$2.1m

3. Terrance Knighton, Defensive Tackle

It’s not a good sign when your third-most undervalued player is someone who lost his starting job early in the season. Regardless, Knighton had two sacks, seven hits and 10 hurries which made him a decent pass rusher. He ended up with 23 stops on the year, and only one missed tackle as well. It all adds up to a decent defensive tackle who was worth more than the last year of his rookie contract.

2012 Cap Hit: $830k
2012 Performance Based Value: $2.8m
Value Differential: +$1.9m

4. Austin Lane, DE – Cap: $590k, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: +$1.9m

5. Dwight Lowery, S – Cap: $1.8m, PBV: $3.0m, Value Differential: +$1.2m

6. Bryan Anger, P – Cap: $560k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$990k

7. George Selvie, DE – Cap: $540k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$940k

8. Julian Stanford, OLB – Cap: $390k, PBV: $770k, Value Differential: +$380k

9. Mike Harris, CB – Cap: $420k, PBV: $790k, Value Differential: +$370k

10. Rashad Jennings, HB* – Cap: $580k, PBV: $860k, Value Differential: +$280k

Overvalued

1. Paul Posluszny, Middle Linebacker

When Posluszny was signed two years ago by the Jaguars it was a little bit of a questionable move. The numbers back-up that he wasn’t worth his big contract, as his Run Stop Percentage has been on the decline and was down to 7.5% in 2012. While his numbers in the secondary don’t look that different between 2011 and 2012, he allowed 21 passing first downs in 2012 compared to 12 in 2011, and had seven tackles on third-down passes that led to fourth downs compared to just two in 2012. He’s getting paid like one of the best in the league, but was below average at best.

2012 Cap Hit: $7.0m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.2m
Value Differential: -$5.8m

2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Halfback*

Anytime a star player is injured early on in the season, the team will not have gotten their money’s worth. Had Maurice Jones-Drew played the whole season, he would not have been nearly as high on the list. Regardless, on the small sample size he did have in 2012 his 2.3 yards after contact per carry is reason to be concerned going forward. He was between 2.8-3.0 in each year between 2009-2011.

2012 Cap Hit: $6.4m
2012 Performance Based Value: $1.0m
Value Differential: -$5.4m

3. Daryl Smith, Outside Linebacker*

This is another case where the Jaguars had one of their star players miss nearly the entire season. He was in the last year of his second contract which led to a higher than usual cap hit for him, and they got only two games out of him at the very end of the season. Had we done this in any year before this one, chances are Smith would have ended up high on the undervalued list rather than the overvalued one.

2012 Cap Hit: $5.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $830k
Value Differential: -$4.7m

4. Mike Thomas, WR – Cap: $4.9m, PBV: $310k, Value Differential: -$4.6m

5. Dawan Landry, S – Cap: $4.7m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$3.6m

6. Marcedes Lewis, TE – Cap: $8.8m, PBV: $5.3m, Value Differential: -$3.5m

7. Greg Jones II, FB – Cap: $4.1m, PBV: $830k, Value Differential: -$3.3m

8. Aaron Ross, CB – Cap: $3.8m, PBV: $840k, Value Differential: -$3.0m

9. Uche Nwaneri, G – Cap: $3.9m, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$2.4m

10. Brad Meester, C – Cap: $3.3m, PBV: $930k, Value Differential: -$2.3m

Summary – Team Value Differential: -$37.3m

Everything that could go wrong here did go wrong. There really aren’t many players that the Jaguars are getting more than their money’s worth for, and only one player is on offense. Arguably the team’s two best players missed the majority of the season, and a total of 15 players are being overvalued by over $1 million dollars.

Follow Nate on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke

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