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Pass Rushing Productivity: 3rd & 4th Down

Never let it be said that if you give us a good topic to write about we won’t have at it.

This week we were told to inform the masses who was picking up the most pressure on third down. So that’s what I was tasked with. Find out the most productive pass rushers in those most crucial of situations.

I expanded the look a little, so I have included fourth-down attempts as well, and the results, as you can imagine, are pretty interesting.

The Sack Specialists

Where better to start than telling you which players have the most sacks. It’s often seen, outside of interceptions, as the most definitive play a defender can make, and happening on third or fourth down means you’re nearly guaranteed to have killed a drive.

So who leads the way in this regard? Step forward Von Miller who has 11 sacks on third or fourth down. That’s three more than Cameron Wake in second, and Bruce Irvin in third. Perhaps the most impressive name on the list however is that of J.J. Watt, considering he’s normally rushing from the interior of the line in these obvious passing situations. Kudos.

Here’s the Top 10.

[table id=672 /]

 

The Pressure Players

Still, if there’s one thing we’ll try and condition you to doing it’s to look beyond sacks. They account for only a small percentage of a player’s total snaps in the year, and so it’s worth looking at the total pressure he generates. Sure, it doesn’t guarantee a negative play but take a guy like Peyton Manning. We can all agree he’s pretty good right? Well, when you don’t get pressure on him he completes 71.7% of his passes and has a 29:6 touchdown to interception ratio. When you do get pressure he completes 52.4% of passes and has a 1:4 TD to INT ratio.

Pressure is hugely significant and it’s why Cameron Wake deserves credit for overtaking Miller with his 30 combined quarterback disruptions. Miller is still up in second, but the name in third will surprise a few: Derrick Morgan. He’s looked over the severe injury he suffered as a rookie and has really impressed.

Still, the Top 10 is almost as notable for who it doesn’t include as opposed to who it does. To some he is the leading defensive player of the year candidate, but Aldon Smith is all the way down in 18th spot behind guys like Greg Hardy, Juqua Parker and Paul Kruger, despite having more opportunities to rush the passer.

Here’s the Top 10.

[table id=673 /]

 

Productivity!

But even just looking at pressure numbers won’t give you an idea of who the most productive guys are. No, you need to be able to work out how much pressure they got relative to how many times they rushed the passer. That’s where our Pass Rushing Productivity formula comes in handy.

With this little beauty of a formula I can categorically hand the victory to Cameron Wake in terms of who the most productive pass rusher in the league on third and fourth downs is after 14 weeks of NFL action. Kudos to Wake who edges out Miller, while Lamarr Woodley is up in third. You see what the Steelers are missing with his injuries keeping him off the field — Woodley has rushed the passer just 59 times on third down.

Here’s the Top 10.

[table id=674 /]

Of course, numbers are never the be all and end all. But if you’re looking for a matter of fact way of assessing a guys’ impact on third and fourth down, then look no further.

 

Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled

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