NFL Preseason: Four Passing Takes
Nick Foles matched his 2013 interception total in three drives. The main fantasy takeaway here is: good – it’ll keep his ADP suppressed. Fantasy Football Calculator currently has him getting drafted at 6.11 on average, and it continues a dive from a high of 6.03 as recently as two weeks ago. He has a high standard deviation and it’s been obvious in MFL10s, where I was able to get him in the eighth and ninth rounds this weekend. There’s no need to reach because he’s falling in many drafts, and there are plenty of excellent quarterback values available later if he’s picked at or before his ADP.
The biggest argument against Foles this preseason seems to be that last season’s efficiency, especially his unsustainably low interception percentage, will regress. There’s no doubt that he will come back to earth, as his touchdown percentage (8.5), interception percentage (0.6), and yards per attempt (9.1) easily led all passers who started at least six games. The key is that he can regress markedly and still crush his ADP.
He averaged 0.73 fantasy points per drop back last season. Peyton Manning, in the greatest quarterback season ever, had a 0.64 mark. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees posted 0.53 points per drop back. Those three are getting picked five, six, and sometimes seven rounds ahead of Foles. Chip Kelly’s scheme is progressing into year two, and it’s worth mentioning that even a fading Michael Vick posted 0.63 points per drop back while running Kelly’s offense – a year after his average was 0.41, pre-Kelly. Even Mark Sanchez looked good, for Kotite’s sake.
Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and was named 2013 Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman