Here at Pro Football Focus we chart every play of every NFL game, recording advanced statistics on exactly what a player does on every snap. Then as fantasy analysts we take that data and use it, along with our experience from years of playing fantasy football and watching games ourselves, to form the opinions that drive our advice and decisions. This series will take a deep look at how teams are using defensive backs against opposing offenses, and apply a fantasy spin to both defensive and offensive players.
Good match-ups for wide-receivers
These match-ups involve cornerbacks who have allowed five or more touchdowns to players they were responsible to cover, or 50o+ yards so the wide-receivers should get a value bump:
Antoine Cason vs Torrey Smith
Throughout the course of the season Cason has covered the opposing WR1 for 38.1% of his snaps, which is only the 26th highest figure for players with 150+ snaps at a cornerback, but has charted his two highest % coverage games (59.0% and 78.4%) over the past two games. I expect him to see 60%+ covering Baltimore speedster, Torrey Smith, this week, which is a great match-up for the Raven’s receiver. Cason has allowed five touchdowns and a 71.9% pass completion rate in his coverage, although the longest pass he has given up all year is only 29 yards. That could well be bettered this week if he does go man-to-man with a deep threat like Smith. Don’t expect a bumper day for Cason though as Smith is only targeted on average 6.8 times a game.
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Ross Miles is the IDP Editor and a Senior Fantasy Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy, as well as 2011’s most accurate IDP expert according to FantasyPros. Follow him on Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles
For an in depth look at the IDP landscape, snap counts and weekly match-ups from IDP Editors Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles, check out our free-to-watch weekly show, The Nickel
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