Madden 25 Sim For Divisional Round

The Madden simulations are back for the Divisional Round, and the game thinks the home teams will win in the AFC (Patriots, Broncos) while the road teams prevail in the NFC (49ers, Saints).

If you are a Colts, Seahawks, Chargers, or Panthers fan, don’t sweat it — Madden sims went just 1-3 over Wild Card weekend.

I simmed all games for the Divisional Round on Madden 25 on Playstation 4. Just like real football, my virtual football players had only one chance to prove their worth; this is not the average of multiple simulations. The quarters were set for six minutes and the difficulty set to All-Pro. The entire game was simulated (no user-controlled plays).

This post analyzes the simulations to find out what Madden will get right and what it will get wrong.

Madden Says: Saints – 23, Seahawks – 16

Key Players/Stats

What will come true

1) Kenny Stills scoring a touchdown

Stills only scored five touchdowns this season, and caught just one pass for three yards against the Seahawks in Week 13, but I expect him to play a larger role this weekend.

Why? Because the Seahawks have enough power on defense to shut players like Jimmy Graham or Marques Colston down if they wish — and the Patriots showed us in Week 6 that’s possible. If that happens, a guy like Stills will be leaned on a little more than usual.

2) Golden Tate scoring a touchdown, leading the Seahawks in receiving yards

Tate led the team in yardage (898) and was tied for the team lead in touchdowns (five) during the regular season, so this seems like an accurate projection from Madden.

3) Russell Wilson throwing at least one touchdown and no interceptions

Wilson had one of his best games of the season against the Saints in Week 13 (+3.5 PFF grade), when he threw for 310 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He might not reach those yardage and touchdown marks again, but you can expect him to be careful with the ball. He threw only nine interceptions this season.

What won’t come true

1) Lance Moore catching 10 passes

Lance Moore has never caught 10 passes in a single game in the NFL. I don’t expect him to do it for the first time against this defense.

2) Drew Brees throwing for over 350 yards

Brees did average 322 yards per game during the regular season, but managed just 147 against the Seahawks in Week 13 (his lowest output of the season). I certainly think he will be better than he was during that game, but not 200-plus yards better against this defense. The Seahawks allowed only one team to have more than 215 total yards passing against them (including yards lost to sacks) all season.

3) Marshawn Lynch carrying the ball 13 times.

That would be his second lowest carry total of the season (eight carries in Week 8).

Madden Says: Colts – 6, Patriots – 25

Key Players/Stats 

What will come true 

1) Tom Brady throwing just one touchdown

He threw just one touchdown in six games this season, including back-to-back games to close out the season. Plus, the Patriots should rely on their rushing attack this week — the Colts had the 26th ranked rush defense in the league this year.

2) Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola combining to catch over 60 percent of Tom Brady’s passes

Brady completed 62 passes in Weeks 16 and 17 combined.

Edelman caught 29 of them, Amendola 13. That’s 67 percent.

3) Andrew Luck throwing at least one interception

Yeah, his comeback last week was one for the ages, but there was a reason the comeback was needed in the first place. Luck threw 10 interceptions in 2013 (including last year’s playoffs). He’s already thrown three in 2014, and it’s barely a week old.

What won’t come true

1) T.Y. Hilton gaining only three yards

We know Belichick is capable of taking a player out of the game, but the Colts have relied so heavily on Hilton in the recent past that one catch for three yards seems impossible.

2) Andrew Luck completing fewer than 33 percent of his passes

He doesn’t have the best completion rate in the league (it was actually the worst in 2012 and 19th in 2013), but 33 percent isn’t going to happen. He had just one game this season in which he completed less than half of his passes.

3) New England's two leading rushers gaining just 65 yards

I would imagine the Patriots eclipse this figure halfway through the second quarter. As I noted above, the Colts have a bad rush defense, and the Patriots have a deep enough backfield to always have someone fresh on the field.

Madden Says: 49ers – 26, Panthers – 20 

Key Players/Stats

What will come true

1) Colin Kaepernick doing damage with his legs

Kaepernick gained over 500 yards rushing this season and scored four touchdowns on the ground. He gained 98 yards rushing last weekend, so 30 yards and a touchdown doesn't seem out of the question.

2) Michael Crabtree gaining over 100 yards

He might not be “the best catcher ever,” but he proved over Wild Card weekend that he’s no slouch. He has over 100 yards receiving in two of his past three games, and gained over 100 yards in three playoff games last season.

3) Cam Newton throwing for fewer than 250 yards

Newton averaged 211 yards per game this season, so the 230-yard projection from Madden seems spot on. He threw for more than 250 yards just three times this season.

What won’t come true

1) Neither quarterback throwing an interception

Kaepernick and Newton combined for 21 interceptions this season (not a bad figure), but they each threw an interception when these two teams met earlier this season.

My point: these defenses are too good for there to be no picks the entire game.

2) DeAngelo Williams gaining over 100 yards 

He had one game with over 100 yards this season (way back in Week 3). Including that game, he averaged 56 yards per game. Williams averages a solid 4.2 yards per carry, but he would need to carry the ball close to 25 times to reach 100 yards. Considering he averaged about 12 carries per game from Week 5 on, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

3) Steve Smith gaining over 100 yards

He’s an experienced veteran — and it wouldn’t shock me to see him have a breakout game — but the fact remains that he didn’t gain over 70 yards in a single game this season. He is also injured and might not even play.

Madden Says: Chargers – 7, Broncos – 29

Key Players/Stats

What will come true

1) Knowshon Moreno gaining over 50 yards receiving

Moreno had over 500 yards receiving on the season and caught 60 passes. He gained over 50 yards receiving four times this season, so this isn’t the safest prediction, but all it takes is one long catch and run. Plus, Moreno has been targeted 23 times the past four weeks, including six targets against the Chargers in Week 15.

2) Ryan Mathews scoring a touchdown

This was my prediction last weekend, and while it didn’t come true, I’m not afraid to make it again. The Chargers will look to control the clock against the Broncos, which means Mathews will need to be a workhorse. He carried the ball 29 times against the Broncos in Week 15 — tied for his most carries in a game all season. He also scored in that game.

Of course, this all hinges on whether or not Mathews plays. If he doesn't, it would be a tough loss for the Chargers. Don't expect the same type of product from Ronnie Brown should Mathews be unable to suit up. (Editor's note: Mathews didn't practice on Friday, so this might be on shaky ground.)

What won’t come true 

1) Peyton Manning not throwing a touchdown pass

Really? The guy that threw 55 touchdowns in 16 games is not going to throw one this weekend? The guy that has thrown a touchdown in every game (sans 2011) dating back to Week 10 of 2010 is going to fail to toss one in this game? OK.

2) Philip Rivers not throwing a touchdown pass

It’s not as crazy as Manning not throwing one, but it’s still crazy. Rivers has thrown a touchdown in every game this season and had the fourth-most touchdowns among all quarterbacks.

3) Julius Thomas catching seven passes

Believe it or not, “Orange Julius” caught more than six passes in a game just once this season. Manning spreads the ball around so well that it’s hard to see Thomas catching seven.