Larry Fitzgerald and Keenan Allen are primed to regress
It sounds overly simplistic, but targets are the foundation of receiver scoring; if the quarterback isn’t throwing a receiver the ball, his chances of scoring are nil. That’s why you’ll find great resources at PFF and elsewhere tracking targets to identify receivers who could be over- or undervalued based on fantasy production that is out of alignment with targets. If a receiver is getting lots of targets but not much production, positive regression could be on the horizon, or vice-versa.
The focus of this column is to take a deeper look at receiver targets by using not only the absolute numbers, but also looking at a receiver’s percentage or share of team targets. Absolute target numbers are useful but can be misleadingly high or low depending on small-sample pass volume. In addition, comparing a receiver’s target share to his previous year’s helps us gauge the sustainability of early-season usage.