JVM: Baltimore Ravens
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Janke Value Model” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2013. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it HERE, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2013
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Baltimore Ravens:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Elvis Dumervil, Edge Rusher
Arriving in Baltimore after a faxing error forced the Denver Broncos to cut him, Dumervil thrived as a pass rusher for the Ravens. If you were picking apart his play, you could point to the fact that he was used primarily as a pass rusher and didn’t really play a full time role. However it wasn’t as if his play against the run was lacking when he was on the field, just that the Ravens chose to keep him fresh to rush the passer, something he did very well in 2013.
2013 Cap Hit: $2.5m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $10.4m
Value Differential: +$7.9m
2. Eugene Monroe, Left Tackle
Taking advantage of his low cap hit in 2013 after arriving from the Jacksonville Jaguars via trade, Monroe had an excellent year at left tackle for the Ravens. He now appears to be their top priority this offseason and for good reason. Our top offensive tackle available this free agency period, he’s young enough to give them the stability they have lacked at the position since Jonathan Ogden retired.
2013 Cap Hit: $550k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $4.1m
Value Differential: +$3.6m
3. Justin Tucker, Kicker
Entering the league as an undrafted free agent in 2012, Tucker is one of the lowest paid kickers in the league. That’s unlikely to last for long however, with his big leg driving him towards being one of this positions highest paid very soon. He’s worth every penny to the Ravens right now, as evidenced by his 61 yard game winner against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football last year.
2013 Cap Hit: $485k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $3m
Value Differential: +$2.5m
4. Daryl Smith, LB – Cap: $1.1m, JVM: $3.4m, Value Differential: +$2.3m
5. Torrey Smith, WR – Cap: $930k, JVM: $3m, Value Differential: +$2.1m
6. Pernell McPhee, ED — Cap: $600k, JVM: $2.5m, Value Differential: +$1.9m
7. Josh Bynes, LB — Cap: $490k, JVM: $2.1m, Value Differential: +$1.7m
8. Arthur Jones, DL — Cap: $2m, JVM: $3.6m, Value Differential: +$1.6m
9. James Ihedigbo, S — Cap: $600k, JVM: $2.2m, Value Differential: +$1.6m
10. Marlon Brown, WR — Cap: $400k, JVM: $1.2m, Value Differential: +800k
1. Terrell Suggs, Edge Defender
With Ray Lewis and Ed Reed gone, much was expected of Suggs to step up as the top player on defense. What hurt his value wasn’t even so much that he played poorly, just that his cap hit was so high. He’s always been a fairly ordinary pass rusher, putting up solid pass rushing numbers but doing so on a fairly high pass rushing snap count, and his run defense just wasn’t at the same level as it had been in the past.
2013 Cap Hit: $13m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $6.5m
Value Differential: -$6.5m
2. Haloti Ngata, Defensive Tackle
Like Suggs, Ngata’s value is hurt by his high cap hit. He’s a good player, and the best defensive lineman the Ravens have, but he’s paid as one of the best at the position, something he just isn’t at this stage in his career. With his cap hit set to be $15 million in 2014, it’ll take a pretty spectacular effort for him to not be among their most overvalued next year too.
2013 Cap Hit: $11.5m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $5.1m
Value Differential: -$6.4m
3. Ray Rice, HB
It’s fair to say that the Ravens running game in general was a mess in 2013. We learned after the season was over that Rice had played through some injuries, and it definitely showed in his play on the field. Failing to force missed tackles with any frequency, he was our lowest graded running back, while being paid as one of the best in the league, not a good combination.
2013 Cap Hit: $5.8m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $700k
Value Differential: -$5.1m
4. Michael Oher, RT – Cap: $5m, JVM: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$3.5m
5. Jacoby Jones, WR — Cap: $4.9m, JVM: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$3.4m
6. Joe Flacco, QB — Cap: $6.8m, JVM: $4.4m, Value Differential: -$2.4m
7. Jameel McClain, LB — Cap: $2.7m, JVM: $440k, Value Differential: -$2.3m
8. Vonta Leach, FB — Cap: $2.8m, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: -$2m
9. Marshal Yanda, RG — Cap: $7.4m, JVM: $5.7m, Value Differential: -$1.7m
10. Dennis Pitta, TE — Cap: $2m, JVM: $550k, Value Differential: -$1.5m
Summary – Team Value Differential: -$13.5m
With the disappointment seen on the field, the fact that the Ravens had the 12th worst Team Value Differential should come as no surprise. Give the team credit though, they have already taken steps to remedy that. McClain and Leach have already been cut, while they extended Suggs’ deal and lowered his 2014 cap hit. The problem for them going forward will be Flacco’s cap hit which rises over the next few years, which will have a negative impact on their TVD unless he steps up his play.
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