How Predictive Are Rookie Running Back Statistics?

On ESPN.com’s June 19th edition of Fantasy Focus Football Podcast, Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz were discussing the 2013 prospects of Giants’ lead back David Wilson. As part of his argument for Wilson, Berry noted a stat available in the Fantasy Statistics area of our Fantasy Gold package.

The stat: Wilson’s fantasy points-per-opportunity (carries + pass routes) was highest among all running backs with at least 70 carries during the 2013 season.

Ravitz was not completely sold on the stat, pointing out something oft overlooked in the world of statistics: perspective. If you’ve ever spent time discussing advanced statistics with someone not completely on board with the movement, you’ve surely heard the infamous “you can make stats say pretty much anything” one-liner.

And that person is right.

In fact, did you know that Chris Pressley led all backs on a per-opportunity basis last year? That’s right—Bengals’ fullback Chris Pressley. I mean, sure he only caught one of his three targets on the year. But that one catch happened to go for a one-yard touchdown, which left him with a position-best 1.01 PPO. If I was trolling around a forum, I might say something like “Hey Peterson28Fan, Chris Pressley is better than your boy AD!”

See what I did there. I took a 100 percent accurate advanced stat and manipulated it into a horribly inaccurate conclusion.

My example was probably a better example of sample size manipulation than distortion based on perspective, but both are issues that cause headaches for stat nerds like me.

Today, I’m going to help Matt and Nate out by offering some perspective on the David Wilson statistic. The key question – Can rookie-season numbers (specifically yards-per-carry)—regardless of how small or large the sample—provide us with useful information relative to the player’s future production?

To do this, I scanned over every rookie back who carried the ball at least once during the last 2008-to-2011 seasons. I charted and compared each player’s rookie-season, sophomore-season, and post-rookie production. I broke up the list of 87 backs into four tiers, which were split based on rookie-season yards-per-carry. From there, I simply examined the career path of each player to-date in order to determine how indicative of future success that first year was.

The Studs

Our first chart shows the 20 running backs who averaged at least 5.0 yards-per-carry during their rookie season—usually a number that will generate some hype. Interestingly, of the top-five backs in terms of carries, only one was selected in the first two rounds of the draft (Chris Johnson). DeMarco Murray and Shonn Greene were third rounders, while LeGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory went undrafted. All five players have had their ups and downs, but only Johnson has really panned out. Murray and Ivory are projected 2013 starters and there’s still a lot to like there. Greene will spell Johnson for the next few years and Blount has been a major disappointment.

We see quite a few players here who were labeled as breakout candidates or sleepers heading into their sophomore campaign. Tashard Choice, Stevan Ridley, Jamaal Charles, Rashad Jennings, Felix Jones, and Javon Ringer certainly fit that bill. Of those six names, it’s fair to say that two (Ridley, Charles) definitely panned out. Choice, Jennings, and Ringer aren’t very good. The jury remains out on Jones (4.7 career YPC…seriously), but he’s now buried on the Eagles’ depth chart after a poor 2012 season with Dallas.

You’ll notice that I included a career-to-date “grade” for each player. This is obviously very subjective, but this, in some ways, is a subjective conversation. I gave two of the 20 backs an ‘A’ and four backs a ‘B’. Everyone else was a ‘C’ or worse. What’s interesting to me is that, of the nine backs who carried the ball at least 65 times as a rookie, I gave six either a ‘B’ or ‘A’. There’s something to be said for that, especially when you consider that there is zero correlation between those grades and draft round. It appears that, regardless of draft round or situation, rookies who rack up a generous number of touches and manage a strong YPC tend to pan out.

Also interesting here is that, of the 11 backs with fewer than 60 rookie-season totes, I graded none above a ‘C’. In fact, only Jones and Evan Royster were above a ‘D’. This tells us that success on a small sample of rookie-season carries is not a good indicator of future success. In fact, if anything, it’s an ominous one. Of course, it’s worth noting that only Jones was selected earlier than the fifth round.

The Above Average

Our next chart includes backs who were at or above average (4.0-to-4.9 YPC) as rookies.

We do see somewhat of a correlation here between rookie-season carries and draft round. Of the top-11 names on the list (sorted by rookie-season carries), nine were drafted in the first three rounds, including four first-round picks. Of the bottom-12 backs, only Joe McKnight and Taiwan Jones (now a cornerback) were drafted prior to the fifth round.

What jumps out at me here is the lack of correlation between a large rookie-season workload and future success. Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Beanie Wells lead this group of backs. None have panned out. The jury remains out on Jonathan Stewart, Ryan Mathews, and Darren McFadden, but so far, so underwhelming. LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Arian Foster obviously stand out in this crowd. All three are elite NFL backs, but only Foster really stood out as a runner during his rookie season. McCoy had an average YPC in a part-time role. Rice was similar and failed to score on 108 carries. Foster, meanwhile, caught our attention with a 4.8 YPC and three touchdowns on 54 late-season carries.

Now let’s focus on the “sophomore hype” guys. Slaton, Smith, Wells, Stewart, McCoy, Mathews, Helu, Hunter, McFadden, Rice, Scott, Foster, Gerhart, McKnight, Jones, and Torain should all be in the conversation. Some were first-round picks (Slaton), some were late-round upside targets (Scott), and others were high-upside handcuffs (Gerhart). Of the 16 backs listed, only five received a grade of ‘B’ or better. I gave ‘C’ grades to Mathews (was great early, but 2012 was bad) and a pair of effective handcuffs (Hunter/Gerhart). That all adds up to exactly half of our “hype” backs progressing into, at least, an average contributor.

On a more positive note (one that is key when evaluating a first-round pick like Wilson), four of the seven backs picked in the first two rounds earned a grade of ‘B’ or better. Wells received the only grade below a ‘D’.

The Below Average

Our third group includes backs who underwhelmed in the YPC department during their rookie season. Grouped here are the 30 rookies with YPC marks between 3.0 and 3.9.

Matt Forte handled a massive rookie-season workload (highest carry total in our study) and was certainly applauded for his performance. He only averaged 3.9 YPC, however, which is below average. Including the other seven backs who handled at least 100 carries as a rookie, only Forte clearly panned out. Knowshon Moreno (not good), Jahvid Best (injuries), and Mark Ingram (underwhelming so far) were first round picks.

We see several other first-round picks on this list, including Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown, and C.J. Spiller. Of our six first-round backs, I’ve given only two grades of ‘B’ or better (Mendenhall, Spiller). Moreno, Brown, and Best haven’t lived up to expectations and while Ingram still has a shot to develop, he’s a ‘C’ at best.

Note that of the 19 backs in this group with no more than 70 carries, I graded only one above a ‘C’ (Mendenhall). Jacquizz Rodgers and Shane Vereen were the only two backs better than a ‘D’.

It’s pretty clear that underwhelming rookie-season production—regardless of draft round—is not a good sign for long-term success.

The Bad

Our fourth group includes the 14 backs who couldn’t manage a 3.0 YPC mark during their rookie season.

None of the 14 backs were drafted before the third round, so it’s fair to say that expectations were low. Glen Coffee (the only third-rounder here) retired after one underwhelming season. Mike Goodson is dealing with some legal issues, but like his current teammate Bilal Powell, has been competent enough to earn a ‘C’. The only positive grade on this list belongs to Mike Tolbert, who has been an effective, versatile player thus far in his career.

Of the 14 players, I gave nine an ‘F’ grade. It’s safe to cut your losses on late round fliers who put up poor rookie-season YPC production.

The Early-Rounders

As mentioned earlier, David Wilson was a first-round pick, so it’s probably worth checking in on the success rate of early-round picks. Wilson was actually the last pick in the first round, so we’ll include both first and second round backs.

Of the six ‘A’ grades I gave out today, four belong to players drafted in the first two rounds. Interestingly, three of the six belong to backs drafted in the second round. Of the 18 backs drafted in the first two rounds, we see four ‘B’ grades, five ‘C’ grades, four ‘D’ grades, and one ‘F’.

If we sort by rookie-season YPC, there is a slight correlation between early and long-term production. Of the top-10 backs in terms of YPC, six we can officially say panned out. Only Wells and Jones are clear busts. Of the other eight backs, only Spiller and Mendenhall have succeeded. There remains some optimism for Vereen and Ingram, but they haven’t shown a ton thus far.

You may also notice that, if we combined all 18 early-round backs, the carry total for the unit jumped by nearly 600 carries in year-two. Additionally, the unit’s sophomore-season YPC increased by a half yard and career YPC was boosted to a strong 4.5 mark. If we grouped every other rookie back in this study, we show a 4.3 rookie-season YPC, followed by a 4.3 mark in year-two, and a 4.2 post-rookie mark. Early-round rookies tend to improve over the following seasons, while mid-to-late round picks stay around the same YPC.

The 2012 Rookies

There were a barrage of impact rookie backs in 2012, but which ones should we feel better (or worse) about after our study?

Earlier, I came to the conclusion that regardless of draft round or situation, rookies who rack up a generous number of touches and manage a very strong YPC tend to pan out.

That being the case, there should be quite a bit of optimism surrounding David Wilson and Bernard Pierce. Both saw at least 70 carries as rookies and both were at or above 5.0 YPC.

What does Lamar Miller have in common with Choice, Helu, Hunter, McKnight, Jones, Carter, Johnson, Goodson, Harper, Powell, and Turbin? That’s the list of backs drafted in the fourth round since 2008. Sure, Miller had a strong 4.9 YPC as a rookie, but Choice (5.1) and McKnight (4.8) were good, as well. Additionally, we saw in our second chart that decent, but not elite rookie-season production does not necessarily correlate with long-term success.

Cyrus Gray, LaMichael James, and most notably Isaiah Pead were very strong on a small sample of rookie-season carries. We learned earlier, however, that there is no correlation between that success and long-term outlook. In fact, as you may recall, no player in that category has panned out over the last five years.

This study also shows that we should be pessimistic about Trent Richardson’s chances of developing into a stud. Of all backs selected in the first two rounds since 2008, none with a sub 3.9 rookie-season YPC have exploded into an elite player. In fact, many have struggled. Richardson is in a category with Ingram, Moreno, Spiller, Vereen, Thomas, Brown, Best, and Mendenhall. Fellow 2013 rookies Vick Ballard and Ronnie Hillman also fit the bill.

Doug Martin is in good company. Among seven other first or second round backs who handled 100 or more rookie-season carries and managed a YPC above 4.0, three have been in the elite conversation (Johnson, McCoy, Rice), three have been decent or better (McFadden, Stewart, Mathews), and only one has really failed (Wells). This study offers optimism about Martin’s future.

What about late-round picks Bryce Brown (seventh), Daryl Richardson (seventh), and Alfred Morris (sixth)? Each of the four backs was in the 4.8 to 4.9 YPC range and eclipsed the 95-carry mark. Of the 87 players in our study, only eight managed a YPC above 4.5 on at least 95 carries. Of those eight, three were first round picks (Johnson, Wells, Stewart), three were third round picks (Murray, Greene, Slaton), and two went undrafted (Ivory, Blount). Obviously, there’s not much of a comparison to be made here, but the odds of all three guys panning out is slim. Morris, of course, appears to be the real deal.

Conclusion

That turned out to be a fairly lengthy study, but we generated some useful information. We now know that a small sample of rookie data is not much of an indicator of future success. In fact, rookies who don’t see much of a workload tend struggle to progress into a strong players. On the other hand, strong production on a decent to large workload has meant good production over time. If anything, you should come away from this study feeling better about David Wilson and Doug Martin and a bit more wary of spending a pick on Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller.