Gaming the Game - Week 7 DFS Strategy
The more people you talk to about DFS, the more you realize how many different approaches there are to building a lineup. From what position you start with, to your overall spending plan (studs/scrubs or all average), to how you decide between two very similar options at a position, your answers and mine will likely be different.
I like to start with a broad overview of the week or night. Starting with Vegas lines I rank the games from highest to lowest over/under. Next I use a combination of PFF grades and traditional offensive/defensive stats to pick out the best offensive/defensive mismatches for rushing and passing. This gives me a rough list of games and players to target, all before I even look at salaries. What I do next is to go position by position, loosely classifying players according to their expected output and confidence interval around that expectation. Without doing actual math, let me illustrate what I mean and why I think it’s a useful approach for building lineups.