Gaming the Game - NFL DFS Strategy Week 12
We’re having a lot of fun with this Venn Diagram approach to making a DFS lineup. I really like how it formalizes what I think a lot of us try to do in our heads every week. We know the kind of players that we want in our lineup, but who our heads say they are and who the numbers say they are don’t always match up.
After a strong Week 10, last week our Venn lineup didn’t fare as well. Frankly, it sucked. It had Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Graham, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Dwayne Allen who either got hurt or just didn’t play well. Bright spots Emmanuel Sanders, AJ Green, and Packers D weren’t enough to push this team into the top half of the field in the 50/50’s I entered it in on DraftKings (125.32 pts).
That doesn’t mean the method doesn’t have value. This week I thought we’d zoom in a little bit and use the last four weeks for our volume category instead of the whole season. To review the general philosophy, go here. Using the last four weeks obviously biases the field. We’ll exclude players who’s season long totals were buoyed by a very strong start but have been struggling recently.
We’ll get to consider those who either weren’t on the field or were relegated to back up duties to start the year, but who have seen opportunities open up over the past month or so. I know it’s a questionable statistical move to willingly use a smaller data set but in this case, we know enough about football to understand why there are discrepancies between season long totals and recent totals and take advantage of them.