Freeman remains a DFS value
Many of the Week 3 picks panned out well, including: Cam Newton, Devonta Freeman, Kendall Wright, Brandon Marshall, Allen Hurns, and Latavius Murray. I’m confident we’re going to carry that momentum into Week 4. After sorting through all of the price sheets, I’ve found a lot of good values this week.
As I do every week, I use my prediction models—which I’ve written about in the past—to find the players with the most value at each position on all three major DFS sites. I not only use players’ stats, I also account for injuries and matchups in these projections.
Excluded from this article are most of the well-known fantasy studs and superstars. Frankly, with a few exceptions, I don’t think it’s necessary to write about them. Some of those excluded stars with good values this week includes: Aaron Rodgers (DraftKings), Randall Cobb (DraftKings, FanDuel), Jordan Reed (all three sites), Matt Forte (FanDuel), Greg Olsen (FanDuel), Tyler Eifert (FanDuel), and Latavius Murray (DraftKings, FanDuel).
Now, lets dive into some of my most valuable players for Week 4. I’ve included many of the players’ projected floor and ceiling scores (PPR). These were calculated using my prediction models. Because I used a high C.I., the ranges are large. They give us clear indication of who has good GPP potential (high ceiling), and who should be used primarily in cash games (high floor). The prices listed below each player are the ones I consider to be a good values.
Derek Carr (GPP) at Chicago Bears
Carr has been a strong fantasy quarterback over the past two weeks. In that time, he had the third most passing yards (665) and passing touchdowns (5) in the league. This week, he will be facing the struggling Bears defense, the worst unit he has seen all season.
Through Week 3, the Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks a 70 percent completion rate and an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Granted, they have faced three excellent quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson. Nevertheless, the Bears defense has gotten even worse since Week 3. In that time, they traded away Jared Allen, the unit’s second highest rated player, and Jon Bostic. Simply put: this is a great matchup for Carr!
He is cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In fact, DraftKings has him priced like a backup quarterback. His projected floor is 10 points, and his ceiling is 34 points. That makes him a great play in cash games and GPP on both sites.
Dave Pratt, DPT, writes two weekly columns focused on fantasy-relevant injuries and DFS values. Follow him on Twitter @PFF_DavePratt