Four Fantasy Notes: NFC South
With training camps opening around the NFL, it’s time to take one more offseason spin around the league. Below are some interesting stats from 2014 that will be relevant as we head into the new season. It will help get us through the “I’m finally fully healthy” soundbites, until the real news starts flying in. Let’s head over to the NFC South.
It’s no secret that Roddy White, who turns 34 years old in November, is in decline. His PFF passing-game grade over the last two years is a cumulative -15.4, after he tallied a +23.7 in the two prior seasons. Even during his eight healthiest weeks (Weeks 1-2 and Weeks 11-17), when he was the PPR WR11, he still graded a -3.3.
As he showed during those eight weeks, he was still useful – and White’s current mid-seventh round MFL10 ADP, as the WR32, is not prohibitive. Yet his status as a “safe” pick is based on reputation. He derived just 80 percent of his PPR points from non-touchdown stats, whereas in the previous three seasons, that number hovered between 83 percent and 89 percent.
That, and his advanced age, shouldn’t land White on the “Do Not Draft” list. But with positive touchdown regression on tap for Julio Jones, other receivers (and maybe even an actual tight end) to be accounted for, and another 632 pass attempts and 64.1 percent pass rate (both third-highest) unlikely, White is not as “safe” as he once was.
Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and was named 2013 Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman