Four Fantasy Notes: AFC South
With training camps opening around the NFL, it’s time to take one more offseason spin around the league. Below are some interesting stats from 2014 that will be relevant as we head into the new season. It will help get us through the “I’m in the best shape of my life” soundbites, until the real news starts flying in. Let’s start off with the AFC South.
DeAndre Hopkins was the seventh-highest scoring wideout during his 11 weeks playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He averaged 1.74 fantasy points per target. Hopkins ranked 62nd without FitzMagic, and averaged just 0.53 points per target. The Amish Rifle, if you haven’t heard, is now a Jet.
The “Hopkins has produced with bad quarterbacks before, and he’ll do it again” narrative ignores that he produced with a good quarterback. Thanks to the RotoViz AYA App, we see that with bad quarterbacks like Matt Schaub (7.0 Adjusted Yards per Attempt), Case Keenum (5.9 AYA), Ryan Mallett (4.3 AYA), and Tom Savage (0.9 AYA), Hopkins didn’t even sniff what he accomplished with Fitzpatrick (11.3 AYA).
Some are touting Brian Hoyer as Nuk’s savior because “look what he did for Josh Gordon!” Yet Gordon’s AYA with Hoyer was a pathetic 4.3, well behind Brandon Weeden (11.1 AYA), Jason Campbell (9.3 AYA), and even Johnny Manziel (8.2 AYA) and Thad Lewis (5.6 AYA). Along with defenses’ undivided attention due to a talent-deficient passing corps, Hopkins will see a truckload of targets – of questionable quality.
Pat Thorman is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and was named 2013 Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can follow him on Twitter at @Pat_Thorman