The NFL draft is a little more than a month away, and prospect analysis is in full swing. From mock drafts, to film analysis, to quantitative models, there are opinions flying around about the 2016 class.
One of the easiest ways to put a prospect into context for the average NFL fan is to compare him to a current or former NFL player. If I tell you that Colorado State wide receiver Rashard Higgins is a smooth route runner, it’s helpful. But, directly comparing Higgins to an all-time great like Isaac Bruce gives the reader a much deeper, more tangible perspective on what type of player Higgins could become.
A major issue with player comparisons is that we’re more likely to think about high-profile hits or busts when searching through our mental rolodex of past players. This can contribute to extreme feelings on the likelihood of a prospect's success, when the true range of outcomes includes not only great players and utter failures, but also middling performers.
A great way to keep our biases in check and come up with realistic player comparisons is to use the most objective data possible. We’ve already shown that draft age, career market share of receiving yards, final-year market share of receiving yards, touchdowns per game, and receiving efficiency (yards per reception) are predictive of NFL success for wide receiver prospects. So let's take those numbers, in addition to a prospect's physical profile (height, weight and 40-yard dash), and find the most comparable past NFL players.
Specifically, we’re going to use k-means clustering algorithm and divide all past and current NFL prospects from 2000-2016 into buckets based on the similarity of their collegiate production and physical measurables. Then, we can see where this year’s prospects fall, and learn a little more about their possible career paths by studying the current and former NFL players in the same bucket.
Name | School | Draft Year | Draft Pos | Draft Age | Height | Weight | Forty | Career Rec MS | FY Rec MS | FY TD/Gm | FY Yds/Rec |
Leonte Carroo | Rutgers | 2016 | NA | 22.4 | 72 | 211 | 4.50 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 1.25 | 20.7 |
Dez Bryant | Oklahoma State | 2010 | 24 | 22 | 74 | 225 | 4.52 | 0.35 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 19.0 |
Hakeem Nicks | North Carolina | 2009 | 29 | 21 | 73 | 212 | 4.51 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 18.0 |
Quincy Morgan | Kansas State | 2001 | 33 | 24 | 73 | 211 | 4.48 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 1.08 | 18.2 |
Justin McCareins | Northern Illinois | 2001 | 124 | 23 | 74 | 209 | 4.51 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.91 | 17.7 |
* MS = market share; FY = final year
While our draft team at PFF thinks that Leonte Carroo is a top-five wide receiver prospect and potential dynamic playmaker in the NFL, the larger draft community doesn't share the enthusiasm. Carroo is the 11th ranked wide receiver prospect by NFL Draft Scout, placing his likely draft position in the third round. The unbiased numbers say that our analysis is more accurate. NFL successes like Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks top the list of Carroo's comparables, with three of the four drafted in the first 35 picks.
Bryant is one of the NFL's premier play-makers, but some might not remember how great Nicks was earlier in his career, averaging over 1,000 yards receiving and nine touchdowns during his second and third seasons. Carroo matches Nicks very closely in terms of size, speed, and production. If Carroo ends up being the next Hakeem Nicks, that's not a poor outcome. Nicks was a rising star before a series of leg, ankle and foot injuries sapped his athleticism.
Quincy Morgan and Justin McCareins are two names from the more distant past, both entering the NFL in 2001. Neither receiver had a particularly distinguished career, but both were productive NFL players. Morgan had nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in his second year, and McCareins, despite a relatively low draft position, played for eight years and accumulated almost 4,000 receiving yards.
Carroo's comparables are uniformly great perfect, but his solid physical profile, dominate collegiate market shares and touchdown scoring prowess all point to a successful, and possibly elite NFL career.
Name | School | Draft Year | Draft Pos | Draft Age | Height | Weight | Forty | Career Rec MS | FY Rec MS | FY TD/Gm | FY Yds/Rec |
Rashard Higgins | Colorado State | 2016 | NA | 21.7 | 73 | 196 | 4.64 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.67 | 14.3 |
Bobby Wade | Arizona | 2003 | 139 | 22 | 70 | 193 | 4.66 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 14.9 |
Ryan Grant | Tulane | 2014 | 142 | 24 | 72 | 199 | 4.64 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 13.5 |
David Anderson | Colorado State | 2006 | 251 | 23 | 71 | 192 | 4.57 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 14.2 |
Rashard Higgins doesn't have comparables to match Carroo, with the highest drafted among them going in the fifth round. Bobby Wade was the only one to have a 500-plus-yard receiving season (he had two), but Ryan Grant is still playing.
We can't say that Higgins has no shot at NFL success, but the combination of his smaller size and slower speed limits his upside, despite decent production numbers.
Name | School | Draft Year | Draft Pos | Draft Age | Height | Weight | Forty | Career Rec MS | FY Rec MS | FY TD/Gm | FY Yds/Rec |
Braxton Miller | Ohio State | 2016 | NA | 23.6 | 73 | 201 | 4.50 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 13.6 |
Andre King | Miami (FL) | 2001 | 245 | 28 | 73 | 199 | 4.61 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 13.7 |
Braxton Miller is a unique quarterback-turned-wide-receiver, so we shouldn’t expect former prospects to match him very well. The only receiver who entered the league between 2000-2015 that resembled Miller’s physical and production profile was Andre King. King totaled roughly 350 receiving yards in four NFL seasons, entering the league at 28 yards old after a stint in MLB’s farm system.
Miller is regarded as a phenomenal athlete, but his lack of receiving production makes him a high-risk selection.
Name | School | Draft Year | Draft Pos | Draft Age | Height | Weight | Forty | Career Rec MS | FY Rec MS | FY TD/Gm | FY Yds/Rec |
Sterling Shepard | Oklahoma | 2016 | NA | 23.4 | 70 | 194 | 4.48 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.85 | 15.0 |
Markus Wheaton | Oregon State | 2013 | 79 | 22 | 71 | 189 | 4.45 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.85 | 13.7 |
Dwayne Harris | East Carolina | 2011 | 176 | 24 | 70 | 203 | 4.53 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.77 | 11.1 |
Robert Herron | Wyoming | 2014 | 185 | 22 | 69 | 193 | 4.48 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.75 | 12.9 |
Sterling Shepard’s list of comparables has some names most would recognize, but nothing special. Markus Wheaton was a third round pick, took a step forward last year, and could break out with Martavis Bryant out for the year on violations of the league’s substance abuse policy.
Dwayne Harris has primarily been a kick returner in his five-year career, and Robert Herron was waived by the Buccaneers last pre-season after having only 58 receiving yards in his rookie year.
Name | School | Draft Year | Draft Pos | Draft Age | Height | Weight | Forty | Career Rec MS | FY Rec MS | FY TD/Gm | FY Yds/Rec |
Pharoh Cooper | South Carolina | 2016 | NA | 21.3 | 71 | 203 | 4.50 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.67 | 14.7 |
Donnie Avery | Houston | 2008 | 33 | 24 | 71 | 192 | 4.43 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.54 | 16.0 |
Chris Givens | Wake Forest | 2012 | 96 | 23 | 71 | 198 | 4.41 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 16.0 |
Lavon Brazill | Ohio | 2012 | 206 | 23 | 71 | 192 | 4.48 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.79 | 16.0 |
Pharoh Cooper didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, so I conservatively estimated his time at 4.5 seconds based on media reports. Cooper’s comps include some decent NFL contributors, like Donny Avery and Chris Givens, but no stars. Avery was an early second round pick, which would be a fantastic draft position for Cooper.
It is notable that Cooper’s comps are all lighter by five-to-11 pounds, so he could have more upside in the NFL, which is populated by bigger receivers.
We’ll tackle the top-tier prospects in the next post, including Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Michael Thomas.
Kevin Cole is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy. You can follow him on Twitter at @Cole_Kev