There is an instinct in fantasy to see a breakout performance and assume it will repeat the next year. We want what is good to continue to be good. But obviously, that isn’t always the case. And in the case of evaluating the Jaguars and their fantasy breakout in 2015, it’s easy — they will not repeat that performance in 2016, because they don’t want to.
Bortles and the long ball
Let’s start with Blake Bortles, because there are a lot of people expecting him to repeat in 2016, as evidenced by him being the seventh quarterback off the board in early ADP. That would indicate an expectation that Bortles will throw as much as he did a year ago and maintain the same efficiency on his deep ball.
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