Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy winners and losers from the early-season schedule

SANTA CLARA, CA - OCTOBER 23: Jacquizz Rodgers #32 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game at Levi's Stadium on October 23, 2016 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Compared to most major sports, the NFL’s 16-game season doesn’t allow for us to make a ton of changes and adapt quickly. Hot starts can go a long way, particularly when it comes to fantasy football leagues and the race to get into your league’s fantasy playoffs.

Evaluating early-season schedules can be a beneficial way to find players with hidden upside (or downside) that can help kickstart your fantasy squad off to a successful September. Taking last year’s end-of-season statistics and incorporating future projection based off each team’s offseason moves isn’t a sure-fire way to find success, but until we start seeing the 2017 version of each NFL team take shape, it’s one way to unearth potential based on schedule. Let’s dive into what projects to be some early-season winners and losers in fantasy football, based on their opening schedules.

Winners

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While teammate Doug Martin is busy serving the final three games of his four-game suspension, Rodgers has a bevy of easy matchups to start the year as Tampa Bay’s presumed starter. Two of his first opponents (MIA and CHI) were among the six teams that gave up the most rushing yards a year ago. MIN (Week 3) allowed the 13th-most. The Dolphins allowed the sixth-most receptions to receiving backs and we’ve seen the versatile Rodgers pick up fantasy points on both the ground and through the air during his career. We saw last year that the coaching staff isn’t afraid to feed Rodgers the ball. During his first two starts, Rodgers had a combined 62 touches and topped 100 yards in both games on the road. That’s some incredible volume, and we’re currently seeing Rodgers available at the turn in Rounds 10-11 according to FantasyFootballCalculator ADP as the RB47. Rodgers has a chance to potentially unseat Martin as the lead back in Tampa Bay. His early-season schedule should only help enhance that opportunity.

Minnesota Vikings pass attack

The Vikings enter the 2017 campaign with a slew of juicy matchups. Six of their first eight games come against teams that ranked in the worse half of passing yards allowed last year. Six of those eight also rank in the worse half of passing touchdowns allowed. Sam Bradford could potentially be this year’s skeleton key at quarterback after setting career-highs in both completion percentage (71.6) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.3). Now with a full offseason to work with the Vikings’ pass-catchers, we could see this offense expand in Year 2 with Bradford challenging defenses vertically a bit more. The return of a healthy Stefon Diggs will be huge for this offense, as Diggs was an absolute playmaker when left off the injury report, averaging 18.86 PPR points. Kyle Rudolph ranked first among all pass-catchers in end-zone targets and targets inside the 10- and 20-yard lines, and he has the easiest strength of schedule among all tight ends. The Vikings pass offense presents some interesting early-season stacking options that may go overlooked by the masses in DFS.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Gordon enters the season playing three straight games against teams that ranked bottom-10 in rushing yards allowed last season to opposing running backs. After letting Danny Woodhead go to the Ravens, there isn’t any real competition for Gordon this year. Last year, Gordon had 10 games with at least 20 touches. He finished with the fourth-most runs of 15-plus yards (16) and was top-12 in tackles avoided (34). Gordon’s opening schedule consists of travelling to Denver followed by back-to-back home matchups facing Miami and Kansas City. Gordon could easily be fantasy’s top running back by Week 4 if the Chargers can keep up their heavy number of red zone trips from last year (top-5).

Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey, RBs, Carolina Panthers

Carolina fans eager to see rookie McCaffrey excel might not have to wait long. While he’s already causing a commotion on Twitter with his training camp gifs, the Panthers’ opening schedule could see that immediately translate to the first few weeks of the regular season. The Panthers open at San Francisco before two games at home against Buffalo and New Orleans. All three of these teams ranked inside the top-four in both fantasy points and rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs last year. The veteran Stewart won’t simply be erased from this offense and he’ll continue to carry fantasy upside to start the year while McCaffrey gets acclimated to the speed of the NFL. Stewart carries significant touchdown potential to start the year and McCaffrey could shine against a team like the Saints, who allowed the most receiving yards to running backs in 2016.

Losers

Jordan Reed, TE, Washington

Prior to landing on the PUP list, I already had Reed as a player I’ll likely be fading in the early part of the year in DFS. Reed starts out with a tough schedule playing against three teams (vs PHI, @ LAR, vs KC) that finished in the top-six of fewest receptions allowed to opposing tight ends last year. Reed is a player that thrives on volume, averaging 7.8 targets per game over the last two years. Unfortunately, he might not get off to a hot start given his schedule. The Eagles and Chiefs allowed just two tight ends to see eight or more targets last year. The Rams allowed just one. Reed has averaged over 20 PPR points in the 14 games he has seen at least eight targets over the last two years. He’s scored just 11.5 PPR points per game in the other 12. That’s a sizeable enough sample for me to fade him early in the year on a PPR site like DraftKings and aggressively target him in season-long leagues from frustrated owners during his Week 5 Bye.

Dak Prescott, QB, and Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have a brutal stretch of opposing pass defenses to start the year, and Bryant draws perhaps one of the most difficult cornerback schedules in the league:

Scott Barrett has done some tremendous research digging into how Bryant fares against top cornerbacks in the league, concluding that Bryant is the most cornerback-sensitive wideout in the league over the past three seasons. While opposing defenses will focus primarily on limiting his top receiver, Prescott will have a difficult September, facing the Giants at home before traveling to Denver and Arizona. Between the three of them, those defenses allowed just two quarterbacks to eclipse 25 fantasy points over the course of 2016. The three of them all ranked inside the top-10 in fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Prescott will have his hands full to start the year and could find himself on several waiver wires.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Hyde takes on a rather difficult schedule to open the year, playing at home versus Carolina, at Seattle, versus the Los Angeles Rams, then at Arizona. Carolina allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards last year and Seattle allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. The Rams ranked second in runs that went for zero or negative yards and the Cardinals held Hyde to a 13-attempt, 14- yard, zero-touchdown, one-catchless-target outing in Arizona. Hyde’s got some tough sledding to start the year running behind our 27th-ranked offensive line.

Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

While I’m a big proponent of Rivers over the course of the season, his early-season schedule looks to be a bit daunting from a fantasy perspective. Rivers hits the road in Week 1 playing at Denver (second-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs), Week 3 vs Kansas City (12th-fewest), and Week 5 at the Giants (fewest). Rivers has struggled against his AFC West rivals over the past three years, producing rather substantial splits:

Philip Rivers 2014-2016
vs. AFC West Other games
Games 18 30
PPR 18.26 24.07
Attempts/game 37.5 37.83
Completions/game 22.72 25.23
INTs/game 1.17 1.03
TDs/game 1.56 2.17
Yds/game 249.56 299.23

Rivers has averaged 0.61 fewer touchdowns, 50 fewer receiving yards, and 5.8 fewer fantasy points when facing his divisional rivals over the last three years. He’ll take on three of them in the first six weeks (including Week 6 @ OAK). Rivers has a brutal four-game stretch of @ NYG, @ OAK, vs DEN, and @ NE before the Chargers’ Week 9 Bye. He should be an aggressive waiver-wire claim if he gets dropped. Weeks 13-16, he’ll take on CLE, WSH, @ KC, and @ NYJ, and has the capability to be a potential league winner.

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