The tight end position isn’t as deep as others, often making good performances look great when you factor in consistency. So far this month we have spent some time studying the most consistent fantasy performers at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Now, we’ll wrap up this series with a dive into the tight end position.
Let’s take a look at the top 20 PPR tight ends in the latest PFF Fantasy Rankings and study their track record of consistency since 2014.
We’ve gone week by week to tally the total fantasy points scored at the position and calculated how frequently each player had a “plus” effort, meaning finished above the average total points for tight ends for that given week.
Here are some observations from this research:
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
There’s no question that durability is a growing concern when it comes to the Patriots’ perennial All-Pro tight end — Gronk has only started in 54 of his team’s last 80 contests. But if you tally up all his fantasy points over the past three seasons, he’s outscored the next closest tight end on the list by over 3.0 fantasy points per game.
Touchdowns come in bunches, with at least 10 scores in each of his five seasons where he’s played in double-digit games.
If you throw out the two games in which he was mostly used as a decoy in Weeks 3 and 4 last year and the Week 12 matchup where he got hurt early on, Gronk has hit at least 14 PPR fantasy points in 17 of his last 21 games over the past two seasons, counting the playoffs. That includes nine games of at least 20 fantasy points and one of over 30.
His current mid- to late second round ADP is a steep price to pay and could create a hole that is tough for fantasy owners to dig out of. However, those that grab him early and then nail things in the latter rounds will reap the rewards if he actually can stay on the field.
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
Staying on the field has been an even bigger issue for Eifert than it has been for Gronkowski. He has missed 26 of his 48 games during his career in Cincinnati. Entering a contract year, the tight end is hoping for a career season. Perhaps Eifert is more of a top-end option than his current 6.09 ADP suggests.
He does do well in the red zone, with a 45 percent success rate in that range in 2016, when he tallied “plus” starts in four of his last six games. Eifert has 18 touchdowns over his last 20 outings and has produced 9.4 times every 16 games during his career as a Bengal. He led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns in 2015 despite playing in just 13 games.
Injuries haven’t been the only concern with Eifert. The Bengals haven’t fully utilized him in parts of the field outside the red zone as much as some of the other top fantasy TE1’s get used. The staff has talked up throughout the summer though how they would like to get Eifert more involved in 2017.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
A lack of touchdowns keeps Olsen from having explosive weeks, but in PPR leagues his consistency and stability is unmatched.
Unlike some other names on the list, injuries are not a concern for Olsen. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2017 as a member of the Bears and how now started in 144 consecutive contests. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 80 receptions and 1,060 yards per season with three straight years of 1,000-yard seasons.
Olsen is 32, but seems to get better with age. He has posted the best yards per route run marks of his career the past two seasons.
Julius Thomas, Miami Dolphins
Thomas is an interesting name to pop up so high on this list and is worth mentioning. Let’s be clear he’s definitely a TE2 and not a starting option, but there are some signs that have his stock tipping upward. Last year was a disaster for the veteran, now he gets a fresh start.
A reunion with Adam Gase, who coached him in Denver, should help his value and Miami’s offense does have some fire power. Gase utilizes the tight end way more than the system did in Jacksonville. Thomas has “10-touchdown potential” in this offense.
Even if it is Jay Ajayi leading Miami up and down the field, Thomas could become fantasy relevant as a red-zone option. Over the past four seasons, 23 of Thomas’ 33 total touchdowns have come from red-zone targets.
Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers
After getting traded to Green Bay has led to Bennett being one of the more overvalued tight ends in fantasy football. Last year in New England he only finished with 66 targets (21st) as he battled through injuries.
There is an advantage of having Aaron Rodgers throwing you the football, but Bennett will have to compete for targets in the Packers’ passing attack. The ADP has him as TE7, but the consensus PFF ranking projects him as TE11.
Considering the fact he is now on his fifth team in seven seasons and he’s only finished in the top half of tight ends in weekly fantasy points in 35 percent of his games the last three years, you can do better for a seventh-round pick and for your TE1.
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
Ebron posted career highs in receptions (61) and receiving yards (711) in 2016, but still only finished with a “plus” start in six of his 13 contests. His lack of consistency so far has made him a bit frustrating to own in fantasy.
Staying healthy hasn’t come easy for him during his tenure with Lions as he missed eight games over the last three seasons. Drops have also haunted him during his career early in his career, but still just 24 years old the potential is still there for a bigger breakout if he can stay on the field.
Final take
Due to a lack of fantasy production by the position as the hole, finishing in the top half of tight ends might not be as meaningful as it might be at other positions. Still, as you can see it is very tough to find a tight end that does more often than they don’t reach the feat.
Outside of Gronkowski one thing to take away here is paying for one of the early-round tight ends isn’t going to help your fantasy team distinguish itself from the pack. Is Travis Kelce really four rounds better than Delanie Walker and Kyle Rudolph? Probably not.
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